Strategy for 450 Final Race

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6/18/2020 9:45 AM
Edited Date/Time: 6/18/2020 9:46 AM

Hypothetical question. What is the reaction if KTM tries a roller derby type strategy? Davalos, Baggett, and Bloss form a moving block, while letting Webb be the jammer? Opinions on Vital are definitely split over the Tomac / Dungey LV final. No matter the opinion (from total BS to anything goes for the title), a precedent has been set; turnabout is fair play, etc, etc. Given that history, nobody (including Eli) has a legitimate reason to complain if KTM tries an aggressive strategy. FWIW, I hope Tomac wins the title. But, this should be interesting.

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6/18/2020 9:48 AM

TheNewOriginal wrote:

Hypothetical question. What is the reaction if KTM tries a roller derby type strategy? Davalos, Baggett, and Bloss form a moving block, while letting Webb be the jammer? Opinions on Vital are definitely split over the Tomac / Dungey LV final. No matter the opinion (from total BS to anything goes for the title), a precedent has been set; turnabout is fair play, etc, etc. Given that history, nobody (including Eli) has a legitimate reason to complain if KTM tries an aggressive strategy. FWIW, I hope Tomac wins the title. But, this should be interesting.

It is a 22 point deficit with Eli owning the tiebreaker. There are no team tactics that can overcome that, unless it is literally: "Sweep the leg".

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6/18/2020 9:49 AM

Tomac only needs 4 points, He will get them and there is no guarantee Web will win , if Web doesn't win Tomac will only need 1 point, basically if Tomac makes the Main He will win it.

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6/18/2020 9:51 AM

TheNewOriginal wrote:

Hypothetical question. What is the reaction if KTM tries a roller derby type strategy? Davalos, Baggett, and Bloss form a moving block, while letting Webb be the jammer? Opinions on Vital are definitely split over the Tomac / Dungey LV final. No matter the opinion (from total BS to anything goes for the title), a precedent has been set; turnabout is fair play, etc, etc. Given that history, nobody (including Eli) has a legitimate reason to complain if KTM tries an aggressive strategy. FWIW, I hope Tomac wins the title. But, this should be interesting.

Man, you nailed it. I"m so excited to see how this plays out. Add lappers into the chaos late in the race, and if there's a bad start, are there orders via KTM for a punt move on Eli?... Either way, the race last night was great and these championship contenders are doing stuff on a SX that blows my mind....aaaand this season finished better then we probably all expected given the covid situation. LETS GOOOOOOOO!

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6/18/2020 9:51 AM

Gate drops, Eli sits at the gate for 3 or 4 seconds to avoid the crowd, catch and pass the last few riders in the pack and then cruise around.

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6/18/2020 9:56 AM

There can only be one strategy. Get a good start, and don't crash. It's brilliant when you think about it.

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step derp, step step derp - my signature dance move

6/18/2020 9:59 AM

That one DNF really hurt Webb, but it made for an exciting points chase.

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2018 KTM 250sx
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6/18/2020 10:00 AM

It's pretty much impossible, no matter how far Webb is willing to go.
He would have to hit him hard enough for Tomac to be unable to get back to the race (injury or technical issue). And at the same time Webb can't lose a lot of time because he has to win the race and not only take Tomac out.

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6/18/2020 10:01 AM

Am I the only one that just wants to see Eli stamp it and just go out there and win because let's face there's pretty much zero chance Eli crashes out or has a mechanical, and Webb winning from that just wouldn't feel right.

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6/18/2020 10:02 AM

AJ565 wrote:

That one DNF really hurt Webb, but it made for an exciting points chase.

Webb finished 12th (as many have pointed out before). He did not DNF.

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6/18/2020 10:03 AM

How about this.. 3 DNFs in the main secure the title for Tomac. What if Kawi has AC qualify for the main and pull off first lap.

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6/18/2020 10:05 AM

Markturbo wrote:

Gate drops, Eli sits at the gate for 3 or 4 seconds to avoid the crowd, catch and pass the last few riders in the pack and then cruise around.

Not going to happen.

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6/18/2020 10:10 AM

pressure is on Webb. He HAS to win to have a remote chance. Tomac can chill and cruise straight to the championship

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6/18/2020 10:10 AM

ET - ride fast, be safe, win title
CW- ride fast, hold 2nd
KR- ride fast, go for second

A take out move from Webb would require something vicious enough to end Tomac’s night. I doubt that happens.

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6/18/2020 10:12 AM

">lol
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6/18/2020 10:16 AM

toroP wrote:

ET - ride fast, be safe, win title
CW- ride fast, hold 2nd
KR- ride fast, go for second

A take out move from Webb would require something vicious enough to end Tomac’s night. I doubt that happens.

Good point. If Webb decides to play games he risks to lose second to Roczen.

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6/18/2020 10:16 AM

crusty_xx wrote:

It's pretty much impossible, no matter how far Webb is willing to go.
He would have to hit him hard enough for Tomac to be unable to get back to the race (injury or technical issue). And at the same time Webb can't lose a lot of time because he has to win the race and not only take Tomac out.

Is there any level of contact that AMA would penalize a rider and award Tomac a championship? Hypothetically if Blake Baggett was to smash into Tomac and have him go flying (like Ferrandis vs. Craig) and knock Tomac out of the race, would AMA step in and just award Tomac the 4 points he needs?

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6/18/2020 10:18 AM

This is all assuming Tomac "makes" the final...

Tomac fans are all...

Photo

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6/18/2020 10:20 AM

Well considering the 20-22 positions are usually 2 laps down and the next 10 are 1 lap as long as Eli stays on the lead lap he is fine. He could blow out a wheel and still win this.

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6/18/2020 10:20 AM

crusty_xx wrote:

It's pretty much impossible, no matter how far Webb is willing to go.
He would have to hit him hard enough for Tomac to be unable to get back to the race (injury or technical issue). And at the same time Webb can't lose a lot of time because he has to win the race and not only take Tomac out.

RichieW13 wrote:

Is there any level of contact that AMA would penalize a rider and award Tomac a championship? Hypothetically if Blake Baggett was to smash into Tomac and have him go flying (like Ferrandis vs. Craig) and knock Tomac out of the race, would AMA step in and just award Tomac the 4 points he needs?

And, more importantly, is the AMA prepared to award Tomac the points if Jeff Gillooly pops in and kneecaps him?

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6/18/2020 10:22 AM

Spudinki45 wrote:

Am I the only one that just wants to see Eli stamp it and just go out there and win because let's face there's pretty much zero chance Eli crashes out or has a mechanical, and Webb winning from that just wouldn't feel right.

Not a Tomac fan, but that would seem right. Hole shot, check out, title.

The only hope for drama is ugly scenarios I don’t care to see.

Maybe this would be ok, ET injured in heat, battles through LCQ, Webb takes himself and Roczen out in the main, Eli, last lap pass on Anderson, ET wins, celebrates on crutches.

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6/18/2020 10:30 AM
Edited Date/Time: 6/18/2020 10:30 AM

Webb/KR/Osborne take the win.
Tomac cruises to a safe 2nd-8th.
Champagne is popped, but nobody cheers because the place empty.
Teams lick their financial wounds after the most unfortunate season in history.
Everyone goes home and preps for outdoors.

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6/18/2020 10:33 AM
Edited Date/Time: 6/18/2020 10:34 AM

Tomac will take it I think, but let’s not forget what happened to AC last year. I know it’s AC, but Tomac had his moments when it counts too. I do think Tomac has overcome all that so that’s why he is finally a well deserved Champ.

I am actually more excited to see the 250 showdown and how team tactics will come into play. Two Star Yamaha’s going for the tittle, one Geico Honda and one PC Kawi. Recipe for a crazy final.

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6/18/2020 10:42 AM

Hopefully it will be as exciting to watch as last nights was! That was some good, clean racing and a blast to watch. There is probably no way it ever becomes a "thing", but i am a huge fan of Wed. night races! Was never really a Web fan, but man - his riding has been on point lately. With Eli and Kenny most likely being done after the next couple years, if Webb stays at it, he will have a couple championships before we walks away i think.

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6/18/2020 10:46 AM

I think Zacho holeshots, Webb gets into 2nd and stays there letting Osborne take his first win and Tomac cruises it in around 5th to clinch the title.

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Old MXer turned Superfan.

6/18/2020 10:47 AM

I don’t see Eli finishing any higher than 4th he will mail it in and finally get that number 1 plate

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6/18/2020 10:49 AM

Motocrossjunky wrote:

Tomac will take it I think, but let’s not forget what happened to AC last year. I know it’s AC, but Tomac had his moments when it counts too. I do think Tomac has overcome all that so that’s why he is finally a well deserved Champ.

I am actually more excited to see the 250 showdown and how team tactics will come into play. Two Star Yamaha’s going for the tittle, one Geico Honda and one PC Kawi. Recipe for a crazy final.

What was the point difference between AC and Ferrandis? Didn't he have to finish something like 10th or better?
Tomac is in a much safer position, but as said anything is possible.
Rooting for him!

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6/18/2020 10:51 AM

The person feeling the most pressure Sunday will be Tomac's mechanic. Forget team tactics, lappers, etc. a bike malfunction resulting in a DNF is pretty much the only way he loses this.

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6/18/2020 10:55 AM

RichieW13 wrote:

Is there any level of contact that AMA would penalize a rider and award Tomac a championship? Hypothetically if Blake Baggett was to smash into Tomac and have him go flying (like Ferrandis vs. Craig) and knock Tomac out of the race, would AMA step in and just award Tomac the 4 points he needs?

The rulebook couldn't do anything except penalize Bagget.
However, do you really think Decoster would be ok winning a title by intentionally putting the competitor in the cheap seats? That would be a black mark KTM would never get over

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6/18/2020 10:59 AM

toroP wrote:

ET - ride fast, be safe, win title
CW- ride fast, hold 2nd
KR- ride fast, go for second

A take out move from Webb would require something vicious enough to end Tomac’s night. I doubt that happens.

crusty_xx wrote:

Good point. If Webb decides to play games he risks to lose second to Roczen.

If Webb can't win the title then i don't think he cares about finishing second. If he can take a shot at Eli, he'll take it 100%.

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