Global cooling?

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4/16/2010 8:02 AM

It will, of course, be interesting to see if the grounding of European flights have any impact on the temperature as the 9/11 grounding had in the US, what do you think?

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4/16/2010 8:06 AM

Shirley, you jest........

H

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4/16/2010 8:13 AM

I dont know how it is with the ashes? "Cool" BBC show:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/dimming_trans.shtml

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4/16/2010 8:20 AM

I thought volcanos were responsible for like 85% of the earths green house gasses?

Then again wasnt the iceage because of a giant dust cloud from an asteroid hitting the earth?

I suppose if Im an environmental group I would play this whole icelandic event to my advantage to gain gov. grants. Seems about what they do on a regular basis.

Probably some dead penguin society that will solicit funds from the US government for penguin aid.

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" You thank whoever is up there, every morning you open your eyes, an everyday you can put your body on a motorcycle, thats pretty good enough for me" -Lars Larson

4/16/2010 8:20 AM

Volcanic activity
Throughout the Little Ice Age, the world also experienced heightened volcanic activity.[52] When a volcano erupts, its ash reaches high into the atmosphere and can spread to cover the whole Earth. This ash cloud blocks out some of the incoming solar radiation, leading to worldwide cooling that can last up to two years after an eruption. Also emitted by eruptions is sulfur in the form of SO2 gas. When this gas reaches the stratosphere, it turns into sulfuric acid particles, which reflect the sun's rays, further reducing the amount of radiation reaching Earth's surface. The 1815 eruption of Tambora in Indonesia blanketed the atmosphere with ash; the following year, 1816, came to be known as the Year Without a Summer, when frost and snow were reported in June and July in both New England and Northern Europe. Other volcanoes that erupted during the era and may have contributed to the cooling include Billy Mitchell (ca. 1580 ± 20 ), Mount Parker (1641), Long Island (Papua New Guinea

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4/16/2010 9:40 AM

The 9/11 grounding did not have an impact on temperature.

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4/16/2010 11:54 AM

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4/16/2010 9:39 PM

Void Main wrote:

The 9/11 grounding did not have an impact on temperature.

WRONG!

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4/17/2010 5:36 AM

Void Main wrote:

The 9/11 grounding did not have an impact on temperature.

bullpen58 wrote:

WRONG!

RIGHT!

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4/17/2010 11:57 AM

Void Main wrote:

The 9/11 grounding did not have an impact on temperature.

bullpen58 wrote:

WRONG!

Void Main wrote:

RIGHT!

HA! Well, it depends on who you ask I'm sure. Rush Limbarf and Co. would most likely say it didn't happen but all those kooky scientists with their new fangled numbers and facts say it did.

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4/17/2010 1:09 PM
Edited Date/Time: 4/17/2016 10:11 PM

bullpen58 wrote:

HA! Well, it depends on who you ask I'm sure. Rush Limbarf and Co. would most likely say it didn't happen but all those kooky scientists with their new fangled numbers and facts say it did.

"all those kooky scientists with their new fangled numbers and facts say it did."


They say that?


Drs. Hong, Yang, Minnis, Hu, and North contradict your assertion. In fact, they published in Geophysical Research Letters 12 Dec 2008:


"It is shown that the increase of the average daily temperature range (DTR) over the United States during the three- day grounding period of 11–14 September 2001 cannot be attributed to the absence of contrails, a subject was debated in several previous studies. The present analysis suggests that the DTR is attributed to the change of low cloudiness."


But what do they know?
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4/17/2010 3:53 PM

Pure, unadulterated speculation and guesstimation. Nothing more.

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4/17/2010 4:44 PM

bullpen58 wrote:

Pure, unadulterated speculation and guesstimation. Nothing more.

Horseshit.

Based on what?

The authors are well-recognized scientists who followed the scientific method to test a hypothesis, formed a conclusion based on the results of the test, documented their results in a peer-reviewed manuscript, and successfully submitted their work for publication.

Those in disagreement with their conclusion are free to similarly publish the basis for the disagreement.

Others can cling to a vain characterization of the authors' work as "speculation" and perpetuate an internet meme.

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4/17/2010 11:19 PM

I'd prefer to just cling to a vain characterization of the authors' work as "speculation" and perpetuate an internet meme rather than go through all the trouble of getting another college degree just to argue with some schmoes about meaningless horse-pucky.

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4/18/2010 7:18 AM

bullpen58 wrote:

Pure, unadulterated speculation and guesstimation. Nothing more.

Heh heh, that's pretty funny. smile It would be easy to prove, just halt flying operations in the US for a 3 day period every month and gather the data. Oh wait, that's not so easy. Hey wait, there is a no fly event going on in Europe right now, go collect some data on that. Don't count the effects that giant volcanic ash cloud might have on your readings though.

So one guy happens to notice the temperature dropped 2 degrees during a 3 day period where there was no flying and puts 2 and 2 together and says "hey, that must have happened because there were no airplanes in the air" and then several other scientists come along and point out "hey, you forgot to take into account the increased lower cloud cover that would more significantly effect temperature" and you say that part is nonsense?

I actually used to work in a weather shop where we did studies on these kinds of things. I actually created global ash content maps when the big one in the Philippines fired off. Someone pointed that 9/11 study out here last year and I had been familiar with it. When I first heard this guy make the claim that flying in the US could account for 2 whole degrees (a VERY significant number) in temperature change I thought "wow, that just can't be, he must have missed something". Turns out when looking at the bigger picture for that period he missed a *lot*. I'm not going to say that contrails have "0" effect on temperature because they do, but it isn't anywhere near as significant as what this guy hypothesized. I effect the temperature when I fart.

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4/18/2010 9:37 AM

My bad.

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4/19/2010 8:38 AM
Edited Date/Time: 4/17/2016 10:14 PM

Wow, I just ran across a great related article from today on the volcanoes, the current one in Iceland and the one I generated maps for from the Philippines:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amGlJGA3ODkU

Icelandic Volcano May Be No Weather-Changing Pinatubo (Update1)



By Stuart Biggs and Jeremy van Loon

April 19 (Bloomberg) -- The volcanic ash spewing from an Icelandic mountain that’s disrupting air travel across Europe may be hundreds of times less than what Mount Pinatubo disgorged in the Philippines in 1991, altering the world’s climate.

The impact of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano is likely to be “virtually non-existent” on the global climate because the eruption is too small and gases are not penetrating the upper atmosphere, Blair Trewin, a senior climatologist at Australia’s National Climate Centre in Melbourne, said in an interview.

“In its current form, we wouldn’t expect the eruption to have any significant global climate effects,” Trewin said today by telephone. “In terms of how much material was being put up into the atmosphere, Pinatubo was several hundred times larger than this has been so far.”

The biggest volcanic eruptions can lower the earth’s temperature for as long as three years by throwing sulfuric gases into the atmosphere that absorb the sun’s radiation, according to NASA. Pinatubo lofted about 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, causing global temperatures to drop by about 1 degree Fahrenheit (0.6 degrees Celsius) until 1993, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Ash Cloud

The ice-covered Icelandic volcano erupted for the second time in four weeks on April 14, spewing ash across Europe’s airspace and causing cancellation of as many as 63,000 flights. An estimated 750 tons of volcanic material is released into the air every second from the 5,466-foot mountain, according to the Icelandic Institute of Earth Sciences’ Web site.

The Pinatubo eruption, which killed as many as 800 people and left 100,000 homeless, had a greater impact on the environment because it lay close to the equator, Trewin said. Air flows in the upper atmosphere from the equator to the poles, meaning Pinatubo’s gases spread over the whole globe, he said.

That wouldn’t be the case with Iceland because of its northern latitude, he said.

Iceland’s volcanic eruption is “much smaller” than Pinatubo, Michael Zemp, a glaciologist with the World Glacier Monitoring Service at the University of Zurich, said today in a telephone interview. Information from colleagues in Iceland indicates “it’s a short-term thing” that is unlikely to have as profound effect as Pinatubo.

Gas, Dust Debris

Eyjafjallajökull is throwing gas, dust and other debris about 12,000 feet (3,650 meters) to 15,000 feet into the air, below the 30,000-feet threshold where ash could reduce temperatures, Elwynn Taylor, an agricultural meteorologist at Iowa State University in Ames, said in an interview last week.

“Volcanic material will only have a longer-term impact on the climate if it gets into the upper atmosphere above rain clouds, otherwise it just gets rained out in a few days,” Trewin said today.

Emissions that reach 10,000 meters into the atmosphere or higher can have an impact on global climate, said Eva Bauer, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, in an interview. More turbulent seasons including winter and spring will also result in longer-term climate effects from volcanic eruptions, she added.

The German Aerospace Center is preparing today to fly over the volcano with a specially-equipped Dassault Aviation SA-made Falcon 20E airplane to measure the amount and quality of ash in the air, Director Johann-Dietrich Woerner said on the group’s Web site. Scientists at the center are currently measuring and assessing the effects of the eruption on the atmosphere using satellites.

‘Global Air Polluters’

“Volcanoes are global air polluters,” said Michael Bittner, an atmospheric researcher at the center, on its Web site. “Volcanic eruptions can have continental or global atmospheric effects, not only regional ones.”

Around the world, 18 volcanoes are currently active including three in Russia’s Kamchatka peninsula, one in Hawaii and one in Alaska, according to the Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program.

This year, 39 volcanoes have erupted, including Yasur on the island of Vanuatu, the institute’s Web site said.

Scientific forecasts for the Icelandic volcano have varied.

Haraldur Eiriksson, a meteorologist at Iceland’s meteorological office, has predicted little change in the ash pattern in Europe at least through April 23.

Sigrun Hreinsdottir, a geophysicist at the University of Iceland in Reykjavik, said volcanic eruptions may continue for months and curtail European air traffic.

The Associated Press reported today that the eruption and the towering column of ash spewing out of it have already declined significantly, citing Icelandic seismologist Bryndis Brandsdottir of the University of Iceland, who based her estimates on seismological radar readings in Reykjavik.

To contact the reporters on this story: Stuart Biggs in Tokyo at sbiggs3@bloomberg.netJeremy van Loon in Berlin at jvanloon@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: April 19, 2010 08:55 EDT

Hmm, I'm going to do a little Google searching to see if my old maps show up...
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4/19/2010 8:40 AM

This is not one I did but it is similar:

Photo

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4/19/2010 12:47 PM

This is Mount Pinatubo all over, again.

They ignored that, too.

Including the Atmospheric Research counducted during and after...

Al Gore didn't invent the Internet; but, he did invent Global Warming.

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I ripped a start from Egypt and I was happy about that.

4/19/2010 5:11 PM

The earth goes through CYCLES, just like about everything on earth does.

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flarider wrote: I don't know shit
and I am damn glad for that

4/19/2010 6:15 PM

If you have no God the earth is your religion. If you're a non believer then you think we are the problem and the earth has certain inalienable rights. If you are a believer then you assume the earth is here to be used to sustain human life which is what it was intended. Most tree huggers are atheists and have no belief in hereafter. Aint no atheists in a fox hole when somebody is shooting at them.

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4/19/2010 6:20 PM

so god created the garden of eden so that we could trash it up ?

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4/19/2010 6:34 PM

Like the garden of eden is something you would believe in?Im waiting for that avatar to blow so you can meet your virgins.

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