The Rising Prices of New Dirt Bikes

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7/30/2016 11:18 AM
Edited Date/Time: 7/30/2016 11:20 AM

Hey Vitards,

People in this sport often talk about how high the prices of new bikes have become since the advent of the 4 stroke. Recently, guys like David Pingree on his RacerX column and JT on one of Matthes' podcasts have used the price of new bikes to make a point about the health of the sport. It seems that everybody has an opinion on this but nobody really has the data. So I found it.

[LINK TO IMAGE]
*KTM omitted due to small market share in 2000

So, when adjusted for the value of a US dollar, the price of a modern 4 stroke motocross bike is $729.40 higher than an equivalent 2000 2 stroke. That's an increase of 9% over inflation in today's dollars.

Now, this is just for new bike prices because that was the specific argument that was made. Another consideration is indeed the maintenance requirements, which may be higher on 4 strokes. The issue is that gathering accurate data for 15 year historical maintenance costs is very difficult. Accurately accounting for how often the bike needed work, how much the parts cost and what the true cost of repairs were is nearly impossible.

If you see any errors in these data, please point them out and provide a correction. I would really like to update this with the price of boots, helmets and gear so if you have historical catalog prices, please let me know.

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7/30/2016 11:24 AM

You got Y2K YZ450F v 2016 YZ450F?

aka Apples to Apples

I'm jus' sayin'...

(From someone thats done the whole "white paper" thing)

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I ripped a start from Egypt and I was happy about that.

7/30/2016 11:30 AM

Interesting. Nice info!

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"Who cares about what other people think"

7/30/2016 11:44 AM

What about average income? Minimum wage? I bet we'll see a much bigger difference when you factor those in.

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7/30/2016 11:46 AM

TeamGreen wrote:

You got Y2K YZ450F v 2016 YZ450F?

aka Apples to Apples

I'm jus' sayin'...

(From someone thats done the whole "white paper" thing)

If you mean the YZ426f then yes, I considered it but felt I would have to add in the CR500 and KX500 if I had done so.

But a 2001 YZ426f was $5899. $175 year 2000 dollars more than average ($245 2016 dollars). $5899 is $8258.60 in 2016 Prices, so $450.4 dollars less than today's average (or 5.17% less).

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7/30/2016 11:55 AM

colintrax wrote:

What about average income? Minimum wage? I bet we'll see a much bigger difference when you factor those in.

You'd need data about the income of an average dirt bike buyer in 2000 and 2016 to accurately represent that. It may support your suggestion, but it'd be difficult to control for variables such as whether an average dirt bike buyer is above, below, or equal with average US wage. I'd think you'd have a mix of upper income and lower income but not many in the average.

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7/30/2016 11:57 AM

TeamGreen wrote:

You got Y2K YZ450F v 2016 YZ450F?

aka Apples to Apples

I'm jus' sayin'...

(From someone thats done the whole "white paper" thing)

TheGetFresh wrote:

If you mean the YZ426f then yes, I considered it but felt I would have to add in the CR500 and KX500 if I had done so.

But a 2001 YZ426f was $5899. $175 year 2000 dollars more than average ($245 2016 dollars). $5899 is $8258.60 in 2016 Prices, so $450.4 dollars less than today's average (or 5.17% less).

instead of looking at the difference of 2 to 4 ts you should compare the bike to when it was intro'd. 2004 crf250 vs 2016 crf. compare the same model as there has always been a bit higher price for a 4t

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"If you feel in control, you're not going fast enough" ~Mario Andretti

7/30/2016 12:01 PM

colintrax wrote:

What about average income? Minimum wage? I bet we'll see a much bigger difference when you factor those in.

TheGetFresh wrote:

You'd need data about the income of an average dirt bike buyer in 2000 and 2016 to accurately represent that. It may support your suggestion, but it'd be difficult to control for variables such as whether an average dirt bike buyer is above, below, or equal with average US wage. I'd think you'd have a mix of upper income and lower income but not many in the average.

The problem with that is if incomes are lowering across the board, and bike prices are raising. Then the average dirt bike buyer will be wealthier.

I think an average of Americans, not just motorcyclists would give more insight.

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7/30/2016 12:23 PM

Well being that bikes are better than they were in 2000 i think the increase is worth it. Compare bikes to cars. Im guessing cars raised more in average price. I was looking at new trucks. 70k for a 3/4 ton. Everyone still drives. Our economy is in the shitter and people just have other stuff to do. Parents raise little pussy crybaby kids in many cases now that would never be allowed to do something that could hurt them. You can buy used bikes pretty cheap as you can cars so i dont think bike price increase is the deciding factor.

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7/30/2016 12:41 PM

Good info thanks! I have no issue with companies making money. I only have an issue with they pay off the people who make the rules to favor their marketing plans!

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7/30/2016 1:11 PM

I think track/open riding areas are more to blame than bike prices, look at how many tracks/riding areas have closed in the last 10 years. If you have to drive 2 hours each way to ride, that's going to play a major part in the buying process. In Arkansas I only know of 2 tracks that runs races monthly and maybe 5 others that runs a couple times a year.

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7/30/2016 1:14 PM

The way I see it dirt bikes are cheaper today. In 1976 a 16yr old could get a 24hr a week part time job at about $2.35 hr. at the beginning of the school year and buy a brand new YZ125 by spring time. Today same 16yr. old can get 24hr a week job at about $9 hr. and buy a 2016 YZ125 by spring time. The big difference is the 2016 bike is way better and more reliable. Adjusting for inflation the 2016 bike is a way better deal.

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7/30/2016 1:22 PM

TeamGreen wrote:

You got Y2K YZ450F v 2016 YZ450F?

aka Apples to Apples

I'm jus' sayin'...

(From someone thats done the whole "white paper" thing)

TheGetFresh wrote:

If you mean the YZ426f then yes, I considered it but felt I would have to add in the CR500 and KX500 if I had done so.

But a 2001 YZ426f was $5899. $175 year 2000 dollars more than average ($245 2016 dollars). $5899 is $8258.60 in 2016 Prices, so $450.4 dollars less than today's average (or 5.17% less).

Boom!

Nice work, my friend.

I believe that "all things being equal", the '00 426 v '16 450 is the fair comparison; furthermore, amortization of true R&D for the earlier 4Ts had to be Astronomic!

This is the kind of data needed for a true "state of the sport" discussion.

I know, from experience, that there's gonna be A LOT of Negative-Nancy in the discussion; however, after riding many well prepared bikes over the last ten years (from PC to Factory Services) I've seen 1st hand that the average guy has better bikes available than he did "back in the day".

Next, people are going to chime in on how much everything costs. Well, those folks seem to forget that the really good things were not only expensive; but, we're VERY unobtainable...too. Bikes came with disposable shocks (my 1980 CR comes to mind) and Ohlins were pretty damn expensive! And that's when you could actually get them!

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I ripped a start from Egypt and I was happy about that.

7/30/2016 1:25 PM
Edited Date/Time: 7/30/2016 1:30 PM

colintrax wrote:

What about average income? Minimum wage? I bet we'll see a much bigger difference when you factor those in.

TheGetFresh wrote:

You'd need data about the income of an average dirt bike buyer in 2000 and 2016 to accurately represent that. It may support your suggestion, but it'd be difficult to control for variables such as whether an average dirt bike buyer is above, below, or equal with average US wage. I'd think you'd have a mix of upper income and lower income but not many in the average.

colintrax wrote:

The problem with that is if incomes are lowering across the board, and bike prices are raising. Then the average dirt bike buyer will be wealthier.

I think an average of Americans, not just motorcyclists would give more insight.

True; yet, "Non-Moto"!

Bwahahahahaha

You're talking Economics and you JUST KNOW someone's gonna make that "political".

Yes, I'm a smart ass devil

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I ripped a start from Egypt and I was happy about that.

7/30/2016 1:32 PM
Edited Date/Time: 7/30/2016 1:51 PM

The system is rigged and all the motorcycle OEM's are laughing at us.

The car guys got them all beat. In 65 you could buy a Shelby Cobra for around $7000. Now they go for over a million.

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7/30/2016 1:38 PM

A brand new 450 will last you much longer than a new 250s-stroke. Regular oil and filter changes that 450 should last you a few years. Intermediate speed or faster that 250 is going to go through multiple top ends. I think it's more bang for your buck now a days.

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7/30/2016 2:12 PM

TeamGreen wrote:

True; yet, "Non-Moto"!

Bwahahahahaha

You're talking Economics and you JUST KNOW someone's gonna make that "political".

Yes, I'm a smart ass devil

I'd be ok with bringing politics in this, I think most Moto guys vote for the party that hurts the Moto/offroad community.

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7/30/2016 2:22 PM

Been riding since the 80s and have never seen so many new bikes at the start of each season. It used to be a rare sight to see a new bike at the local practise track, now it's unusual to see one more than a year or two old.

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7/30/2016 2:41 PM

Have you checked the prices on a new truck lately ?

I bought a brand new '05 Dodge diesel SLT Laramie 2wd that was fully loaded in '05 for $32K
That same truck is now $60K

If you consider this, the price increase n dirt bikes isn't all that bad....

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7/30/2016 2:52 PM

colintrax wrote:

The problem with that is if incomes are lowering across the board, and bike prices are raising. Then the average dirt bike buyer will be wealthier.

I think an average of Americans, not just motorcyclists would give more insight.

TeamGreen wrote:

True; yet, "Non-Moto"!

Bwahahahahaha

You're talking Economics and you JUST KNOW someone's gonna make that "political".

Yes, I'm a smart ass devil

colintrax wrote:

I'd be ok with bringing politics in this, I think most Moto guys vote for the party that hurts the Moto/offroad community.

Ok, now, stay still...

Don't move!

Let me get the steel-plate and slide it under your foot...when I say, "Lift", very gentley pick your foot up...

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I ripped a start from Egypt and I was happy about that.

7/30/2016 3:01 PM
Edited Date/Time: 7/30/2016 3:04 PM

TeamGreen wrote:

Ok, now, stay still...

Don't move!

Let me get the steel-plate and slide it under your foot...when I say, "Lift", very gentley pick your foot up...

grin
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7/30/2016 3:04 PM



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7/30/2016 3:05 PM

As far as maintenance requirements go, according to mxa, Mitch Paytens budget for the pc team was four times higher after the switch to four strokes.
That may not be a direct comparison to a weekend warrior but it shows the difference for a team who was getting the most out of a two stroke and then moved to getting the most out of a four stroke

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7/30/2016 3:37 PM

chump6784 wrote:

As far as maintenance requirements go, according to mxa, Mitch Paytens budget for the pc team was four times higher after the switch to four strokes.
That may not be a direct comparison to a weekend warrior but it shows the difference for a team who was getting the most out of a two stroke and then moved to getting the most out of a four stroke

That cost likely doesn't take into account the amortization of adoption costs. I'd have to have mitch explain it to me to know exactly what he meant by that, but I highly doubt the costs today are 4x higher compared to when they switched.

Think of it this way, if you had a business that did expedited deliveris and you had a fleet of 20 gas engines delivery vehicles and in a given year switched to an entirely diesel fleet, your costs of service for that first year would likely be very high because you'd have to buy new parts and retrain your mechanics. However they would come down over the following years--perhaps even to levels lower than your prebio us levels. If you spread out (amortize) your initial adopton costs, you get a better idea of what it actually increased or decreased you maintenance costs by.

Also, others mentioned the rising costs of pickup trucks. I really tried to incorporate those prices into this, but finding the historical prices of new trucks was much more difficult then finding historical didn't bike prices, to my surprise. The fact that trucks have a variety of upgrade options further complicates that. An F150 may start at $24,000 or whatever, but the average price of delivered models is likely in the mid 30s

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7/30/2016 3:55 PM

motokawi818 wrote:

A brand new 450 will last you much longer than a new 250s-stroke. Regular oil and filter changes that 450 should last you a few years. Intermediate speed or faster that 250 is going to go through multiple top ends. I think it's more bang for your buck now a days.

Untill you go to re-sell it in 4 years and it's worth 1/2 of what you paid LOL

I get that the 2 stroke circlejerk can get annoying, but what you said is insane. Given average joe's knowledge and maintenance, a 2016 yz450f will not outlast a 2016 yz250; not to mention the yz will be worth more 5 years down the line.

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If it can't be fixed with a hammer, it's an electrical problem.

7/30/2016 4:02 PM

It sure is easyer making payments when you make 32$ per hr rather than 13$ per hr

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7/30/2016 4:32 PM

No consideration given to the huge rise in housing costs since 2000? Other costs? How long it would take an average American to save up 9k for a new bike?

Close, but no cigar...

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www.bettercallsaul.com
Die Antwoord

7/30/2016 4:38 PM

langhammx wrote:

Have you checked the prices on a new truck lately ?

I bought a brand new '05 Dodge diesel SLT Laramie 2wd that was fully loaded in '05 for $32K
That same truck is now $60K

If you consider this, the price increase n dirt bikes isn't all that bad....

I have 2 BICYCLES that are $10K each. Things are just expensive. As long as we are willing to pay it, they will charge it! look at GAS it was over $4 a gal. and we still bought it. I read that in 5 years their will be trucks @ $100K.

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Better to remain silent and thought a fool, then to open your mouth and remove all doubt.

7/30/2016 4:59 PM

The high bike costs would be a little easier to swallow if there were cheaper alternatives, IE 100 cc and up two strokes with acceptable MX suspension for half the price and more appeal to beginners and whatnot. I don't actually even like two strokes that much but I would like my sport/obsession to be around and healthy for a long time.
However, it's impossible to complain much about bike prices and difficulty of getting new riders involved when most young guys are spending 4 to 7 times as much money on ostentatious vehicles they cannot afford and similar garbage, THEN complain that they cannot afford sports like MX or a decent mountain bike or whatever. 99% of young men my age that I know with a decent job fit this exact description. The stuff that causes those types of massively stupid spending habits cannot be fixed within our industry.

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7/30/2016 5:04 PM

langhammx wrote:

Have you checked the prices on a new truck lately ?

I bought a brand new '05 Dodge diesel SLT Laramie 2wd that was fully loaded in '05 for $32K
That same truck is now $60K

If you consider this, the price increase n dirt bikes isn't all that bad....

MX Dad #27 wrote:

I have 2 BICYCLES that are $10K each. Things are just expensive. As long as we are willing to pay it, they will charge it! look at GAS it was over $4 a gal. and we still bought it. I read that in 5 years their will be trucks @ $100K.

I guarantee you there are a lot more trucks out there costing the buyers upwards of 70 and close to 80 thousand than you would believe. You'd be shocked. It honestly doesn't take much. The truck costs between 50 and 60 if not more, roll over some negative equity and have not great credit, financed for 72 to 84 months, and you're easily getting into 70/80k range. There's more of that out there than you would believe.

Source: I'm a former slimy car salesman

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