Unique theory on Tomac

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9/7/2020 11:44 PM

I hope this theory isn’t too out there, but i honestly do think it could hold some merit. Especially after seeing how damn good Eli was through sx this year and how he seems more mortal so suddenly.

Eli hasn’t really gotten Injured since 2015. That’s a whole half a decade competing at the highest level and being no less than a top three guy in every series. As shitty as it is to see anyone get injured, most top guys do. Villopoto missed half of 2010, half of 2012, and skipped 2014 outdoors to deal with a nagging injury. Stew missed 08 sx and then went on to be sx only. Even dungey missed a lot of 2012 sx and 2016 mx. We see this even more with the recent crop of top guys missing near-whole seasons (Webb, Osborne, Anderson, Marv have all missed 1 or more whole series worth of racing in the past 3 years when adding up all the tile they missed sidelined)

But not Tomac. Honestly think he’s burnt out a bit because of so much seat time compared to the rest. Again, injuries suck and I’m not saying getting injured is good, but it is time off the bike. Tomac has probably raced more races over the past few years than any other pro rider (and won a 450 title in 4 out of the last 5 years). I think his near perfect attendance might be a bit fatiguing, but, again, it’s just a theory I was thinking about.

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9/8/2020 12:16 AM

Maybe his trainer should take this theory on board and hire Tonya Harding to assist.

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9/8/2020 12:29 AM

That plus being a babydaddy.

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9/8/2020 12:29 AM

My opinion:

This year has been a bit of a shit show for everyone. Tomac is a 3 time outdoor champ. He finally just won his first SX title. I truly think that if the opportunity to win is there, he will go for it. If the opportunity isn’t there, he’s not going to push to try and make it happen. I truly believe that he doesn’t care 100% about getting this title this year and just isn’t willing to hang it out.

Next year we will see a renewed Tomac that will do his best to not only backup his SX title, but will also be 100% ready and willing to get another outdoor title.

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9/8/2020 12:57 AM

I kind of agree with your theory and I think it’s a contributing factor but I don’t think this burn out (or whatever you want to call it) is a permanent thing. I think on top of what you said this season has been extra long (they would usually be in the off season by now). Also him and Kenny were the only two really in contention for the SX title when the whole Covid deal started, so I have to think they were staying a little more prepared during that time off than the others.

On top of all this Osborne and the others been riding extremely well.

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9/8/2020 1:48 AM

I think his body language on the bike speaks volumes, he's clearly a tad off and likely due to multiple reasons including those expressed above maybe we'll learn about long after he retires.

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9/8/2020 2:10 AM
Edited Date/Time: 9/8/2020 2:13 AM

His pace seems fine, he just can’t get off the gate and then the reluctance to slice through traffic kicks in. Ferandis proved all the one line theory wrong about Red Bud.
He’s a cracking dirt bike rider but some times the passion isn’t there when the chips are down.
One other theory- can any or you out there that are parents remember the first few months of your first child. My house was a disruptive no sleep zone but a great experience non the less.
Your just not that productive when your body clock is all over the place. This will pass.

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9/8/2020 2:15 AM

Personally....the others are simply faster

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9/8/2020 2:29 AM
Edited Date/Time: 9/8/2020 2:30 AM

teamddr wrote:

His pace seems fine, he just can’t get off the gate and then the reluctance to slice through traffic kicks in. Ferandis proved all the one line theory wrong about Red Bud.
He’s a cracking dirt bike rider but some times the passion isn’t there when the chips are down.
One other theory- can any or you out there that are parents remember the first few months of your first child. My house was a disruptive no sleep zone but a great experience non the less.
Your just not that productive when your body clock is all over the place. This will pass.

My boy is 10 months old. I’m not far enough away from the first 3 months of parent hood to forget it 🤣 Its a crazy time learning a new way of life!

The other thing I never thought of before becoming a parent (not to be too dark here) is death. If it’s extreme sports related I’ve tried it (outside of jumping out of a plane) been 160+ on the streets in cars, 180+ on street bikes, wheelies through traffic, hucked dirt bikes stupid lengths at stupid speeds. Since my boy came Into this world death became a real thing and I need to be here for him. It’s changed my whole perspective on life and the risks I’m willing to take. Something only being a parent will make you understand.

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9/8/2020 3:07 AM

The OP has a plausible theory. No matter the reason. I think it will be tough to get back to form next year. He’s let guys think they can beat him. That’s a dangerous game to play. Every sport has a mental edge and when you give your opponent’s confidence they can beat you, it’s tough to mentally beat them back down.

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9/8/2020 4:10 AM

Probably tired of the grind and is looking forward to retirement.

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Non Gratum Anus Rodentum

9/8/2020 4:44 AM

Boomslang wrote:

Probably tired of the grind and is looking forward to retirement.

Aren’t we all?

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9/8/2020 4:49 AM

Hes not burned out. Hes already accomplished what he needs to fir the year and a freak incident put him way down in the points. Why risk injury trying to win every race to catch up?

This is the 3 being smart.

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9/8/2020 5:04 AM

He knows hes not getting the title unless ZO messes up big time. I think if theres a point in this series where the door opens up for the title we will see him try for it. Until then hes got supercross to worry about.

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9/8/2020 5:06 AM

kiwifan wrote:

Personally....the others are simply faster

Riiiight. Just like that, they all passed him up and he no longer has it.

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9/8/2020 5:24 AM

kiwifan wrote:

Personally....the others are simply faster

Mr. Afterbar wrote:

Riiiight. Just like that, they all passed him up and he no longer has it.

Yeah they are faster this year and the tracks haven’t been good for him. He just hasn’t had the flow around them.
Hang town, Glen Helen, Washougal, Southwick, Pala- They are tracks he can let rip on.
2020 is a write off and he’ll mail it in I reckon.

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9/8/2020 5:30 AM

No one is on 100% of the time.
When he's off, he's off, he doesn't chase it, pressing his luck.


Some see that as smart racing

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9/8/2020 5:35 AM

Could also be that the fan's expectations are too high. Like all humans, Eli has his ups and downs. We probably shouldn't be setting standards as high as those set by the likes of Carmichael. I think it's fine to ask why he isn't as dominant as last year, but as Langston said, even being off 1%, which everyone is sometimes, is enough to see you off the podium this year.

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9/8/2020 5:38 AM

Just remember that even though he’s clearly a little off, he would still be in the title fight if he didn’t DNF both motos at round 2

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9/8/2020 5:42 AM

🐥 The sky is falling.

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9/8/2020 5:57 AM

2 dead bikes...and some of you were mad at him for tossing his bike down. now you know why he was so mad. nothing like starting out in a hole...and guys making comments on vitalmx every day about how hes lost it. lol.

take those 2 dead bikes and give him 2 5th place finishes....and hes right in the title hunt. he had a right to let his bike hit the ground...he was mad...people get mad once in while.

if ferrandis wins the title because of the knockdown of jeremy, gonna suck. was a shitty move on a points leader.

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9/8/2020 6:44 AM

I think if the season was normal length than maybe it would be different. But he’s in a huge hole and Zach is ripping so why hang it out and risk injury? If supercross season starts off normal time like everyone says they are sure it will, why risk injury or wearing yourself out with an even shorter off season when you have a huge deficit. He also needs Musquin to have bad days aswell not just Zacho

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9/8/2020 7:13 AM

I think its a bit of everything.

One thing to consider is the other riders stepping it up... Tomac has dominated rhe last 3 seasons, so automatically guys on the gate might be at a psychological disadvantage, whether they know it or not, whether they like it or not.

All of a sudden, add in a poor start to the season for Tomac in a limited race season, and the guys on the gate have it all to go for, without having to beat the most dominant guy.

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9/8/2020 7:42 AM

dboivin wrote:

2 dead bikes...and some of you were mad at him for tossing his bike down. now you know why he was so mad. nothing like starting out in a hole...and guys making comments on vitalmx every day about how hes lost it. lol.

take those 2 dead bikes and give him 2 5th place finishes....and hes right in the title hunt. he had a right to let his bike hit the ground...he was mad...people get mad once in while.

if ferrandis wins the title because of the knockdown of jeremy, gonna suck. was a shitty move on a points leader.

I don't automatically pin those issues on the bike 100% though. The rider on the bike can cause it to fail.

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9/8/2020 7:44 AM

dboivin wrote:

2 dead bikes...and some of you were mad at him for tossing his bike down. now you know why he was so mad. nothing like starting out in a hole...and guys making comments on vitalmx every day about how hes lost it. lol.

take those 2 dead bikes and give him 2 5th place finishes....and hes right in the title hunt. he had a right to let his bike hit the ground...he was mad...people get mad once in while.

if ferrandis wins the title because of the knockdown of jeremy, gonna suck. was a shitty move on a points leader.

I think had he finished 2-9 (which is where he was both moto's before the DNF's) he was still 20 pts down to Zach before yesterday. Not positive, but think he lost another 4 pts to Zach yesterday.

Better to be 24 pts down than whatever he is now, but either way I don't think he will get it done. I just wish Marv was a little more competitive because right now he seems to be the most likely to take it if Zach doesn't.

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9/8/2020 7:46 AM

dboivin wrote:

2 dead bikes...and some of you were mad at him for tossing his bike down. now you know why he was so mad. nothing like starting out in a hole...and guys making comments on vitalmx every day about how hes lost it. lol.

take those 2 dead bikes and give him 2 5th place finishes....and hes right in the title hunt. he had a right to let his bike hit the ground...he was mad...people get mad once in while.

if ferrandis wins the title because of the knockdown of jeremy, gonna suck. was a shitty move on a points leader.

mx 219 wrote:

I think had he finished 2-9 (which is where he was both moto's before the DNF's) he was still 20 pts down to Zach before yesterday. Not positive, but think he lost another 4 pts to Zach yesterday.

Better to be 24 pts down than whatever he is now, but either way I don't think he will get it done. I just wish Marv was a little more competitive because right now he seems to be the most likely to take it if Zach doesn't.

sure...20 pts...that he took a 14 pt chunk out of last weekend. smile

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9/8/2020 9:04 AM

KDXGarage wrote:

That plus being a babydaddy.

Yep x2.

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9/8/2020 9:52 AM

He's a new dad, 2020 racing schedule is a shit show, already chased the Supercross title monkey off his back.
DNF's at LL's put him too far back to give any f**ks on the rest of a shortened season in a series he's already won 3 times.
I bet he considered sitting it out. He has nothing to prove.

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9/8/2020 10:01 AM
Edited Date/Time: 9/8/2020 10:26 AM

dboivin wrote:

2 dead bikes...and some of you were mad at him for tossing his bike down. now you know why he was so mad. nothing like starting out in a hole...and guys making comments on vitalmx every day about how hes lost it. lol.

take those 2 dead bikes and give him 2 5th place finishes....and hes right in the title hunt. he had a right to let his bike hit the ground...he was mad...people get mad once in while.

if ferrandis wins the title because of the knockdown of jeremy, gonna suck. was a shitty move on a points leader.

Agree with some of what you say but he didn't have a 'right' to drop his bike and make his Dad pick it up.

The new baby plays a big role in this like others have said.

He is just not as strong as prior years. Yesterday proved that with him passing Sexton, catching Craig and then letting Chase go back by and falling off Craig with a few laps to go.

Not normal Eli end of the moto.

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9/8/2020 10:11 AM

He won a championship and is probably a little burnt out. New baby to add exhaustion. The, mechanical DNF's to start the season were surely deflating.

Since then I've seen tracks that are hard to pass on and he's been having really bad luck with lappers ruining his momentum. He got really screwed with a lapper while chasing AC and you could see he just sat on the seat and paused for a bit with frustration.

He's clearly not willing to hang it out in beast mode and risk injury when Zach has a sizable lead and the stars keep aligning for the #16.

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