buy and run the CR 500 or KX500 production line

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2/23/2018 11:21 AM
Edited Date/Time: 2/23/2018 11:22 AM

This

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uWi3bS66cU&lc=z22hezagsxeghzt21acdp43a0l0ngcmovnq3ilwelmdw03c010c.1519412585400544&feature=em-comments


got me thinking.


What would have happened to the tooling, production line and drawings for the CR500 or KX500 engines? Neither Honda nor Kawasaki are interested in producing these and given there are no more new spares it looks like the lines are defunct.

What if someone would buy the tooling/casing and started producing the engines on their own? The number one debate topic when it comes to dirt bikes is 2T/4T and many seem to miss the big engines. I am one of them. I would queue up to buy a new 500 - even with none of the modern things.

I'll be collecting some data and run some numbers to see how/if this could be done. I know a company who is about to release a KTM 500 engine but the cost is astronomical (think 5 figures for the drop in kit alone)

https://www.facebook.com/brcracingcanada/

thoughts?

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2/23/2018 11:27 AM

stuckmojo wrote:

This

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uWi3bS66cU&lc=z22hezagsxeghzt21acdp43a0l0ngcmovnq3ilwelmdw03c010c.1519412585400544&feature=em-comments


got me thinking.


What would have happened to the tooling, production line and drawings for the CR500 or KX500 engines? Neither Honda nor Kawasaki are interested in producing these and given there are no more new spares it looks like the lines are defunct.

What if someone would buy the tooling/casing and started producing the engines on their own? The number one debate topic when it comes to dirt bikes is 2T/4T and many seem to miss the big engines. I am one of them. I would queue up to buy a new 500 - even with none of the modern things.

I'll be collecting some data and run some numbers to see how/if this could be done. I know a company who is about to release a KTM 500 engine but the cost is astronomical (think 5 figures for the drop in kit alone)

https://www.facebook.com/brcracingcanada/

thoughts?

Considering the numbers of 250 and 300 2 strokes sold currently, how many you'd produce and what the demand would be...

I'm going to say your targeted market would be under 1000 buyers per year, and if that market wants the product would depend on price. For a top quality bike on a product line producing so few bikes and just that model...I'm guessing your retail would be well over $10,000 per bike. If you could produce it cheaper...China route for everything...so many variables.

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If you liked my bike tests from Vital, head to my YouTube channel to see my latest tests and more: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCcgAl-F63686Bfnt44vmrfQ
Instagram: @Michael_Lindsay512

2/23/2018 11:28 AM
Edited Date/Time: 2/23/2018 11:29 AM

You could make a killing if you could get the tools

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2/23/2018 11:28 AM

If you could even get the drawings, which I doubt, this would cost an obscene amount of money for extremely obsolete technology

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2/23/2018 11:31 AM

ML512 wrote:

Considering the numbers of 250 and 300 2 strokes sold currently, how many you'd produce and what the demand would be...

I'm going to say your targeted market would be under 1000 buyers per year, and if that market wants the product would depend on price. For a top quality bike on a product line producing so few bikes and just that model...I'm guessing your retail would be well over $10,000 per bike. If you could produce it cheaper...China route for everything...so many variables.

I think that 1000 is extremely generous Mike. I'd guess 200. And no way you could sell them at 10k if they anything remotely reasonable. Maybe 15k at best.

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2/23/2018 11:32 AM

doghouse wrote:

If you could even get the drawings, which I doubt, this would cost an obscene amount of money for extremely obsolete technology

That's true in the sense of the cost. With regards to the technology, if the product is in demand, that does not matter. I am sure someone has looked into that and thought it's not viable.

However, there is a market for crated V8s, so this would be along the same logic.

I agree on the 10k for 1,000 bikes as a target market.

I got thinking about this while watching someone riding a KX500 like a modern bike and a young girl being absolutely brilliant on a Honda 500.

I would be the first in line for one of these bikes.

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2/23/2018 11:32 AM
Edited Date/Time: 2/23/2018 11:33 AM

doghouse wrote:

I think that 1000 is extremely generous Mike. I'd guess 200. And no way you could sell them at 10k if they anything remotely reasonable. Maybe 15k at best.

I like to be generous...but you're right...especially if it's a targeted market like US only.

My number was more based off a world-wide interest level and not including a drop-off for how many would actually pull the trigger based on price. The higher the price, the smaller the market.

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If you liked my bike tests from Vital, head to my YouTube channel to see my latest tests and more: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCcgAl-F63686Bfnt44vmrfQ
Instagram: @Michael_Lindsay512

2/23/2018 11:34 AM

ML512 wrote:

Considering the numbers of 250 and 300 2 strokes sold currently, how many you'd produce and what the demand would be...

I'm going to say your targeted market would be under 1000 buyers per year, and if that market wants the product would depend on price. For a top quality bike on a product line producing so few bikes and just that model...I'm guessing your retail would be well over $10,000 per bike. If you could produce it cheaper...China route for everything...so many variables.

doghouse wrote:

I think that 1000 is extremely generous Mike. I'd guess 200. And no way you could sell them at 10k if they anything remotely reasonable. Maybe 15k at best.

ML512 wrote:

I like to be generous...but you're right...especially if it's a targeted market like US only.

My number was more based off a world-wide interest level and not including a drop-off for how many would actually pull the trigger based on price. The higher the price, the smaller the market.

Good debate. But market would have to be global. Huge demand for these in Europe (I am based in the UK and have a look at what a 1992 KX500 with starship hours sells for)

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2/23/2018 11:36 AM

doghouse wrote:

If you could even get the drawings, which I doubt, this would cost an obscene amount of money for extremely obsolete technology

stuckmojo wrote:

That's true in the sense of the cost. With regards to the technology, if the product is in demand, that does not matter. I am sure someone has looked into that and thought it's not viable.

However, there is a market for crated V8s, so this would be along the same logic.

I agree on the 10k for 1,000 bikes as a target market.

I got thinking about this while watching someone riding a KX500 like a modern bike and a young girl being absolutely brilliant on a Honda 500.

I would be the first in line for one of these bikes.

My number at 10k for a bike is fairly unreasonable unless you go fairly cheap with manufacturing. Like using odd-ball tire manufactures and suspension components. The amount of suspension purchased would be so small the pricing from say KYB, Showa, or WP would be a ton higher to you then one of the OEMs.

Here's a scary thought, some of the big OEMs don't even sell over 2,000 of their 450 Motocross bikes per year in the US. Suzuki's '17 was closer to the 1,000 mark.

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If you liked my bike tests from Vital, head to my YouTube channel to see my latest tests and more: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCcgAl-F63686Bfnt44vmrfQ
Instagram: @Michael_Lindsay512

2/23/2018 11:36 AM

ML512 wrote:

I like to be generous...but you're right...especially if it's a targeted market like US only.

My number was more based off a world-wide interest level and not including a drop-off for how many would actually pull the trigger based on price. The higher the price, the smaller the market.

And honestly, I am sort of one of them. But not for the same 30 year old CR500 that already exists, I have one, and you can buy them all day for a lot cheaper, why would you drop a shed of money on a new one? Fresher paint? It just doesn't make sense.

I'd like an all new big bore two stroke, and I'd pay a load of money for one, but nobody is gonna make that because only ten people will buy one.

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2/23/2018 11:39 AM

Ultimately I'd be very surprised if you could produce a 500 at the qualifty of one of the big six OEMs, market it, then sell it for under $15,000...at that point, the pool of buyers becomes very small. The cost per country would probably clime too if you're not doing a mass ship, say only sending five units here, four there, etc.

My final statement as I have to run...for that money I'll take the Alta instead with coin leftover, as I've hated each AF 500 I've ridden.

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If you liked my bike tests from Vital, head to my YouTube channel to see my latest tests and more: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCcgAl-F63686Bfnt44vmrfQ
Instagram: @Michael_Lindsay512

2/23/2018 11:40 AM

doghouse wrote:

I think that 1000 is extremely generous Mike. I'd guess 200. And no way you could sell them at 10k if they anything remotely reasonable. Maybe 15k at best.

ML512 wrote:

I like to be generous...but you're right...especially if it's a targeted market like US only.

My number was more based off a world-wide interest level and not including a drop-off for how many would actually pull the trigger based on price. The higher the price, the smaller the market.

doghouse wrote:

And honestly, I am sort of one of them. But not for the same 30 year old CR500 that already exists, I have one, and you can buy them all day for a lot cheaper, why would you drop a shed of money on a new one? Fresher paint? It just doesn't make sense.

I'd like an all new big bore two stroke, and I'd pay a load of money for one, but nobody is gonna make that because only ten people will buy one.

That's one of the questions I have. Are there really few people to buy a big bore 2T? There's also the aftermarket for the existing KX or CR that are running out of spares (If what one reads on the internet has to be believed).

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2/23/2018 11:46 AM

stuckmojo wrote:

That's one of the questions I have. Are there really few people to buy a big bore 2T? There's also the aftermarket for the existing KX or CR that are running out of spares (If what one reads on the internet has to be believed).

I think so, as does ML, who is pretty tuned in.

I guess I would put the question to you why would you pay that much money for a new bike when there are tons of used ones available? What are you gaining?

I've had no problem with parts personally, so not a factor in my decision making on this. There's a CR500 for sale in the classified section as we speak from the guy I bought mine from, a 2001 in great shape, for 4500 bucks or so.

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2/23/2018 11:49 AM

If there was a legit demand for them KTM would probably be building one. Which would be amazing.

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2/23/2018 11:51 AM

doghouse wrote:

And honestly, I am sort of one of them. But not for the same 30 year old CR500 that already exists, I have one, and you can buy them all day for a lot cheaper, why would you drop a shed of money on a new one? Fresher paint? It just doesn't make sense.

I'd like an all new big bore two stroke, and I'd pay a load of money for one, but nobody is gonna make that because only ten people will buy one.

stuckmojo wrote:

That's one of the questions I have. Are there really few people to buy a big bore 2T? There's also the aftermarket for the existing KX or CR that are running out of spares (If what one reads on the internet has to be believed).

doghouse wrote:

I think so, as does ML, who is pretty tuned in.

I guess I would put the question to you why would you pay that much money for a new bike when there are tons of used ones available? What are you gaining?

I've had no problem with parts personally, so not a factor in my decision making on this. There's a CR500 for sale in the classified section as we speak from the guy I bought mine from, a 2001 in great shape, for 4500 bucks or so.

yes, but by that logic there's no point in buying any new bike ever, is there? There are always used bikes with even a few hours on that are much cheaper than new.

In the US there's a bigger offer of used 500s. In Europe, they are rare and extremely expensive.

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2/23/2018 11:53 AM

doghouse wrote:

I think that 1000 is extremely generous Mike. I'd guess 200. And no way you could sell them at 10k if they anything remotely reasonable. Maybe 15k at best.

ML512 wrote:

I like to be generous...but you're right...especially if it's a targeted market like US only.

My number was more based off a world-wide interest level and not including a drop-off for how many would actually pull the trigger based on price. The higher the price, the smaller the market.

doghouse wrote:

And honestly, I am sort of one of them. But not for the same 30 year old CR500 that already exists, I have one, and you can buy them all day for a lot cheaper, why would you drop a shed of money on a new one? Fresher paint? It just doesn't make sense.

I'd like an all new big bore two stroke, and I'd pay a load of money for one, but nobody is gonna make that because only ten people will buy one.

I disagree. I would buy one as well. Thats 3 already in this thread. The market would be the same that buys a Factory Edition. Even with the industry holding flat or decreasing KTM/Husky comes out with a more expensive 4T and they sell. Just like the Alta will sell.

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2/23/2018 11:56 AM

You can get this 2018 685cc beast model for 10,995 Euro And save a bunch of money when buying replacement plastic for a 2001 Yamaha!



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2/23/2018 11:58 AM

AHRMA361 wrote:

You can get this 2018 685cc beast model for 10,995 Euro And save a bunch of money when buying replacement plastic for a 2001 Yamaha!



Good point. And they do a road legal version too.

A good honest 500 would still be preferable (and I know they do a 500 too).

Slight annoyance with these is that the Zabel engine they use has the kick start on the left. As if these aren't already tough to start

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2/23/2018 11:59 AM

ML512 wrote:

Ultimately I'd be very surprised if you could produce a 500 at the qualifty of one of the big six OEMs, market it, then sell it for under $15,000...at that point, the pool of buyers becomes very small. The cost per country would probably clime too if you're not doing a mass ship, say only sending five units here, four there, etc.

My final statement as I have to run...for that money I'll take the Alta instead with coin leftover, as I've hated each AF 500 I've ridden.

Most AF's are not great, but some of the later ones are not too shabby.

But this touches on what I'd want, a bike that had an OEMs full R&D effort behind it. You can buy a space age bike for under 9k right now, it's hard to imagine spending 15k on a dinosaur, even if it's a fun dinosaur.

I'd pay 20 k for truly new big two stroke. But I'm an extreme minority.

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2/23/2018 12:00 PM

Tooling is likely scrapped or rotted away in a yard somewhere. Either way its junk by now.

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Race Bike: 2018 KTM 350SXF

Other Bikes: 1985 CR80R, 1990 CR250R, 1998 PW80, Giant Stance 2.

Sold: 2016 YZ250F, 2012 CRF250R

2/23/2018 12:09 PM

Id bet that most of the tooling is destroyed. Only tools to make common parts are still around. Also in addition to the tooling you would need the presses and cnc machines. Also have to pay for any robotics for frame welding etc. also if they still arent using the same presses or robots then youll have to buy new ones which arent cheap by any means.

ALSO, most castings are outsourced by another company and unless that company still has the sand/foam dupes, you are SOL.

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2/23/2018 12:10 PM

stuckmojo wrote:

yes, but by that logic there's no point in buying any new bike ever, is there? There are always used bikes with even a few hours on that are much cheaper than new.

In the US there's a bigger offer of used 500s. In Europe, they are rare and extremely expensive.

Well, there is. You are buying a new bike and all that entails. A 2018 Honda CRF 450 is literally 27 years more advanced than a CR500. Same with cars. A 2018 F150 has almost no relation to a 1991 F150.

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2/23/2018 12:12 PM

ML512 wrote:

I like to be generous...but you're right...especially if it's a targeted market like US only.

My number was more based off a world-wide interest level and not including a drop-off for how many would actually pull the trigger based on price. The higher the price, the smaller the market.

doghouse wrote:

And honestly, I am sort of one of them. But not for the same 30 year old CR500 that already exists, I have one, and you can buy them all day for a lot cheaper, why would you drop a shed of money on a new one? Fresher paint? It just doesn't make sense.

I'd like an all new big bore two stroke, and I'd pay a load of money for one, but nobody is gonna make that because only ten people will buy one.

Markee wrote:

I disagree. I would buy one as well. Thats 3 already in this thread. The market would be the same that buys a Factory Edition. Even with the industry holding flat or decreasing KTM/Husky comes out with a more expensive 4T and they sell. Just like the Alta will sell.

That's less than 400 buyers a year buying the best available equipment...KTM FEs don't always sell within the year, there's usually leftovers...they're around 4-5k cheaper than the 500 we're conversing about. Those FE 450s can be raced in more classes, are the latest technology, have huge R&D behind it, easier to get parts for, they're cheaper to buy and have a wider appeal than the 500. Ultimately that case and comparison lowers the size of potential buyers for the 500.

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If you liked my bike tests from Vital, head to my YouTube channel to see my latest tests and more: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCcgAl-F63686Bfnt44vmrfQ
Instagram: @Michael_Lindsay512

2/23/2018 12:12 PM

stuckmojo wrote:

This

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uWi3bS66cU&lc=z22hezagsxeghzt21acdp43a0l0ngcmovnq3ilwelmdw03c010c.1519412585400544&feature=em-comments


got me thinking.


What would have happened to the tooling, production line and drawings for the CR500 or KX500 engines? Neither Honda nor Kawasaki are interested in producing these and given there are no more new spares it looks like the lines are defunct.

What if someone would buy the tooling/casing and started producing the engines on their own? The number one debate topic when it comes to dirt bikes is 2T/4T and many seem to miss the big engines. I am one of them. I would queue up to buy a new 500 - even with none of the modern things.

I'll be collecting some data and run some numbers to see how/if this could be done. I know a company who is about to release a KTM 500 engine but the cost is astronomical (think 5 figures for the drop in kit alone)

https://www.facebook.com/brcracingcanada/

thoughts?

Dream on

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2/23/2018 12:12 PM

BobbyM wrote:

Dream on

The man has spoken.

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If you liked my bike tests from Vital, head to my YouTube channel to see my latest tests and more: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCcgAl-F63686Bfnt44vmrfQ
Instagram: @Michael_Lindsay512

2/23/2018 12:13 PM

Markee wrote:

I disagree. I would buy one as well. Thats 3 already in this thread. The market would be the same that buys a Factory Edition. Even with the industry holding flat or decreasing KTM/Husky comes out with a more expensive 4T and they sell. Just like the Alta will sell.

You'd buy a 20k bike? Because I specifically said I wouldn't buy a new old 500, only a completely new factory tested and designed one that had as much development as the current 450s. I'd want modern EFI, chassis, suspension, most likely direct injection and variable intake and exhaust porting, etc...

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2/23/2018 12:14 PM

doghouse wrote:

I think so, as does ML, who is pretty tuned in.

I guess I would put the question to you why would you pay that much money for a new bike when there are tons of used ones available? What are you gaining?

I've had no problem with parts personally, so not a factor in my decision making on this. There's a CR500 for sale in the classified section as we speak from the guy I bought mine from, a 2001 in great shape, for 4500 bucks or so.

stuckmojo wrote:

yes, but by that logic there's no point in buying any new bike ever, is there? There are always used bikes with even a few hours on that are much cheaper than new.

In the US there's a bigger offer of used 500s. In Europe, they are rare and extremely expensive.

doghouse wrote:

Well, there is. You are buying a new bike and all that entails. A 2018 Honda CRF 450 is literally 27 years more advanced than a CR500. Same with cars. A 2018 F150 has almost no relation to a 1991 F150.

I agree. And by every possible measure metric the 2018 CRF will be the better bike. But the majority of riders won't go anywhere near using the full potential of the bike, so the emotional factor is equally important, or at least that's what I am trying to argue, as it is for me.

How many Porsche 911 owners would immediately buy a new 993 today instead of the newest 911 if they could? I would say a huge amount.

the Ford F150 is an appliance (except for the hot versions - no offense )

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2/23/2018 12:16 PM

stuckmojo wrote:

This

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uWi3bS66cU&lc=z22hezagsxeghzt21acdp43a0l0ngcmovnq3ilwelmdw03c010c.1519412585400544&feature=em-comments


got me thinking.


What would have happened to the tooling, production line and drawings for the CR500 or KX500 engines? Neither Honda nor Kawasaki are interested in producing these and given there are no more new spares it looks like the lines are defunct.

What if someone would buy the tooling/casing and started producing the engines on their own? The number one debate topic when it comes to dirt bikes is 2T/4T and many seem to miss the big engines. I am one of them. I would queue up to buy a new 500 - even with none of the modern things.

I'll be collecting some data and run some numbers to see how/if this could be done. I know a company who is about to release a KTM 500 engine but the cost is astronomical (think 5 figures for the drop in kit alone)

https://www.facebook.com/brcracingcanada/

thoughts?

BobbyM wrote:

Dream on

Well, yeah, that's the whole point of the topic.

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2/23/2018 12:17 PM

stuckmojo wrote:

I agree. And by every possible measure metric the 2018 CRF will be the better bike. But the majority of riders won't go anywhere near using the full potential of the bike, so the emotional factor is equally important, or at least that's what I am trying to argue, as it is for me.

How many Porsche 911 owners would immediately buy a new 993 today instead of the newest 911 if they could? I would say a huge amount.

the Ford F150 is an appliance (except for the hot versions - no offense )

Yeah, I agree on that point, I'm the same. I'd love one for fun reasons, not anything rational.

I just think the pool of buyers is microscopic unfortunately. It's a fun convo though.

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2/23/2018 12:45 PM

I don’t think making the whole bike is the answer but make hard to get cases, sub frames, etc would make you a lot of money.. trust me people buy a lot of half ass used parts for a lot of money..

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