Will AP23 burn out like CW2 did?

agn5009
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8/20/2018 6:37am
jeffro503 wrote:
Aaron will be an animal on a 450 , mark my words. Give him some time to adjust , and he'll be toward's the top of...
Aaron will be an animal on a 450 , mark my words. Give him some time to adjust , and he'll be toward's the top of the heap , especially outdoors.

In fact....don't we have Aaron , Osbourne , Jmart and Savatgy all moving up next year? On top of already getting Justin Hill in there. With who we have getting out and coming up through the 250's right now.....the American 450 is going to be stacked. Future is looking pretty bright indeed.
I'm not so sure about Aaron yet. I hope I'm wrong but for some reason I don't buy into all the hype that he's going to be amazing on a 450. I have no doubt he will be top 10 but I don't think he will be a consistent podium threat.
agn5009
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8/20/2018 6:39am
You can't deny that as double 250 champion going into your rookie 450 year on a factory bike, the last distraction you want is a newborn...
You can't deny that as double 250 champion going into your rookie 450 year on a factory bike, the last distraction you want is a newborn baby. How is that going to affect his preparation and training when he can't get a solid nights rest?

I get that people have different feelings and opinions on the subject and religion may come into it but at 22 years old and the peak of his career I think he should have waited. He's got plenty of years ahead of him for that.
shredder22 wrote:
Or sometimes having a child can help you settle down and want to perform even better now that there's a family depending on him.
BobPA wrote:
It also makes people think about life more. Causing them to no longer throw caution to the wind. I know it made a few of my...
It also makes people think about life more. Causing them to no longer throw caution to the wind. I know it made a few of my friends slow down...
It certainly made me slow down and not do the stupid things I used to do on a dirt bike.
8/20/2018 7:23am
Assuming he gels with the 450, he'll be fine. Talent aside, his laid back attitude is a huge asset to him. He appears to have a down to earth, "take each obstacle as it comes" outlook, and doesn't overthink things, or freak himself out over high expectations. Considering the pressure and scrutiny in this sport, these traits will serve him well, if he can hold onto them.
agn5009
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8/20/2018 7:48am Edited Date/Time 8/20/2018 7:49am
Assuming he gels with the 450, he'll be fine. Talent aside, his laid back attitude is a huge asset to him. He appears to have a...
Assuming he gels with the 450, he'll be fine. Talent aside, his laid back attitude is a huge asset to him. He appears to have a down to earth, "take each obstacle as it comes" outlook, and doesn't overthink things, or freak himself out over high expectations. Considering the pressure and scrutiny in this sport, these traits will serve him well, if he can hold onto them.
So tell me, what great 450 championship winner had the laid back attitude while racing? Dungey? Villopoto? Carmichael? Tomac? Cairoli? Everts?

You may be able to make an argument for Stewart. I guess he was kind of laid back. But that's probably about it.

So why do you think the laid back personality will be an asset?

The Shop

Flip109
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8/20/2018 8:02am
Assuming he gels with the 450, he'll be fine. Talent aside, his laid back attitude is a huge asset to him. He appears to have a...
Assuming he gels with the 450, he'll be fine. Talent aside, his laid back attitude is a huge asset to him. He appears to have a down to earth, "take each obstacle as it comes" outlook, and doesn't overthink things, or freak himself out over high expectations. Considering the pressure and scrutiny in this sport, these traits will serve him well, if he can hold onto them.
agn5009 wrote:
So tell me, what great 450 championship winner had the laid back attitude while racing? Dungey? Villopoto? Carmichael? Tomac? Cairoli? Everts? You may be able to...
So tell me, what great 450 championship winner had the laid back attitude while racing? Dungey? Villopoto? Carmichael? Tomac? Cairoli? Everts?

You may be able to make an argument for Stewart. I guess he was kind of laid back. But that's probably about it.

So why do you think the laid back personality will be an asset?
Well it helps him not crack under pressure or succumb to it as easily I guess? Everyone is different, has different personality’s. Just because a lot of great champions didn’t seem so laid back (that you know of) doesn’t mean it won’t serve him well. Really looking foreword to him moving up. With all the others moving up, and a healthy Anderson and Roczen in the mix, and also Webb under Rogers wing on a good bike. It’s going to be a pretty deep field I believe.
8/20/2018 8:12am
Assuming he gels with the 450, he'll be fine. Talent aside, his laid back attitude is a huge asset to him. He appears to have a...
Assuming he gels with the 450, he'll be fine. Talent aside, his laid back attitude is a huge asset to him. He appears to have a down to earth, "take each obstacle as it comes" outlook, and doesn't overthink things, or freak himself out over high expectations. Considering the pressure and scrutiny in this sport, these traits will serve him well, if he can hold onto them.
agn5009 wrote:
So tell me, what great 450 championship winner had the laid back attitude while racing? Dungey? Villopoto? Carmichael? Tomac? Cairoli? Everts? You may be able to...
So tell me, what great 450 championship winner had the laid back attitude while racing? Dungey? Villopoto? Carmichael? Tomac? Cairoli? Everts?

You may be able to make an argument for Stewart. I guess he was kind of laid back. But that's probably about it.

So why do you think the laid back personality will be an asset?
Simply bc it has been an asset for him so far. He went from a SX championship to a MX championship without skipping a beat or losing his cool. He had some lackluster moments, but always bounced right back as if nothing had happened. Compare that with guys like Forkner who seem to "unravel."

We can only judge a situation by the evidence we've directly seen, not by "what ifs" or comparing one guy to a completely different guy. AP23 is not the same person/rider as Dungey or Webb or RC. We've seen him dominate by being his own laid back self, and I expect we can continue to see that if all goes well.
agn5009
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8/20/2018 8:51am
Assuming he gels with the 450, he'll be fine. Talent aside, his laid back attitude is a huge asset to him. He appears to have a...
Assuming he gels with the 450, he'll be fine. Talent aside, his laid back attitude is a huge asset to him. He appears to have a down to earth, "take each obstacle as it comes" outlook, and doesn't overthink things, or freak himself out over high expectations. Considering the pressure and scrutiny in this sport, these traits will serve him well, if he can hold onto them.
agn5009 wrote:
So tell me, what great 450 championship winner had the laid back attitude while racing? Dungey? Villopoto? Carmichael? Tomac? Cairoli? Everts? You may be able to...
So tell me, what great 450 championship winner had the laid back attitude while racing? Dungey? Villopoto? Carmichael? Tomac? Cairoli? Everts?

You may be able to make an argument for Stewart. I guess he was kind of laid back. But that's probably about it.

So why do you think the laid back personality will be an asset?
Simply bc it has been an asset for him so far. He went from a SX championship to a MX championship without skipping a beat or...
Simply bc it has been an asset for him so far. He went from a SX championship to a MX championship without skipping a beat or losing his cool. He had some lackluster moments, but always bounced right back as if nothing had happened. Compare that with guys like Forkner who seem to "unravel."

We can only judge a situation by the evidence we've directly seen, not by "what ifs" or comparing one guy to a completely different guy. AP23 is not the same person/rider as Dungey or Webb or RC. We've seen him dominate by being his own laid back self, and I expect we can continue to see that if all goes well.
I'm not taking anything away from Aaron. So don't take this the wrong way. He had an amazing year and he's one of the best currently. But his biggest asset was Martin, Osborne and Ferrandis going out with injuries. I don't buy into the hype that he's gonna be a great 450 rider. When he's on he is awesome. But when he's off he isn't so awesome. The greats win when they're on and podium when they're off. I sincerely hope I'm wrong because I really like Aaron but I don't ever see him winning a 450 championship. I can see him getting 3-5 career overalls and being a 4th-10th place guy. Again, I hope I'm wrong.
8/20/2018 9:11am
agn5009 wrote:
So tell me, what great 450 championship winner had the laid back attitude while racing? Dungey? Villopoto? Carmichael? Tomac? Cairoli? Everts? You may be able to...
So tell me, what great 450 championship winner had the laid back attitude while racing? Dungey? Villopoto? Carmichael? Tomac? Cairoli? Everts?

You may be able to make an argument for Stewart. I guess he was kind of laid back. But that's probably about it.

So why do you think the laid back personality will be an asset?
Simply bc it has been an asset for him so far. He went from a SX championship to a MX championship without skipping a beat or...
Simply bc it has been an asset for him so far. He went from a SX championship to a MX championship without skipping a beat or losing his cool. He had some lackluster moments, but always bounced right back as if nothing had happened. Compare that with guys like Forkner who seem to "unravel."

We can only judge a situation by the evidence we've directly seen, not by "what ifs" or comparing one guy to a completely different guy. AP23 is not the same person/rider as Dungey or Webb or RC. We've seen him dominate by being his own laid back self, and I expect we can continue to see that if all goes well.
agn5009 wrote:
I'm not taking anything away from Aaron. So don't take this the wrong way. He had an amazing year and he's one of the best currently...
I'm not taking anything away from Aaron. So don't take this the wrong way. He had an amazing year and he's one of the best currently. But his biggest asset was Martin, Osborne and Ferrandis going out with injuries. I don't buy into the hype that he's gonna be a great 450 rider. When he's on he is awesome. But when he's off he isn't so awesome. The greats win when they're on and podium when they're off. I sincerely hope I'm wrong because I really like Aaron but I don't ever see him winning a 450 championship. I can see him getting 3-5 career overalls and being a 4th-10th place guy. Again, I hope I'm wrong.
You have a good point about that, with those guys out a lot of the pressure was "off" for him in the first place. The biggest unknown is how AP23 will perform on a 450 against guys like Tomac, Musquin, Roczen, etc. It might be hard for him to keep his cool in such a high pressure, high stakes arena. I hope for his sake he can bc I think staying cool works well for him.
TXDirt
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8/20/2018 9:14am
agn5009 wrote:
I'm not taking anything away from Aaron. So don't take this the wrong way. He had an amazing year and he's one of the best currently...
I'm not taking anything away from Aaron. So don't take this the wrong way. He had an amazing year and he's one of the best currently. But his biggest asset was Martin, Osborne and Ferrandis going out with injuries. I don't buy into the hype that he's gonna be a great 450 rider. When he's on he is awesome. But when he's off he isn't so awesome. The greats win when they're on and podium when they're off. I sincerely hope I'm wrong because I really like Aaron but I don't ever see him winning a 450 championship. I can see him getting 3-5 career overalls and being a 4th-10th place guy. Again, I hope I'm wrong.
If wikipedia is correct, here are the last 20 years of 450 MX Champions.

Doug Henry (Yamaha)
Greg Albertyn (Suzuki)
Ricky Carmichael (Kawasaki)
Ricky Carmichael (Kawasaki)
Ricky Carmichael (Honda)
Ricky Carmichael (Honda)
Ricky Carmichael (Honda)
Ricky Carmichael (Suzuki)
Ricky Carmichael (Suzuki)
Grant Langston (Yamaha)
James Stewart Jr. (Kawasaki)
Chad Reed (Suzuki)
Ryan Dungey (Suzuki)
Ryan Villopoto (Kawasaki)
Ryan Dungey (KTM)
Ryan Villopoto (Kawasaki)
Ken Roczen (KTM)
Ryan Dungey (KTM)
Ken Roczen (Suzuki)
Eli Tomac (Kawasaki)

Think of all the great riders over the last 20 years not on this list. To say that AP will never win a 450 championship may be true, but he still has a chance to be a one of the top dogs in the sport for many years to come.
agn5009
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8/20/2018 9:25am Edited Date/Time 8/20/2018 9:35am
agn5009 wrote:
I'm not taking anything away from Aaron. So don't take this the wrong way. He had an amazing year and he's one of the best currently...
I'm not taking anything away from Aaron. So don't take this the wrong way. He had an amazing year and he's one of the best currently. But his biggest asset was Martin, Osborne and Ferrandis going out with injuries. I don't buy into the hype that he's gonna be a great 450 rider. When he's on he is awesome. But when he's off he isn't so awesome. The greats win when they're on and podium when they're off. I sincerely hope I'm wrong because I really like Aaron but I don't ever see him winning a 450 championship. I can see him getting 3-5 career overalls and being a 4th-10th place guy. Again, I hope I'm wrong.
TXDirt wrote:
If wikipedia is correct, here are the last 20 years of 450 MX Champions. Doug Henry (Yamaha) Greg Albertyn (Suzuki) Ricky Carmichael (Kawasaki) Ricky Carmichael (Kawasaki) Ricky Carmichael...
If wikipedia is correct, here are the last 20 years of 450 MX Champions.

Doug Henry (Yamaha)
Greg Albertyn (Suzuki)
Ricky Carmichael (Kawasaki)
Ricky Carmichael (Kawasaki)
Ricky Carmichael (Honda)
Ricky Carmichael (Honda)
Ricky Carmichael (Honda)
Ricky Carmichael (Suzuki)
Ricky Carmichael (Suzuki)
Grant Langston (Yamaha)
James Stewart Jr. (Kawasaki)
Chad Reed (Suzuki)
Ryan Dungey (Suzuki)
Ryan Villopoto (Kawasaki)
Ryan Dungey (KTM)
Ryan Villopoto (Kawasaki)
Ken Roczen (KTM)
Ryan Dungey (KTM)
Ken Roczen (Suzuki)
Eli Tomac (Kawasaki)

Think of all the great riders over the last 20 years not on this list. To say that AP will never win a 450 championship may be true, but he still has a chance to be a one of the top dogs in the sport for many years to come.
My idea of "great" is winning 450 titles. Everyone has different opinions on that. But me personally, you better win a big boy title to be considered great.

Windham is a good example of this. He was amazing. Great personality, great rider, great person. But he never won a big boy title. He's not an all time great racer.

I certainly believe Aaron will be a top dog. He will most likely be a top 10 rider, which would be a top dog. He will most likely get lots of top 5s, some podiums and a handful of wins. A lot of people here think he's gonna be the next big thing though. I just don't see it. I see him being similar to what Barcia is this year. An amazing rider who can maybe sneak out a win but won't ever win a 450 title realistically. That's all. I don't want to be argumentative because I really like Aaron. I want nothing more than to see him be the top dog and win some 450 titles. I really hope he proves me wrong.
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Mx286
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8/20/2018 4:02pm
I’m assuming a lot people haven’t seen him ride a 450. He rides the 450 better, he’s going to do fine.
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mark_swart
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8/20/2018 4:15pm
Whether Webb says it or not, I think he (and most of us) expected him to go in and immediately contend for race wins and championships. I just don't get that vibe from Plessinger. I think he will do like he did on 250s, go in, learn for a few seasons, and make his way up there. He will get to the top in a few years through attrition from our current elite riders, and he will have some good breakthrough rides in the meantime.

I really enjoy having his personality in our sport, I hope he doesn't change too much when he's on the 450s.
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deluxeman
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8/20/2018 4:22pm
Osborne, and Pless will do well on 450's, Savatgy not so sure he won't be a waste of a paycheck. He hasn't done anything on a 250 this season and has shown he is a bit frail when the heat is on. Yeah he's had some bad luck, but he just hasn't looked very good.

I am glad Plessinger won, he seems like a pretty easy going guy. Hope he goes well next season. It will be fun to see which rookie adapts to the bike bikes faster.
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8/20/2018 4:27pm
GregDVT wrote:
If you go to the races you can see Cooper still hangs out with the Star racing team a lot. I think a Move to KTM...
If you go to the races you can see Cooper still hangs out with the Star racing team a lot. I think a Move to KTM next year could be the change he needs, he may be too comfortable.

Aaron I think will move up and be a top 5 guy immediately.
Aaron strikes me as a bit of a Dean Wilson, maybe better.
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SteezGeez
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8/20/2018 6:08pm
GregDVT wrote:
If you go to the races you can see Cooper still hangs out with the Star racing team a lot. I think a Move to KTM...
If you go to the races you can see Cooper still hangs out with the Star racing team a lot. I think a Move to KTM next year could be the change he needs, he may be too comfortable.

Aaron I think will move up and be a top 5 guy immediately.
ShipLap wrote:
Aaron strikes me as a bit of a Dean Wilson, maybe better.
Thats an interesting way to put it. 2019 will be a good season if everyone stays healthy in the off season.
Racer111
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8/20/2018 8:07pm
AP will be fine. He loves racing dirtbikes.

If anyone is burnt out, it’s Jason Anderson. He’s commented on it multiple times the last 2 years.
agn5009
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8/20/2018 9:24pm
Racer111 wrote:
AP will be fine. He loves racing dirtbikes.

If anyone is burnt out, it’s Jason Anderson. He’s commented on it multiple times the last 2 years.
I don't think Anderson is burnt out. I saw something recently where he said he has to do other things and live a life away from Moto to keep from burning out. Which is totally understandable.
hamncheeze
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8/20/2018 9:55pm Edited Date/Time 8/20/2018 9:57pm
Regarding Webb, let's not forget that he also did MXdN in 2015, so he spent two off-seasons hammering down before he started 2017. Plus he had a bit of an injury in both 2016 and 2017 that affected his December leading into 2017 and 2018. It's been a rough go, but I still believe Coop has "it" and he will get back on his path in 2019. Look at Tomac in 2014 on the 450, he was out 3x with injuries, then he had his massive getoff in 2015. Roczen had a great rookie year in 2014 but then got hurt twice in 2015. And RV, he took some hits in 2009 and 2010 before he settled down on the 450. It's a big transition, and apart from Dungey it seems to get most guys.

Having said that, I think Plessinger could be pretty consistent from the get-go on the big bike. He's really upped his consistency this year, plus he doesn't seem to carry too much stress about racing. He has been very durable in terms of injuries, I think he had one off-season shoulder injury but that's all I can think of since he turned pro. I could see him top-5 in both SX and MX points if he stays healthy and we have the usual injury rates among everyone else.
jeffro503
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8/20/2018 10:20pm
Racer111 wrote:
AP will be fine. He loves racing dirtbikes.

If anyone is burnt out, it’s Jason Anderson. He’s commented on it multiple times the last 2 years.
What? I call bullshit on that. Please show me where you saw " I'm burned out ". A link would be great. You said " Multiple times " as well......so finding just one example would be great.


Jason ain't burned out. In fact , I bet that dude has a fire under his ass and is ready to race , any where , any time.
hamncheeze
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8/20/2018 10:37pm
jeffro503 wrote:
What? I call bullshit on that. Please show me where you saw " I'm burned out ". A link would be great. You said " Multiple...
What? I call bullshit on that. Please show me where you saw " I'm burned out ". A link would be great. You said " Multiple times " as well......so finding just one example would be great.


Jason ain't burned out. In fact , I bet that dude has a fire under his ass and is ready to race , any where , any time.
Agreed. Look at JA in his first moto back. Not even 10 minutes in and the the old BB4 rivalry was re-ignited.

I think Anderson is just different in that he puts himself out there on social media to show his off-track life. And he considers doing stuff away from the moto scene very important for his mental state. Even Bobby Hewitt has said in several different interviews that he has to give Jason room to have fun. We know from that awkward press conference at Washougal that Tomac did something on his off-weekend, but he does not put himself out there at all. It's a shame that the sport has become this vicious little entity where every rider is judged with every single thing they do on the bike and off the bike. Put up a video of you wakeboarding, then have a bad moto and people are questioning your dedication and resolve. That kind of pressure from the industry and fans forces the top guys to be sheltered. Weege has talked a lot about this in the last couple of months. He says that even a free-spirit like AP will eventually lose some of that personality when he starts getting the 450 pressure to perform.
MohMoto14
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8/21/2018 3:24am
Doug Henry was always smiling, MC was laid back most of the time.

You said 450 but I'm including Pastrana bc he was happy on even his worst days and if it hadn't been for injuries i think he would have won a few championships.
MohMoto14
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8/21/2018 3:33am
It's possible he will come out stale the first few races from the champs hangover. He's a smart kid and I don't see him coming out and getting hurt going for the win. By SX seasons end i think he'll have things dialed and compete for top 5's or bottom of the podium. In a few years i wouldn't be surprised if he wins some championships.

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