Weege just Hit the Nail Squarely on the Head...

FreshTopEnd
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5/14/2020 11:49am
I believe there is definitely a "short term objective" in play Wink
Yeah, not surge crashing the medical system, including disposition of corpses.
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Fonzarelli
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5/14/2020 12:00pm
The number you quote are people who went on unemployment, they are collecting their state's unemployment money plus $600 a week more from The Federal Government. That is not much of a sacrifice, for many it's a raise.

There are definitely hardships for other people and I would like to see new laws and programs passed to eventually protect everyone, But those 35 million you mention are doing pretty darned good.
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EngIceDave
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5/14/2020 12:27pm Edited Date/Time 5/14/2020 12:28pm
Everyone running to the bars and restaurants within an hour of the WI Courts decision is kind of the reason why some people actually NEED to be told what they can and can't do.

I don't like it, but at least I know better to stay away from other people, wash my hands and wear a mask when in public, not going out to "pop bottles in da club"
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The Shop

Brtp4
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5/14/2020 12:41pm Edited Date/Time 5/14/2020 3:19pm
"I am sure of that number..."

Seems that number is wrong.

https://abc7chicago.com/coronavirus-wisconsin-cases-update-covid-19/610…

"Wisconsin health officials announced 10,902 positive COVID-19 cases and 421 COVID-19-related deaths. There are also 1,908 COVID-19 hospitalizations in the state."


https://www.tmj4.com/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-in-wisconsin-all-the-…

So, a question for you: you made a lengthy point that was built on information that was incorrect. Then, skipped over a chance to double check your information, then suggested that despite the fact that I made no claim to what the correct number was, suggested I had confirmation bias, then skipped over all that to double down and made another claim. No one made any claims about overreach, number of cases, etc. No one mentioned your conclusion, you were only asked you if you were sure about your facts, which we knew were incorrect. Now, you seem to be somewhat wound up and defensive.

For sure, any additional discussion of your point will probably just be escalating noise, and not any sort of exchange of info.

Is this what Jason Wiegant was talking about?

BP





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Brtp4
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5/14/2020 12:42pm
" It doesn't change the perspective, or my point."

And there it is.

BP
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peltier626
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5/14/2020 12:52pm Edited Date/Time 5/14/2020 1:43pm
The lack of trust on every level is the greatest tragedy. I think that's the center of the problem . We must not be naïve and observe from all perspectives and hopefully use the culmination of information to form our "opinion". There are a lot of angles from the top to the bottom within these troubling times, a lot of inconstancies and unknowns. Hopefully we can unite for the greater good, for the sake of humanity and our time spent on earth. Every once in a while I like to listen to Carl Sagan's "Pale blue dot" excerpt. I find it a reasonable view on humanity. Hopefully in time we come through this as a better civilization.
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RichieW13
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5/14/2020 12:55pm
You're a bit off there bud: [img]https://p.vitalmx.com/photos/forums/2020/05/14/427366/s1200_Screen_Shot_2020_05_14_at_12.42.50_PM.jpg[/img]
You're a bit off there bud:


To be fair, he was just talking about hospitalizations. There are 351 current hospitalizations in Wisconsin. There have been almost 2,000 total hospitalizations in WI.

Of course, that is mostly over just a ~2 month period, and during a time when extreme measures are being used to reduce infections. We'll never know what the numbers would have looked like if no precautions had been taken.

Fonzarelli
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5/14/2020 12:59pm
You didn't say anything about who is "better off", you claimed they were making sacrifices by being unemployed and facing financial ruin. Not going to work but still getting most/all/ more than all of your regular pay is not a sacrifice and is financially ruining none of those 35 million people you mentioned.
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Brtp4
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5/14/2020 1:06pm Edited Date/Time 5/14/2020 3:17pm
OK let me get this straight: you said 250, then when asked said YOU WERE SURE THAT WAS RIGHT, then went to a different number as if you never misspoke the first time, then used the snapshot current total which is not in correct context, then skipped over fact that the total probably was mitigated by lockdown, then overlooked the 169 extra patients waiting for tests, then accused me - LOL - of confirmation bias.

That sound about right?

You could have just said "OK, so I got the number wrong, but I am just sick of being in lockdown because the economic damage worries me" and the whole thing would have lost its air.

To anyone else reading, I see this as the very thing the original video sought to reduce.

BP
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Brtp4
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5/14/2020 1:15pm Edited Date/Time 5/14/2020 1:55pm
Ok, so the article that I cited said "There are also 1,939 hospitalizations associated with the disease." and you said "338 hospitalized". Now, why would my number be different than yours? Could it be confirmation bias or some other reason?

BP
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CM_84
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5/14/2020 1:22pm Edited Date/Time 5/14/2020 1:27pm
pops wrote:
Only 99.9% survive this. Everybody doesn’t die. 4 people in my family have had this virus in the last month. The only person to have an...
Only 99.9% survive this. Everybody doesn’t die. 4 people in my family have had this virus in the last month. The only person to have an issue was the 24 year old with asthma. When the doctors treated the asthma instead of the coronavirus he got better in 24 hours. My 80-year-old dad felt horrible for two weeks in December. Is trying to get the antibody test so he can see if he had it. Way more people have had this and got over it then we will probably ever know.
EngIceDave wrote:
I believe I had it following a trip to Ft Worth and the Glendale SX, though my symptoms were mild But that also means I could...
I believe I had it following a trip to Ft Worth and the Glendale SX, though my symptoms were mild

But that also means I could have spread it to others who got far sicker than I did, maybe even died
pops wrote:
Have you ever had the flu? It can be spread, and the same percentage of people die from it!!!
Hahah.
Come on, I understand the argument that we shouldn’t have such severe lock downs, and that the effect on the economy is too severe. That is a reasonable debate.
But to say that the same percentage die from the seasonal flu, is absolutely delusional.
Roughly the same number of Americans are dying in a single month from Covid, that ordinarily die in a whole year in a particularly bad flu year.
And that is with the most comprehensive social distancing measures in history.
If this is really no worse than the flu, do NY morgues run out of capacity to a point where they store bodies in refrigerated trucks every year?

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Brtp4
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5/14/2020 1:26pm Edited Date/Time 5/14/2020 1:49pm
1. I never said you were biased, I just pushed back on you saying that I was.

2. I am starting to get sick of the lockdown, because people are starting to get wound up about it and that worries me.

3. I think it was smart initially, to get out in front of a problem. Now, I think it is smart to be agile and get out in front of the economic problems. To be clear I do not know exactly what that looks like.

4. I also give a shit about people and businesses that are affected by this, especially my own. Can't stay this way forever IMO.

BP

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davis224
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5/14/2020 1:40pm
Well right now, temporarily, yes. I would get a substantial raise going on unemployment. Enough to buy my own health insurance and break even. Whether or not that is right is another question entirely, but my quality of life would improve quite a bit if I were to get laid off.
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EngIceDave
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5/14/2020 1:41pm
I could be wrong, but doesn't this one post right here make Weege's case?
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5/14/2020 1:41pm
peltier626 wrote:
The lack of trust on every level is the greatest tragedy. I think that's the center of the problem . We must not be naïve and...
The lack of trust on every level is the greatest tragedy. I think that's the center of the problem . We must not be naïve and observe from all perspectives and hopefully use the culmination of information to form our "opinion". There are a lot of angles from the top to the bottom within these troubling times, a lot of inconstancies and unknowns. Hopefully we can unite for the greater good, for the sake of humanity and our time spent on earth. Every once in a while I like to listen to Carl Sagan's "Pale blue dot" excerpt. I find it a reasonable view on humanity. Hopefully in time we come through this as a better civilization.
Get with the program....

On Vital....you're no longer allowed to have an opinion....from here on out...everything everyone says is Cognitive Bias. Dry

That term is already wearing thin....just like social distancing has. Fully biased comment there. LOL



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TbonesPop
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5/14/2020 1:44pm
CM_84 wrote:
Hahah. Come on, I understand the argument that we shouldn’t have such severe lock downs, and that the effect on the economy is too severe. That...
Hahah.
Come on, I understand the argument that we shouldn’t have such severe lock downs, and that the effect on the economy is too severe. That is a reasonable debate.
But to say that the same percentage die from the seasonal flu, is absolutely delusional.
Roughly the same number of Americans are dying in a single month from Covid, that ordinarily die in a whole year in a particularly bad flu year.
And that is with the most comprehensive social distancing measures in history.
If this is really no worse than the flu, do NY morgues run out of capacity to a point where they store bodies in refrigerated trucks every year?

The US data is heavily flawed at this point. We don't know what we don't know to be honest. For example in NY, antibody testing has shown that over 2.5M more people had the virus and never knew it or never tested positive for it. They are logging deaths of people WITH Covid, not deaths FROM Covid - unlike the way that the flu is logged. Its impossible to accurately know the % of deaths in the US (or any country) due to testing and the way things are being tallied. It's likely like this all over the world. There is no accurate way to get the "denominator", let alone an accurate numerator.

The numbers I look at are hospitalizations for Covid per 100,000 people. The denominator is clearly defined. Its also very difficult to fudge the numerator, and frankly the statistic isn't going to get the attention that "DEATHS" will get. So the media isn't looking at it. Anyone that gets hospitalized with Covid is an indicator on how serious the illness is impacting them. Same can be said for the flu.

I think hospitalizations per 100,000 people in a population is one of the key stats to follow. JMHO.
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Brtp4
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5/14/2020 1:51pm
I'm not stupid at all.

Should I rephrase my question?

BP
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TbonesPop
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5/14/2020 2:10pm
I'm not trying to join the internet sword fight with the other guys and you. My question would be, what is the number of "cumulative" hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the state of WI. The cumulative number of Flu hospitalizations per 100,000 people in the US for the 2019-2020 flu season was 69.3 per 100,000 people in the population.

For example, if there have been ~2200 hospitalizations total for Covid 19 in WI and you have 5.8M people in the state, that puts the hospitalizations per 100,000 people currently at 2200/58 = 37.9. The flu in 2019-2020 season for the US was 69.3, but that was cumulative from Oct-April 30 (7 months). Covid data started being collected in February. So we are 3.5 months into the Covid timeframe (ie about half way). To me, right now it looks like the rate is about the same as the flu, but we won't know for sure until the 7 month mark. People way under estimate the severity of the flu IMO, which is also way under reported (and inacurrate). Both are potentially very deadly to certain demographics.
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Brtp4
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5/14/2020 2:12pm Edited Date/Time 5/14/2020 3:21pm
No one ever questioned your greater point. As of now, still no one has. People only questioned your numbers. Despite the apparent simplicity of math, your numbers are now closer but still incorrect.

I don't intend this with ill will - despite some of your choices of words - but you are off the point. No one is challenging you on whether WI should open or not. Was not even brought up. People challenged you on your stated number, which is finite and quantitative (and wrong). For some reason that pissed you off, and now you are hucking word salad in several directions. If you had taken a small step back, and chosen a few words differently, the tone of this thread would be different.

By the way, the point of the thread is how internet conversations are unsustainable.

Regarding my question - the one that you misunderstood and then asked me if I was stupid - the answer is "context". Your number is current hospitalizations and the article that I cited is cumulative.

BP
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CM_84
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5/14/2020 2:20pm
CM_84 wrote:
Hahah. Come on, I understand the argument that we shouldn’t have such severe lock downs, and that the effect on the economy is too severe. That...
Hahah.
Come on, I understand the argument that we shouldn’t have such severe lock downs, and that the effect on the economy is too severe. That is a reasonable debate.
But to say that the same percentage die from the seasonal flu, is absolutely delusional.
Roughly the same number of Americans are dying in a single month from Covid, that ordinarily die in a whole year in a particularly bad flu year.
And that is with the most comprehensive social distancing measures in history.
If this is really no worse than the flu, do NY morgues run out of capacity to a point where they store bodies in refrigerated trucks every year?

TbonesPop wrote:
The US data is heavily flawed at this point. We don't know what we don't know to be honest. For example in NY, antibody testing has...
The US data is heavily flawed at this point. We don't know what we don't know to be honest. For example in NY, antibody testing has shown that over 2.5M more people had the virus and never knew it or never tested positive for it. They are logging deaths of people WITH Covid, not deaths FROM Covid - unlike the way that the flu is logged. Its impossible to accurately know the % of deaths in the US (or any country) due to testing and the way things are being tallied. It's likely like this all over the world. There is no accurate way to get the "denominator", let alone an accurate numerator.

The numbers I look at are hospitalizations for Covid per 100,000 people. The denominator is clearly defined. Its also very difficult to fudge the numerator, and frankly the statistic isn't going to get the attention that "DEATHS" will get. So the media isn't looking at it. Anyone that gets hospitalized with Covid is an indicator on how serious the illness is impacting them. Same can be said for the flu.

I think hospitalizations per 100,000 people in a population is one of the key stats to follow. JMHO.
Yeah I understand that the exact figures are both difficult to get, and flawed when they are counted.
However I think it is clear from what is happening in hospitals and morgues in NY, Italy, France and the UK that this is very clearly not merely a seasonal flu.
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EngIceDave
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5/14/2020 2:23pm
So, if there had been no stay at home stuff, would the numbers of infections and death be the same or greater?
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CM_84
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5/14/2020 3:22pm
EngIceDave wrote:
So, if there had been no stay at home stuff, would the numbers of infections and death be the same or greater?
To get a bit of an idea of the effect these lockdowns have had on infection rates.
The recorded number of flu cases in Australia is something like a 90% drop in April 2020 compared to April 2019.
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TbonesPop
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5/14/2020 4:01pm
CM_84 wrote:
Hahah. Come on, I understand the argument that we shouldn’t have such severe lock downs, and that the effect on the economy is too severe. That...
Hahah.
Come on, I understand the argument that we shouldn’t have such severe lock downs, and that the effect on the economy is too severe. That is a reasonable debate.
But to say that the same percentage die from the seasonal flu, is absolutely delusional.
Roughly the same number of Americans are dying in a single month from Covid, that ordinarily die in a whole year in a particularly bad flu year.
And that is with the most comprehensive social distancing measures in history.
If this is really no worse than the flu, do NY morgues run out of capacity to a point where they store bodies in refrigerated trucks every year?

TbonesPop wrote:
The US data is heavily flawed at this point. We don't know what we don't know to be honest. For example in NY, antibody testing has...
The US data is heavily flawed at this point. We don't know what we don't know to be honest. For example in NY, antibody testing has shown that over 2.5M more people had the virus and never knew it or never tested positive for it. They are logging deaths of people WITH Covid, not deaths FROM Covid - unlike the way that the flu is logged. Its impossible to accurately know the % of deaths in the US (or any country) due to testing and the way things are being tallied. It's likely like this all over the world. There is no accurate way to get the "denominator", let alone an accurate numerator.

The numbers I look at are hospitalizations for Covid per 100,000 people. The denominator is clearly defined. Its also very difficult to fudge the numerator, and frankly the statistic isn't going to get the attention that "DEATHS" will get. So the media isn't looking at it. Anyone that gets hospitalized with Covid is an indicator on how serious the illness is impacting them. Same can be said for the flu.

I think hospitalizations per 100,000 people in a population is one of the key stats to follow. JMHO.
CM_84 wrote:
Yeah I understand that the exact figures are both difficult to get, and flawed when they are counted. However I think it is clear from what...
Yeah I understand that the exact figures are both difficult to get, and flawed when they are counted.
However I think it is clear from what is happening in hospitals and morgues in NY, Italy, France and the UK that this is very clearly not merely a seasonal flu.
Ok ,hang on for a moment. First off, according to CDC data the majority of US flu cases in 2019 and 2020 (flu season) has been of the H1N1 strain, AKA the "Swine Flu" of 2009-2010. Yes, that is still lingering and its still killing people yearly (where is the media hype?). That's not a "seasonal flu" type of illness. It targets younger population of healthy people. That is a very dangerous illness very comparable to Covid 19. It's not your typical "seasonal flu" that is currently the seasonal flu. Please stop down playing that part of it. As for the rest of the strains of the seasonal flu, those infections are very different from Covid as well as the H1N1, extremely different. But the overall impact of all of them is still the overall impact to the population. Hospitalizations per 100,000 people is still hospitalizations per 100,000 people. Its a very good barometer of the severity of any illness.

TbonesPop
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5/14/2020 4:17pm
EngIceDave wrote:
So, if there had been no stay at home stuff, would the numbers of infections and death be the same or greater?
I'm of the opinion that initially the stay at home order was justified to help slow the spread to keep the healthcare system from being overwhelmed. What it also did was give time to businesses to adjust their protocols for safety (distancing placards, glass shields at counter tops, etc.) It also gave the manufacturing industry the opportunity to catch back up with the PPE needs (gloves, face masks, hand sanitizer, etc). So it was very much needed for a time and I supported and followed it. We are now beyond that time though.

For example, I went into a fuel station in central CA yesterday after getting gas. I have a box of latex gloves I use to fuel up (just use one glove on one hand, so I don't touch the pump handle and keyboard). Afterward, wearing a face mask I go in to the store to get a bottle of water and snack. I keep my distance by staying on the markings on the floor. I pay with my debit card (no glove) and punch in my pin, then put my debit card away. Immediately after putting my debit card away, they have a 1 gallon jug of hand sanitizer next to the credit card point of sale unit. I get two squirts of hand sanitizer. I then walk through the automatic doors (I don't have to touch to open) and go back to my rental car to leave. Upon getting into the car, I wipe my hands one last time with a wet wipe and take off my mask.
That's pretty damn safe protocol if you ask me. 2 months ago, that wasn't possible. I felt extremely confident I didn't contract anything at that point.

Bottom line is, there was a time when the above wasn't possible which thus made sense to stay home until things caught up. We're now caught up and can operate safely and responsibly. I fully agree that temporarily shutting things down helped with the numbers being lower, no question. Now that we have protocol in place, PPE being restocked, etc, its high time to open the economy back up doing it responsibly. The detrimental economic impacts of staying shut down is at inflection point where that is going to be worse than dealing with the virus itself. Those people wanting to keep the economy shutdown seem to have a keen political presence/angle about them I have noticed.

Its simply: if people can act as responsibly as I and the business did above then shutting down the economy is unnecessary.
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TbonesPop
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5/14/2020 4:22pm
EngIceDave wrote:
So, if there had been no stay at home stuff, would the numbers of infections and death be the same or greater?
CM_84 wrote:
To get a bit of an idea of the effect these lockdowns have had on infection rates. The recorded number of flu cases in Australia is...
To get a bit of an idea of the effect these lockdowns have had on infection rates.
The recorded number of flu cases in Australia is something like a 90% drop in April 2020 compared to April 2019.
One of our key suppliers is in Australia (have a conf call with him here in 10 min). His business has been absolutely devastated by the lock down and he's relying on us to keep him going (a lot of which falls on my shoulders). I'm doing what I can so he can stay in business and continue to be a good supplier to us. Congrats on your infection rates being down in AU. But what happens if there is no economy left for the people when this is all lifted?
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bird
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5/14/2020 4:30pm
TbonesPop wrote:
The US data is heavily flawed at this point. We don't know what we don't know to be honest. For example in NY, antibody testing has...
The US data is heavily flawed at this point. We don't know what we don't know to be honest. For example in NY, antibody testing has shown that over 2.5M more people had the virus and never knew it or never tested positive for it. They are logging deaths of people WITH Covid, not deaths FROM Covid - unlike the way that the flu is logged. Its impossible to accurately know the % of deaths in the US (or any country) due to testing and the way things are being tallied. It's likely like this all over the world. There is no accurate way to get the "denominator", let alone an accurate numerator.

The numbers I look at are hospitalizations for Covid per 100,000 people. The denominator is clearly defined. Its also very difficult to fudge the numerator, and frankly the statistic isn't going to get the attention that "DEATHS" will get. So the media isn't looking at it. Anyone that gets hospitalized with Covid is an indicator on how serious the illness is impacting them. Same can be said for the flu.

I think hospitalizations per 100,000 people in a population is one of the key stats to follow. JMHO.
There is a lot of confusion about the death certificates online. The rules have not changed for COVID-19, it's just the first time laymen are hearing about them. Here is a post from a doctor explaining it. https://www.instagram.com/p/B_qDkBSpBd3/

From the CDC's memo on COVID-19 reporting; "In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as “probable” or “presumed.” In these instances, certifiers should use their best clinical judgement in determining if a COVID–19 infection was likely. However, please note that testing for COVID–19 should be conducted whenever possible."
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf
RichieW13
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5/14/2020 4:33pm Edited Date/Time 5/14/2020 4:34pm
EngIceDave wrote:
So, if there had been no stay at home stuff, would the numbers of infections and death be the same or greater?
TbonesPop wrote:
I'm of the opinion that initially the stay at home order was justified to help slow the spread to keep the healthcare system from being overwhelmed...
I'm of the opinion that initially the stay at home order was justified to help slow the spread to keep the healthcare system from being overwhelmed. What it also did was give time to businesses to adjust their protocols for safety (distancing placards, glass shields at counter tops, etc.) It also gave the manufacturing industry the opportunity to catch back up with the PPE needs (gloves, face masks, hand sanitizer, etc). So it was very much needed for a time and I supported and followed it. We are now beyond that time though.

For example, I went into a fuel station in central CA yesterday after getting gas. I have a box of latex gloves I use to fuel up (just use one glove on one hand, so I don't touch the pump handle and keyboard). Afterward, wearing a face mask I go in to the store to get a bottle of water and snack. I keep my distance by staying on the markings on the floor. I pay with my debit card (no glove) and punch in my pin, then put my debit card away. Immediately after putting my debit card away, they have a 1 gallon jug of hand sanitizer next to the credit card point of sale unit. I get two squirts of hand sanitizer. I then walk through the automatic doors (I don't have to touch to open) and go back to my rental car to leave. Upon getting into the car, I wipe my hands one last time with a wet wipe and take off my mask.
That's pretty damn safe protocol if you ask me. 2 months ago, that wasn't possible. I felt extremely confident I didn't contract anything at that point.

Bottom line is, there was a time when the above wasn't possible which thus made sense to stay home until things caught up. We're now caught up and can operate safely and responsibly. I fully agree that temporarily shutting things down helped with the numbers being lower, no question. Now that we have protocol in place, PPE being restocked, etc, its high time to open the economy back up doing it responsibly. The detrimental economic impacts of staying shut down is at inflection point where that is going to be worse than dealing with the virus itself. Those people wanting to keep the economy shutdown seem to have a keen political presence/angle about them I have noticed.

Its simply: if people can act as responsibly as I and the business did above then shutting down the economy is unnecessary.
Yep, everything you say makes sense, except PPE is not restocked. Purchasing masks is not easy. Finding hand sanitizer is not easy. I have been trying to buy things like Clorox wipes or Clorox general purpose cleaner since March, but haven't seen them in the stores even once.

I don't entirely know how the Defense Production Act works, but it should have been used to fill the gaps on the PPE noted above along with the supplies needed for COVID testing. It really seems like a lot of the past two months were wasted as far as trying to prepare us for life with COVID.
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CM_84
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5/14/2020 4:46pm
You are right, and hospitalisations per 100,000 is a good barometer, however given the wide ranging social distancing measures in place the spread is likely to be slowed, so comparing merely that is not apples to apples.
I am not down playing the severity of either the seasonal flu, nor H1N1. I am merely saying this novel virus is proving to be worse. This is not my view, it is that of the CDC, WHO, leading scientists in the field, governments etc.

I personally think death rates compared to hospitalisations is a better guide, because you should (however not perfectly given deaths can be caused by multiple factors, but the same should apply to both swine flu, seasonal flu and Covid) have more accurate figures for both the numerator and denominator.

2018-2019 flu season
Total U.S. hospitalizations: 490,561
Total U.S. deaths: 34,157
Percentage of deaths that are 65+: 83.3%

2009-10 swine flu season
Total U.S. hospitalizations: 139,866
Total U.S. deaths: 12,469
Percentage of deaths that are 65+: 87%

Covid 19
Total U.S. hospitalizations: 128,673
Total U.S. deaths: 55,906
Percentage of deaths that are 65+: 74.8%

Source https://kjzz.com/news/by-the-numbers-traditional-flu-vs-covid-19
data is from the CDC
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