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I am going for the overall win with Peter Sagan.
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I’ll do it...
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Ummm, Peter is a sprinter, he isn't a contender for the Grand Classification win. He's a contender for the green jersey though (the sprinter's points). His build isn't suitable for the mountains, he will be high up in the standings for the first week but as they enter the mountains, all the sprinters will drop through the standings massively.
Contenders for the yellow jersey (the overall lead) are riders like Chris Froome (Sky), Michael Landa (movistar), Richie Porte (BMC), Adam Yates (Scott), Romain Berdet (AG2R), Geraint Thomas (Sky), Rigo Uran (EF Education Cannondale), Tom Dumoulin (Sunweb), Vincenzo Nibali (Bahrain), Nairo Quintana (Movistar)
Sagan's team, Bora, doesn't really have a legit GC contender on their team. Sagan's goals for the year are to win in the one day classics (and he picked up a big win this year at one of them), get some stage wins at the Tour and hopefully the green jersey classification, and then win the one day world road race championship for the fourth year in a row. He will never compete for the yellow overall at Tour in his career.
Quick Step is another team you see high up in the standings the first week, and will plummet as the race goes on. Teams like Quick Step, Direct Energie, Lotto Soudal, Katusha, Bora, and Dimension Data are built for the one day classics and much shorter stage races, like 3-7 day events. During Grand Tours such as the Tour de France, the Vuelte de Espana, and Giro d'Italia...these teams chase stage wins, not overalls.
There are multiple points standings to chase at a grand tour.
For Tour de France they're as follows:
Yellow: Grand Classification - the lowest overall time. The riders that chase this are all-around good cyclists. Mostly trimmed down like a climber, but still with decent strength and good time trial skills. Some like Froome are more like a dedicated climber while riders like Armstrong and Nibali seem to be more rounded in terms of build.
Green: Sprinter category - this is a points based competition with sprints in the middle of the stage and points for your finishing position in a stage. This is what sprinters like Peter Sagan, Andre Griepel, Mark Cavendish, and others chase. They're big, powerful riders that put out big power but don't have the endurance and light builds to navigate the mountains quickly.
Polka Dot: Climbers/King of the Mountains category - also points based, a mix of climbers checkpoints in the middle of a stages (at the top of climbs) and overall finishing position add points to this classification. The difficulty of the climbs changes the points you are rewarded for cresting them first, second, or third. Smaller/very skinny riders with great endurance chase these.
White: Best Young Rider - Like the GC/Yellow, but for riders under 26 years old.
Lastly, there's a team competition. The team with the lowest combined time wins this one, if leading this category you'll see that team with yellow numbers on their jerseys and other yellow trim (such as helmets or shoes). They take the best three riders from a team to combine for this time.
As far as I'm aware, Eddie Meryxck in 1969 is the only rider to win the GC, climbers, and sprint in the same year. It's just not feasible anymore. If you're in green, there's no way you're winning the others. The only time to hold green and yellow at the same time is the opening few stages. I guess a GC guy could snag polka dot, but that would mean a lot of time on the front of the field, which just isn't common with the way they race these days.
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Johnny Depp wrote:ML512 knows way too much about this and F1, and probably anime.
How'd you know? Seriously, I loved Japanese anime when I was a kid...
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Cycling, F1, and Moto... it doesn't get any better in today's world. But for a TDF pic Sagan no, but Rafal Majka on Bora will take home polka dot and possibly wear yellow. Real GC pic, I'd say Porte this year.
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Johnny Depp wrote:ML512 knows way too much about this and F1, and probably anime.
Porte is gonna have a tough go, I feel like. He's already signed to leave for Trek and the BMC team is falling apart due to a lack of sponsors next year and the team might fold up completely. There's a lot of guys on that team that need a ride and there might be some rogue moments. Mentality-wise, why work for the guy who's already got a huge guaranteed payday when you're struggling to get a ride? Some might stay loyal but I could also see BMC riders putting their own best effort in for good stage results to secure a future.
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Personally, I'm thinking Tom Dumoulin or Chris Froome, and if Froome doesn't get back in the mix or has another bad stage...maybe the team will shift towards Geraint Thomas (who sits third right now in GC).
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Yo ML512! This was before your time, but there used to be a combination jersey. It went away in 1989, but thought I'd mention it if you didn't know about it.
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My thoughts....Dumoulin is too drained from a brutal Giro d’Italia to challenge for LeTour GC. Only Froome can possibly peak at both and that remains to be seen. Geraint Thomas will lose many minutes on the climbs and will not be a GC animator after Alpe d’Huez. If anyone is going to beat Froome it will be Vincenzo Nibali.
Let’s see how things look after all the cobbles on stage 9. If Nibali, a skilled cobbles racer, has a big gap on Froome then things could get interesting. If not then the Sky train will control the race and it will be boring as hell same as the US Postal years.
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Nighttrain wrote:My thoughts....Dumoulin is too drained from a brutal Giro d’Italia to challenge for LeTour GC. Only Froome can possibly peak ...more
I forgot about stage 9, but hasn't Nibali been a little flat so far this year? I can't recall seeing much of his season so far.
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Doesn't seem like Sagan is as big a threat for the Green as in the past. Gaviria is the main sprinter this year. Even Colbrelli was coming around Sagan on Stage 2 but was out of place and timed his attack poorly.
I still think Froome is the favorite. They pulled back time in the TTT today on every other GC contender minus Porte...and your take on BMC is spot on. Nibali lost time today and doesn't have the team Sky has.
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Yeah, and check out the book "Slaying the Badger" if you're interested in the battles between Hinault and Lemond.
It would be like having Eli Tomac and Marvin Musquin on the same team.
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He won the Classic, Milan-SanRemo, in the spring. It’s a single day race but 294 kilometers! I’m not sure how strong his team is which could be a problem if he gets in the yellow jersey too soon. Besides being good on the cobbles he can descend like a demon dog. Hopefully Valverde will have good legs and stays upright. That dude can launch blistering attacks that gets everyone rattled. He crashed out early last year.
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Nice , you definitely know your stuff. I am kind of new to road biking. I just got my road bike like 6 months ago, but I love the Tour de France - I watch it every year.
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Nighttrain wrote:My thoughts....Dumoulin is too drained from a brutal Giro d’Italia to challenge for LeTour GC. Only Froome can possibly peak ...more
I agree with Nighttrain, Dumoulin did the Giro, cannot see him challenge for the tour. The only one who could do that is Froome, since he is another level. And not to make this another doping thread but i also think Sky is the best prepared.
As for Nibali, i think it's good that you havnt seen much of him, he has been focusing on the tdf. But i think he is allready over the hill, still very good but not that good anymore.
It should be a lot of fun though, normally Froome would be topfavorite but with him having done the Giro it is wide open.
And the mountain stages are great to visit especially if you cycle yourself. You can climb the col in the morning and go to the top, and then wait for the riders and tour caravan to pass. Great atmosphere and also nice to combine a day of sporting, watching sports and drinking some wines/beers. Did it for years with a bunch of friends, climbed all the famous cols, nice memories.
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My money is still on Froome. The tour doesn’t start until we get to the mountains. Froome is as good there as the actual climbers are. No one else in the GC can ride the mountains as well as Froome.
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sagan doesn't even need to win a sprint finish to get the green jersey at the end of the tour. racers will get min. 2 points for 15th place on each of the hillier stages plus up to 20 points for intermediate sprints. THAT'S were sagan win his green jerseys. guys like kittel, greipel etc. are out and out sprinters and just trying to survive on hillier stages where sagan goes for intermediate sprints and sometimes still manages to finish to 15 or even top 10 (not talking about mountain stages here!). sagan usually has 100 plus points on 2nd place which is huge.
as for the winner I think froome but would love to see adam yates to win it.
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I've been watching the Tour for 20 years, I know how it works! Sagan doesn't look like he's in form. He even was dropped in the TTT...so as I said, don't see him winning Green this year.
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Well after the TTT it is definitely advantage Sky with Thomas and Froome. Porte also in good shape. And Bardet, but that final individual TT is a soul-crusher for him. But it's foolish to make any predictions until we've cleared stage 9 and the cobbles of Roubaix. As we saw in 2014, this can turn the race upside down. The TdF peloton is collectively not super-experienced on the stones, and there will be a lot of stress and chaos on that day. The only prediction I will make is that at least one, if not two pre-race GC possibility rider will see their chances eliminated by the cobbles. Sunday will be awesome.
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hamncheeze wrote:Well after the TTT it is definitely advantage Sky with Thomas and Froome. Porte also in good shape. And Bardet, but that final ...more
Valverde and Nibali have performed well on the cobbles. I agree that stage 9 will eliminate some GC contenders before the mountains even begin. I can’t see Quintana doing well and he’s already down due to the TTT and broken wheels at a bad time.
Sky needed the TTT to take back the time Froome lost in the stage 1 crash. Still, Froome usually has his way in the mountains and takes as many minutes from rivals as he feels he needs. Landa makes me curious. Last year he looked the equal to Froome on the climbs while riding for Sky. Maybe he took the Sky preparations with him to Movistar?
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are we talking about the same sagan that won the points jersey at tour de suisse, tour down under and the biggest and hardest one day race of the year paris roubaix?
don't get me wrong, I'd love to see gaviria making it difficult for sagan because nobody has since 2012 but I doubt it.
