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There are definitely hardships for other people and I would like to see new laws and programs passed to eventually protect everyone, But those 35 million you mention are doing pretty darned good.
https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/hosp-data.htm
FWIW, Wisconsin is very similar to California in terms of: COVID Cases, Tests and Deaths per capita.
I don't like it, but at least I know better to stay away from other people, wash my hands and wear a mask when in public, not going out to "pop bottles in da club"
The Shop
Seems that number is wrong.
https://abc7chicago.com/coronavirus-wisconsin-cases-update-covid-19/610…
"Wisconsin health officials announced 10,902 positive COVID-19 cases and 421 COVID-19-related deaths. There are also 1,908 COVID-19 hospitalizations in the state."
https://www.tmj4.com/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-in-wisconsin-all-the-…
So, a question for you: you made a lengthy point that was built on information that was incorrect. Then, skipped over a chance to double check your information, then suggested that despite the fact that I made no claim to what the correct number was, suggested I had confirmation bias, then skipped over all that to double down and made another claim. No one made any claims about overreach, number of cases, etc. No one mentioned your conclusion, you were only asked you if you were sure about your facts, which we knew were incorrect. Now, you seem to be somewhat wound up and defensive.
For sure, any additional discussion of your point will probably just be escalating noise, and not any sort of exchange of info.
Is this what Jason Wiegant was talking about?
BP
And there it is.
BP
Of course, that is mostly over just a ~2 month period, and during a time when extreme measures are being used to reduce infections. We'll never know what the numbers would have looked like if no precautions had been taken.
That sound about right?
You could have just said "OK, so I got the number wrong, but I am just sick of being in lockdown because the economic damage worries me" and the whole thing would have lost its air.
To anyone else reading, I see this as the very thing the original video sought to reduce.
BP
BP
Come on, I understand the argument that we shouldn’t have such severe lock downs, and that the effect on the economy is too severe. That is a reasonable debate.
But to say that the same percentage die from the seasonal flu, is absolutely delusional.
Roughly the same number of Americans are dying in a single month from Covid, that ordinarily die in a whole year in a particularly bad flu year.
And that is with the most comprehensive social distancing measures in history.
If this is really no worse than the flu, do NY morgues run out of capacity to a point where they store bodies in refrigerated trucks every year?
2. I am starting to get sick of the lockdown, because people are starting to get wound up about it and that worries me.
3. I think it was smart initially, to get out in front of a problem. Now, I think it is smart to be agile and get out in front of the economic problems. To be clear I do not know exactly what that looks like.
4. I also give a shit about people and businesses that are affected by this, especially my own. Can't stay this way forever IMO.
BP
On Vital....you're no longer allowed to have an opinion....from here on out...everything everyone says is Cognitive Bias.
That term is already wearing thin....just like social distancing has. Fully biased comment there. LOL
The numbers I look at are hospitalizations for Covid per 100,000 people. The denominator is clearly defined. Its also very difficult to fudge the numerator, and frankly the statistic isn't going to get the attention that "DEATHS" will get. So the media isn't looking at it. Anyone that gets hospitalized with Covid is an indicator on how serious the illness is impacting them. Same can be said for the flu.
I think hospitalizations per 100,000 people in a population is one of the key stats to follow. JMHO.
Pit Row
Should I rephrase my question?
BP
For example, if there have been ~2200 hospitalizations total for Covid 19 in WI and you have 5.8M people in the state, that puts the hospitalizations per 100,000 people currently at 2200/58 = 37.9. The flu in 2019-2020 season for the US was 69.3, but that was cumulative from Oct-April 30 (7 months). Covid data started being collected in February. So we are 3.5 months into the Covid timeframe (ie about half way). To me, right now it looks like the rate is about the same as the flu, but we won't know for sure until the 7 month mark. People way under estimate the severity of the flu IMO, which is also way under reported (and inacurrate). Both are potentially very deadly to certain demographics.
I don't intend this with ill will - despite some of your choices of words - but you are off the point. No one is challenging you on whether WI should open or not. Was not even brought up. People challenged you on your stated number, which is finite and quantitative (and wrong). For some reason that pissed you off, and now you are hucking word salad in several directions. If you had taken a small step back, and chosen a few words differently, the tone of this thread would be different.
By the way, the point of the thread is how internet conversations are unsustainable.
Regarding my question - the one that you misunderstood and then asked me if I was stupid - the answer is "context". Your number is current hospitalizations and the article that I cited is cumulative.
BP
However I think it is clear from what is happening in hospitals and morgues in NY, Italy, France and the UK that this is very clearly not merely a seasonal flu.
The recorded number of flu cases in Australia is something like a 90% drop in April 2020 compared to April 2019.
For example, I went into a fuel station in central CA yesterday after getting gas. I have a box of latex gloves I use to fuel up (just use one glove on one hand, so I don't touch the pump handle and keyboard). Afterward, wearing a face mask I go in to the store to get a bottle of water and snack. I keep my distance by staying on the markings on the floor. I pay with my debit card (no glove) and punch in my pin, then put my debit card away. Immediately after putting my debit card away, they have a 1 gallon jug of hand sanitizer next to the credit card point of sale unit. I get two squirts of hand sanitizer. I then walk through the automatic doors (I don't have to touch to open) and go back to my rental car to leave. Upon getting into the car, I wipe my hands one last time with a wet wipe and take off my mask.
That's pretty damn safe protocol if you ask me. 2 months ago, that wasn't possible. I felt extremely confident I didn't contract anything at that point.
Bottom line is, there was a time when the above wasn't possible which thus made sense to stay home until things caught up. We're now caught up and can operate safely and responsibly. I fully agree that temporarily shutting things down helped with the numbers being lower, no question. Now that we have protocol in place, PPE being restocked, etc, its high time to open the economy back up doing it responsibly. The detrimental economic impacts of staying shut down is at inflection point where that is going to be worse than dealing with the virus itself. Those people wanting to keep the economy shutdown seem to have a keen political presence/angle about them I have noticed.
Its simply: if people can act as responsibly as I and the business did above then shutting down the economy is unnecessary.
From the CDC's memo on COVID-19 reporting; "In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as “probable” or “presumed.” In these instances, certifiers should use their best clinical judgement in determining if a COVID–19 infection was likely. However, please note that testing for COVID–19 should be conducted whenever possible."
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf
I don't entirely know how the Defense Production Act works, but it should have been used to fill the gaps on the PPE noted above along with the supplies needed for COVID testing. It really seems like a lot of the past two months were wasted as far as trying to prepare us for life with COVID.
I am not down playing the severity of either the seasonal flu, nor H1N1. I am merely saying this novel virus is proving to be worse. This is not my view, it is that of the CDC, WHO, leading scientists in the field, governments etc.
I personally think death rates compared to hospitalisations is a better guide, because you should (however not perfectly given deaths can be caused by multiple factors, but the same should apply to both swine flu, seasonal flu and Covid) have more accurate figures for both the numerator and denominator.
2018-2019 flu season
Total U.S. hospitalizations: 490,561
Total U.S. deaths: 34,157
Percentage of deaths that are 65+: 83.3%
2009-10 swine flu season
Total U.S. hospitalizations: 139,866
Total U.S. deaths: 12,469
Percentage of deaths that are 65+: 87%
Covid 19
Total U.S. hospitalizations: 128,673
Total U.S. deaths: 55,906
Percentage of deaths that are 65+: 74.8%
Source https://kjzz.com/news/by-the-numbers-traditional-flu-vs-covid-19
data is from the CDC
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