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10/10/2017
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Valencia, CA
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Ricky is gone, Villo is gone, James is as good as gone, reed is on his way out, canard is gone, and now with Dungey out the obvious question remains. What’s next for ama racing? I know Eli is really quick as is Roczen. I haven’t followed the sport too closely lately but who do we have that’s really going to come up and be a superstar? Adam? At this point it seems unlikely. What do you guys think?
Transition to 450s is normally a similar 3 year transition. With most 450 SX titles coming in years 2 or 3. So expect Webb to take the step this year to race winner and title threat, while Marvin moves to a title threat in his 3rd 450 year.
This year is a transition year with Dungey retiring. And with Reed being the only remaining 450 Supercross champ in the field expected to race. So there will be a rush to fill that void. Eli may be the favorite on paper, but he doesn't have the invincibility that Villopto or Dungey had for the past 8 seasons. Or Stew/Reed/RC/MC had from 93-09.
In 2019 when a couple of the current top 250 guys move up to the 450s we might see a rapid shift like we saw in 2010 when everyone would have bet that Stewart and Reed were the title favorites after dominating 07,08,09. But the title came down to the rookie Dungey and 2nd year 450 Villopoto and besides a resurgence in 2011 Reed and Stewart have not been title threats since.
One of the biggest shifts in popularity/star power was the 1990 season. The rookies of Bradshaw, Chicken, Larry Ward, Kiedrowski, Larocco, JMB all came in ready to win, the vets were in transistion with Rick Johnson coming off his wrist injury and never regaining the speed he had, Jeff Ward a couple years removed from his 87 title and still a race winner and title threat, Johnny O'Mara close to retirement and Jeff Stanton the reigning champ all were threats for the title and race wins. That shift only lasted 3 seasons before McGrath showed up and dominated the next 7 of 8 seasons.
If they didn't change the 250 point out rule this year there would have been a couple new 250 guys moving up. Now we will have to wait until 2019/2020 for guys like Cianciarulo, Forkner, Savatgy, Hill, Plessinger, Nichols, Smith, Hampshire, Martin plus more Loretta's graduates to move up.
Hill & Pless could take the leap early, get one year of experience on a 450 before the next batch are forced to advance.
Herlings in GPs.
The Shop
There is still a Ken Roczen on the line that is the closest to a RC, RV, Dungey that we have in US racing at the moment(if he is able to ride to his ability).
Webb could become the "guy" if he is able to step up this off season and make it happen. But there is a huge problem if he is mediocre again in 2018.
SX is dominating the sport and along with that all the decision making and that's very unfortunate.
Nobody has been a champion at this age except MC at age of 29. Prime years are 22-27
He might get one 450 title if things goes his way but that doesn't make him the next multi-time champion like RV, RD etc.
But if he gets back to even 90%, he will be the next guy. He already has 2 450 titles and i can't see any other rider at the moment that can out race him for one season. I'm sorry but a relatively healthy Roczen has Tomac covered.
I'm hopeful that Roczen makes it happen and manages to get himself back to winning races and titles.
Pit Row
Webb admitted on the Pulp show that he underestimated the challenge of the class and the bike didn't suit him. That should be fixed for this season so it really is time for him to step up. Maybe not contend for a title but at least have multiple podiums and have better bad days.
All i'm saying is that just because Webb goes to KTM doesn't mean he automatically goes with the Bakers factory.
I'll be able to better judge AC after this next season. Not many people come out and win their first ever supercross race.
Most likely Tomac willd dominate this year.
in the last years, with a promotor in charge, the european side of mx has come back and has been growing faster and better then america, these days any race between both sides is an unknown affair, be it young guns or pros.....
i guess that a lot of the changes that youthstream has brought in, despite being much criticized, have done its job and now european riders have cut the gap to americans.....
so i think its time for ama and the other powers of american mx to really think about the reasons for americans to loose that advantage, for the field to loose its deepness, for the young kids that move in not be so hot and fast as they used to be, etc.....
the absence of a real series for young amatures, the absence of an age limit to move up, the production rule, the importance of super cross, the overworked track soils, etc......lots of things are done different in the states, are they better, are they worst ?????
i guess its time to put all on the table and rethink american mx racing......europe is beginning an era of success, lots of signs show that, so i think it time for americans to stop thinking only at the present moment and trying to find immediate solutions, and look for the main reasons for that change and what can be done to turn it around......
its not normal for an year of mx to start in usa and there is so little favorites for wins, and a few are european, so little young stars to hype the races......something has not been done right, something is missing.!!!!!!!
I believe that Roczen will continue to win titles if he stays healthy. I don't think that anyone beats him straight up.
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