Webb & the numbers

Dont get too far ahead of yourself. We no longer have Dungey who gets podiums every race. We have the most stacked field which makes it very start dependent. So although Webb is riding great he could back it up with a random 7th. IMO if Marv didn't tip over he would have won with his stamina.
He was 8 seconds down after the crash and within 2 at the checkers while passing Eli and Ken.

Round 4

All I am saying is that history puts the odds on his side...

jakefortyeight wrote:

All I am saying is that history puts the odds on his side...

or its Musquins year to shine ..

jakefortyeight wrote:

All I am saying is that history puts the odds on his side...

RichardLoots wrote:

or its Musquins year to shine ..

Or Eli or Kenny, or Baggett.... lots of great guys all 2-5 years into their 450 careers.

hartebreak wrote:

Or Eli or Kenny, or Baggett.... lots of great guys all 2-5 years into their 450 careers.

exactly ..but Musquin is with Aldon as mentioned in his last point

You have some incorrect information.

Ricky moved up in 1999 and didn't win until 2001. He won outdoors in 2000, which is the same year he moved up in that championship.

Villopoto moved up in 2009.

Anderson moved up in 2015.

First, Carmichael didn’t win a title until 2001. RV moved to 450 in 2009.

Second, all of those guys had multiple podiums and race wins in their first year.

Nice try, but with the exception of Anderson none of those guys struggled in the 450 class in their year.

The way i see it,the cream will rise by Daytona sx. As a pre guess, the #3, 25 & 94 should be shoe ins.

ando wrote:

First, Carmichael didn’t win a title until 2001. RV moved to 450 in 2009.

Second, all of those guys had multiple podiums and race wins in their first year.

Nice try, but with the exception of Anderson none of those guys struggled in the 450 class in their year.

Oh brother....

1. Carmichael won his first 250 Otdoor title in 2000 beating Tortelli after getting waxed by McGrath that year in SX

2. RV only made it two rounds in '09 before moving up full time to the 450 class in 2010.

3. 'Struggle" says who? You / me? Really not worth arguing over subjective stuff. I go with what the riders themselves said. None of the riders I mentioned were happy with their first year(s) after moving up, A win here or there didn't satisfy them and they ALL expected better of themselves. Exactly why they went on to win Championships later...

And yep - got Anderson wrong. It didn't take him two years to win a Championship after moving up. It took him three years - my bad. He moved up in '15 not '16.

Kinda helps prove my point though doesn't it...

Webb wouldn't be the first to move up coming off of a Lites / 125 Championship and have to pay his dues before winning a Big Boy Championship. In the last decade or so (See list above) most of the premier class Champions took a while until they won a Championship.

I picked Webb for the SX Championship this year last October based on the above facts, the team he is on and the people who he has surrounded himself with.

Who did you pick?

Im surprised by all the thumbs down here.

What is probably the most intriguing aspect of Cooper Webb this year, is what he talked about on pulpx last monday. Things were rocky at first with Aldon Baker, mostly because of how surprising it was that he wasnt in the best shape. He admitted he told Aldon not to worry as much because once at the races he "turns it on". Aldon was like "no". And he just recently started going full out all week all off season. That, to me, says alot. Especially when his competitors (Anderson, Musquin) have been doing this for years.

Claerhout wrote:

Im surprised by all the thumbs down here.

What is probably the most intriguing aspect of Cooper Webb this year, is what he talked about on pulpx last monday. Things were rocky at first with Aldon Baker, mostly because of how surprising it was that he wasnt in the best shape. He admitted he told Aldon not to worry as much because once at the races he "turns it on". Aldon was like "no". And he just recently started going full out all week all off season. That, to me, says alot. Especially when his competitors (Anderson, Musquin) have been doing this for years.

Outside of "the numbers" attitude is huge. Cooper was raw and honest in that interview and exemplified exactly the attitude it takes to win a Championship.

So what does Webb have that the "stacked field" doesn't have outside of the odds and the right attitude? Decoster & Baker. I have said it before.... If it was your retirement savings and the 450 class team managers and trainers were brokers, who would you put your hard earned savings with if you wanted to make some $$$?

Not even close in my book. Based on past performance, I would sleep pretty good at night knowing my money was safe with DeCoster & Baker.

And who is most likely to challenge Webb? Marv of course

- Yeah, I know DeCoster is no longer the team Manager - by name

Spudinki25 wrote:

Dont get too far ahead of yourself. We no longer have Dungey who gets podiums every race. We have the most stacked field which makes it very start dependent. So although Webb is riding great he could back it up with a random 7th. IMO if Marv didn't tip over he would have won with his stamina.
He was 8 seconds down after the crash and within 2 at the checkers while passing Eli and Ken.

I think it’s the most unstacked.
Lack of premium talent.

jakefortyeight wrote:

I wrote this last October...

So Webb is at KTM and hasn't done so well in the 450 class his first few years. Can he win a 450 title? The odds are looking pretty good for him - if history means anything.

Riders who struggled going from 125 to 250 or 250 to 450 class before winning a Championship

Carmichael - Moved up in 1999 - won first Championship in 2000

Reed - Moved up in 2003 - won first Championship in 2004

Stewart - Moved up in 2005 - won first Championship in 2007

RV - Moved up in 2010 - won first Championship in 2011

Dungey - Moved up in 2010 - won Championship first year, but didn't win another Championship again until 2015

Anderson - Moved up in 2016 - won first Championship in 2018

Also worth noting is that Webb is now under the watchful eye of DeCoster and Baker as Training Coach

As Team Manager DeCoster has won 23 Championships and Managed Team USA to 4 Trophe Des Nations titles and 22 Motocross Des Nations titles.

Baker has coached his riders to 29 Championships (17 Supercross Championship titles and 12 National Motocross titles) - many riders of which did not win until they came under Baker's training program.

Can Webb win? No reason not to. It looks more like it is his to lose...

You're saying all those guys struggled to win their first championship? Because it wasn't their rookie year?

The stat that matters is that they won within the first couple years. None of the past several champions were as deep into their 450 career as Roczen, Tomac and Musquin. They are all outside the window of time that every other champion took to get it done. No one has won their first supercross championship after that many years without one.

ando wrote:

First, Carmichael didn’t win a title until 2001. RV moved to 450 in 2009.

Second, all of those guys had multiple podiums and race wins in their first year.

Nice try, but with the exception of Anderson none of those guys struggled in the 450 class in their year.

jakefortyeight wrote:

Oh brother....

1. Carmichael won his first 250 Otdoor title in 2000 beating Tortelli after getting waxed by McGrath that year in SX

2. RV only made it two rounds in '09 before moving up full time to the 450 class in 2010.

3. 'Struggle" says who? You / me? Really not worth arguing over subjective stuff. I go with what the riders themselves said. None of the riders I mentioned were happy with their first year(s) after moving up, A win here or there didn't satisfy them and they ALL expected better of themselves. Exactly why they went on to win Championships later...

And yep - got Anderson wrong. It didn't take him two years to win a Championship after moving up. It took him three years - my bad. He moved up in '15 not '16.

Kinda helps prove my point though doesn't it...

Webb wouldn't be the first to move up coming off of a Lites / 125 Championship and have to pay his dues before winning a Big Boy Championship. In the last decade or so (See list above) most of the premier class Champions took a while until they won a Championship.

I picked Webb for the SX Championship this year last October based on the above facts, the team he is on and the people who he has surrounded himself with.

Who did you pick?

RV won a couple of SX's after recovering from being sick plus demolished everyone including Alessi at Glen Helen before blowing up his knee.

jakefortyeight wrote:

I wrote this last October...

So Webb is at KTM and hasn't done so well in the 450 class his first few years. Can he win a 450 title? The odds are looking pretty good for him - if history means anything.

Riders who struggled going from 125 to 250 or 250 to 450 class before winning a Championship

Carmichael - Moved up in 1999 - won first Championship in 2000

Reed - Moved up in 2003 - won first Championship in 2004

Stewart - Moved up in 2005 - won first Championship in 2007

RV - Moved up in 2010 - won first Championship in 2011

Dungey - Moved up in 2010 - won Championship first year, but didn't win another Championship again until 2015

Anderson - Moved up in 2016 - won first Championship in 2018

Also worth noting is that Webb is now under the watchful eye of DeCoster and Baker as Training Coach

As Team Manager DeCoster has won 23 Championships and Managed Team USA to 4 Trophe Des Nations titles and 22 Motocross Des Nations titles.

Baker has coached his riders to 29 Championships (17 Supercross Championship titles and 12 National Motocross titles) - many riders of which did not win until they came under Baker's training program.

Can Webb win? No reason not to. It looks more like it is his to lose...

rehan53 wrote:

You're saying all those guys struggled to win their first championship? Because it wasn't their rookie year?

The stat that matters is that they won within the first couple years. None of the past several champions were as deep into their 450 career as Roczen, Tomac and Musquin. They are all outside the window of time that every other champion took to get it done. No one has won their first supercross championship after that many years without one.

Dungey had his first yea, but then took him a long time before he went on his run.

Stewart won the world supercross title in 2006.

ando wrote:

First, Carmichael didn’t win a title until 2001. RV moved to 450 in 2009.

Second, all of those guys had multiple podiums and race wins in their first year.

Nice try, but with the exception of Anderson none of those guys struggled in the 450 class in their year.

jakefortyeight wrote:

Oh brother....

1. Carmichael won his first 250 Otdoor title in 2000 beating Tortelli after getting waxed by McGrath that year in SX

2. RV only made it two rounds in '09 before moving up full time to the 450 class in 2010.

3. 'Struggle" says who? You / me? Really not worth arguing over subjective stuff. I go with what the riders themselves said. None of the riders I mentioned were happy with their first year(s) after moving up, A win here or there didn't satisfy them and they ALL expected better of themselves. Exactly why they went on to win Championships later...

And yep - got Anderson wrong. It didn't take him two years to win a Championship after moving up. It took him three years - my bad. He moved up in '15 not '16.

Kinda helps prove my point though doesn't it...

Webb wouldn't be the first to move up coming off of a Lites / 125 Championship and have to pay his dues before winning a Big Boy Championship. In the last decade or so (See list above) most of the premier class Champions took a while until they won a Championship.

I picked Webb for the SX Championship this year last October based on the above facts, the team he is on and the people who he has surrounded himself with.

Who did you pick?

RV was full-time in 2009. He raced almost the entire series, and even won two races. Your memory sucks.

Weege had a great point on the aftershow today about how Webb actually had the holeshot at A1 but slid out and crashed. Then had that amazing comeback to 5th. At the time it looked like here we go again but in hindsight it looks like his starts have been dialed in the whole time and his charge to 5th there shows his speed has too. Remember that race was raining and AC slid off the track too at the start with many others. Looking deeper into it it seems like this has been an even longer time in the making and hes the real deal.

jakefortyeight wrote:

All I am saying is that history puts the odds on his side...

Unless Cooper Webb literally IS those guys, history says absolutely jack shit about his odds. The truth is, we have no idea...but the actual odds still favor seasoned, consistent high scoring riders like Tomac and Musquin for the championship.

Do they though? Im curious because with Tomacs amount of wins and dominating series if anything it should have happened already. The fact that it hasnt with those dominant series means it may be even harder now. A dnf without the wins could be worse. There may be something to the stat because whatever has been holding him back...always holds him back. Same with Roczen history says hes gonna wad *jesus I hope not, and it also says Musquin will do just enough to get 2nd. He did just enough this weekend...to get 2nd. Idk I agree with you obviously and my money is still on Tomac but playing devils advocate I see the other side too.

1down5up wrote:

The way i see it,the cream will rise by Daytona sx. As a pre guess, the #3, 25 & 94 should be shoe ins.

This.

However Webb's comments about training intensity are surprising to me, especially since he was training with Swanepoel right? Thought that program was intense aswell

Spudinki25 wrote:

Dont get too far ahead of yourself. We no longer have Dungey who gets podiums every race. We have the most stacked field which makes it very start dependent. So although Webb is riding great he could back it up with a random 7th. IMO if Marv didn't tip over he would have won with his stamina.
He was 8 seconds down after the crash and within 2 at the checkers while passing Eli and Ken.

Yeah Marvin was ripping

Talk about cherry picking stats to fit a narrative... look at these riders full rookie years. Not just sx... every single one aside from Anderson was winning their rookie year either in sx or mx. So to compare someone who just got their first 2 wins after 3yrs? in either class To someone who was racking up wins or championships in another discipline is crazy.

So 1 out of the past 17 sx championships came from a guy who didn’t win any in his rookie year.. the “stats” as you say couldn’t be farther from Webb’s side.

The dude is as some say “like, literally, legit riding the wheels off his bike” and he may not lose another race in his career. But to go ahead and crown him champ is a little excessive to me.

visser62 wrote:

RV was full-time in 2009. He raced almost the entire series, and even won two races. Your memory sucks.

Haha.. yeah my memory sucks no need to argue about that. Yep, RV started in 2009 vs 2010 - just proves my point further...

As far as my point goes, history is a pretty reliable look at what the future holds. Even in motocross. Forget Webb. At this point in history, you would be foolish to bet against DeCoster and Baker.

As far as Webb goes...

The SX class is "stacked" this year not because the top 15 riders are all so good (they have always been good). It's because they are all good riders on equipment that is all pretty much the same. The difference this year is that there isn't really that one stand out rider that is dominating.

And for me, I always look at that stand out rider to see what does he have that the others don't? Talent? Bike set up? Massive funding from a "factory" team? Pretty much all of the top 15+ riders have all of that.

What distinguishes the top rider is his attitude.

Webb has developed the right attitude this year. The gunfighter finger point at Roczen was just a result of that attitude.

If he can keep the "attitude" he will take it.

Webb is getting good starts and looking good
Great to see finally

jakefortyeight wrote:

All I am saying is that history puts the odds on his side...

RichardLoots wrote:

or its Musquins year to shine ..

Yeah no kidding. By your math, Musquin should be the one more likely to win the title then.

nrosso391 wrote:

Yeah no kidding. By your math, Musquin should be the one more likely to win the title then.

1. It's not my math - it's history

2. Yes history does say Marv has better odds than the other riders.

3. Between Marv & Webb it is about attitude

4. I am going with Webb over Marv

RichardLoots wrote:

or its Musquins year to shine ..

nrosso391 wrote:

Yeah no kidding. By your math, Musquin should be the one more likely to win the title then.

jakefortyeight wrote:

1. It's not my math - it's history

2. Yes history does say Marv has better odds than the other riders.

3. Between Marv & Webb it is about attitude

4. I am going with Webb over Marv

I like Webb, when he was on 250s.. I'd like to see him do well, but he's not the first pick for a championship winner this year. I still say its a Roczen or Tomac SX year.