What it Takes for Tomac to Clinch the title in Ironman Moto 1

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8/25/2017 10:47 PM
Edited Date/Time: 8/25/2017 11:25 PM

In a nutshell Tomac needs to take 1st or 2nd place (with a Musquin or Bagget win) to clinch the title in Moto 1. 3rd won't do it with a Musquin or Baggett win.

The points going into the final round:
439 Tomac
411 Baggett (-28)
409 Musquin (-30)

Eli must finish no more than 3 points behind Baggett and 4 points behind Musquin to clinch the title in moto 1.
A second place behind a Baggett win or a second place behind a Musquin win will clinch the title a moto early.
A 3rd place will not clinch the title in several scenarios.

This is the math:

If Baggett wins with Eli in 2nd, Eli will have 25 more points than Baggett. If Baggett then wins the 2nd moto and Eli has a mechanical or scores 0 points in moto 2, Tomac and Baggett would be tied in points with the tie being broken in Tomac's favor by his 4 overall wins to Baggett's 3 (including Budd's Creek). Eli becomes the 2017 MX champion.

If Baggett wins with Tomac in 3rd, and Musquin in 2nd, Tomac will enter moto 2 with a 23 point lead over Baggett which is not enough to clinch the title. Tomac would need to score 2 additional points in moto 2 to beat Baggett and win the title.
A finish in this order eliminates Musquin who would be down 32 points going into moto 2.

If Musquin wins moto 1, and Tomac takes 3rd, Tomac will go into moto 2 25 points ahead of Musquin. Since they both have 4 overalls, a Musquin win in moto 2 with Eli scoring 0 points would give Musquin the championship with the tie broken in Musquin's favor with 5 overall victories to Tomac's 4. A second place finish or better for Tomac in Moto 1 to a Musquin win clinches the championship for Tomac. A third place finish leaves the door open.

So with a Musquin or Baggett win in Moto 1, Tomac must take 2nd to clinch the title a moto early.

If Herlings wins and shifts everyone back a place, Tomac needs to lose no more than 3 points to Baggett and no more than 4 points to Musquin to clinch the title in moto 1.

Looking forward to the race tomorrow!



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8/25/2017 10:52 PM

God please wrap it up in the first moto so we have a better chance of a Tomac vs JH showdown in moto 2.

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Are you smart enough to buy a bike that costs less, weighs less, makes more horsepower per cubic centimeter, can be rebuilt for recycled aluminum can money and is giggle inducing? It is hard to believe that the American riding public flunks this test en masse. How stupid are you?

8/25/2017 11:07 PM

FlaNard wrote:

God please wrap it up in the first moto so we have a better chance of a Tomac vs JH showdown in moto 2.

Amen!

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And there goes Jeffro. One of God's own prototypes. A super high-powered mutant of some kind never even considered for mass production. Too weird to live, and too rare to die.

Pimpin' Ho's , Rollin' fatty's......drinkin' beers , beers , beers!! ~ Ja

8/25/2017 11:23 PM

FlaNard wrote:

God please wrap it up in the first moto so we have a better chance of a Tomac vs JH showdown in moto 2.

Imagine tomac goes dnf in moto 1. THEN we see a real battle in moto 2 haha.

@ op budds creek was already last week, guess you know that

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8/25/2017 11:56 PM

FlaNard wrote:

God please wrap it up in the first moto so we have a better chance of a Tomac vs JH showdown in moto 2.

jeffro503 wrote:

Amen!

Yep ill 3rd that one!

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8/26/2017 12:26 AM

Radical wrote:
In a nutshell Tomac needs to take 1st or 2nd place (with a Musquin or Bagget win) to clinch the title in Moto 1. 3rd won't do it with a Musquin or Baggett win.


It would be a whole lot easier to do that without Herlings here. Makes you think.....
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8/26/2017 1:25 AM

dirtworldmx wrote: Radical wrote:
In a nutshell Tomac needs to take 1st or 2nd place (with a Musquin or Bagget win) to clinch the title in Moto 1. 3rd won't do it with a Musquin or Baggett win.


It would be a whole lot easier to do that without Herlings here. Makes you think.....

It's actually better for Tomac if Herlings wins. Then neither Baggett, nor Musquin can pick up 3 points on Eli.

If Herlings wins, and Baggett takes 2nd, Tomac needs 3rd to clinch the title. If Tomac takes 4th, Baggett will be down 24 points going into moto 2. In this case Tomac will need to score 1 point in moto 2 to overcome a 2nd moto Baggett win (Tied in points, Tomac has more wins). Musquin would be eliminated. He needs to gain 5 points in Moto 1 to keep his chances alive.
If Herlings wins moto 2, Tomac wins period, even with a DNF in moto 2.

If Herlings wins moto 1, and Musquin takes 2nd, Tomac can take 4th in moto 1 and he's the champ. Musquin will go into the second moto 26 points behind. If Baggett takes 3rd in this case, he'll be tied with Musquin and 26 points behind Tomac. Musquin and Baggett will fight for second spot in the championship in moto 2, winner take all.

Damn I can't wait for the race tomorrow!

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8/26/2017 1:45 AM

Start dependent.

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8/26/2017 2:36 AM

Is herlings here to make life hard for tomac?

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8/26/2017 3:06 AM

byronrotax wrote:

Is herlings here to make life hard for tomac?

No... The only person who can lose the championship for him, is himself...unless, of course he has a mechanical which is out of his control.

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"Nothing happens until something moves"

8/26/2017 3:25 AM

byronrotax wrote:

Is herlings here to make life hard for tomac?

tempura wrote:

No... The only person who can lose the championship for him, is himself...unless, of course he has a mechanical which is out of his control.

But you have to admit having another rider in the top 5 makes it harder for Tomac. Hell ok surprised they didn't have 222 riding iron man too.

Can we get JG33 back to take these guys out?

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8/26/2017 3:26 AM

FlaNard wrote:

God please wrap it up in the first moto so we have a better chance of a Tomac vs JH showdown in moto 2.

jeffro503 wrote:

Amen!

Helder wrote:

Yep ill 3rd that one!

4th

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8/26/2017 3:27 AM

Let's not forget the pressure on Bagget and Musquin though they HAVE to win.

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8/26/2017 3:47 AM

Rowlands wrote:

Let's not forget the pressure on Bagget and Musquin though they HAVE to win.

Exactly. Eli just has to go out there and ride within his limits and not take any risks. The other two have more pressure to make something happen.
Jeffery shouldn't be the biggest concern for Eli.. Like I said previously, he needs to just finish the races and not get drawn into and difficult situations, it's up to himself.

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"Nothing happens until something moves"

8/26/2017 4:03 AM

nascarnate326 wrote:

But you have to admit having another rider in the top 5 makes it harder for Tomac. Hell ok surprised they didn't have 222 riding iron man too.

Can we get JG33 back to take these guys out?

Yeah, it doesn't help. Musquin needs to win and I have him balls out winning the first moto with Herlings close behind. Tomac back in 3rd or 4th. Then it would come down to the last moto and maybe some shenanigans. Gonna be good!

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8/26/2017 4:12 AM

While Tomac should seal this up with relative ease, certainly anything can happen. I was definitely not expecting there to even be a possibility after Baggett, Anderson and Musquin got injuried.

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8/26/2017 4:15 AM

Should the subject of this thread/post read Ironman rather that Budds Creek? Just an observation.

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.

8/26/2017 4:49 AM

YamahaJT1 wrote:

Should the subject of this thread/post read Ironman rather that Budds Creek? Just an observation.

Should someone have to ask?

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8/26/2017 6:31 AM

That's awesome! Two nats at Budd's Creek in two weeks!

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8/26/2017 6:51 AM

Only question is whomever wins the championship will they have an * next to their name?

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"Sorry Goose, but it's time to buzz the tower."

8/26/2017 7:03 AM

Photo

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8/26/2017 7:30 AM

Eli has enough pressure to deal with. Herlings is rhere, to run possible interference, if only on a points/position basis. He knows Musquin and Baggett still have a shot at it, and he also let the SX title slip away in May. If he isn't mentally prepared for this, and history has shown he can be a little shy of the mark, this could be interesting. He could also come out and drop the hammer, and go 1-1 by a huge gap. We will see.

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8/26/2017 8:43 AM

FlaNard wrote:

God please wrap it up in the first moto so we have a better chance of a Tomac vs JH showdown in moto 2.

matze wrote:

Imagine tomac goes dnf in moto 1. THEN we see a real battle in moto 2 haha.

@ op budds creek was already last week, guess you know that

Photo

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8/26/2017 9:24 AM

Looks like OP wrote this while intoxicated (10hrs ago) and still had Budds on his mind.

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8/26/2017 10:53 AM

YamahaJT1 wrote:

Should the subject of this thread/post read Ironman rather that Budds Creek? Just an observation.

Oops! Done

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8/26/2017 10:59 AM

Herlings bunches the field up Tomac style?.....

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8/26/2017 2:09 PM

FlaNard wrote:

God please wrap it up in the first moto so we have a better chance of a Tomac vs JH showdown in moto 2.

jeffro503 wrote:

Amen!

Helder wrote:

Yep ill 3rd that one!

Not what we wanted to see, but Tomac doesn't like to curl over like that. I expect him to come out swinging next week in FLorida!!

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I used to think I was indecisive, but now I'm not too sure.