So Eli has 37 SX wins…

Johnny Ringo
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Johnny Ringo
Edited Date/Time 5/3/2022 5:38am
What do you guys think the odds are he passes RV (41), Chad (44), or RC (48) by the time he calls it a career?

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Falcon
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Falcon 11/15/2021 11:50am
11/15/2021 11:50am
Slim. I think Webb, Roczen and Ferrandis are going to steal a lot of his opportunities. Maybe I'll eat my words once we see him on a Yamaha, but I don't know.
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-MAVERICK-
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-MAVERICK- 11/15/2021 11:57am
11/15/2021 11:57am
He's got a 1 year deal with an option for a 2nd year if he chooses to continue racing.

So, I guess it depends on how well he adapts to the Yamaha and then adapts to a new bike once again for 2023?

I don't think he'll surpass Carmichael.

ET: 1 title
CR: 2 titles
RV: 4 titles
RC: 5 titles
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nrosso391
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nrosso391 11/15/2021 11:59am
11/15/2021 11:59am
Yes.
He'll match Chad @ 44 wins by the end of '22 season. I think he can win the title back with 7-8 wins this coming season.

Depends how he adapts to the Yamaha of course. Tomac said he had faster lap times on a Moto track first time out... But I've been hearing rumors he's faster on a SX track as well. So, we won't truly know for another 2 months.
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yz133rider
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yz133rider 11/15/2021 12:03pm
11/15/2021 12:03pm
Would be pretty hard to imagine he doesn’t get 4 more. 8 or 11 is within reach. I think he ties Chad at 44 before he’s down.
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devindavisphoto
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devindavisphoto 11/15/2021 12:04pm
11/15/2021 12:04pm
I think Eli can realistically hit 50 SX wins before he retires, depending on how good he looks on blue, of course.
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deanwhite51
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deanwhite51 11/15/2021 12:48pm
11/15/2021 12:48pm
Cant see him winning any more racers than he did last year in SX...


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twotwosix
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twotwosix 11/15/2021 12:48pm
11/15/2021 12:48pm
Johnny Ringo wrote:
What do you guys think the odds are he passes RV (41), Chad (44), or RC (48) by the time he calls it a career?

I'd say he will pass up RV and CR next year. I see 8 wins coming on that new Star bike.
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Mavetism
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Mavetism 11/15/2021 1:03pm
11/15/2021 1:03pm
twotwosix wrote:
I'd say he will pass up RV and CR next year. I see 8 wins coming on that new Star bike.
Damn 8 wins against Webb and Kenny? That's confident. Gonna be a banger season anyway. Gonna be interesting to see if anyone else can join the top 3. Star Yamaha team will definitely be the most interesting team to watch in SX.
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Zachintosh
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Zachintosh 11/15/2021 1:06pm
11/15/2021 1:06pm
If his starts are markedly better on the blue machine, he is certainly capable of racking up a significant amount of wins. But, that’s a pretty big “if”.
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Doogan551
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Doogan551 11/15/2021 1:07pm
11/15/2021 1:07pm
I say 3-4 SX wins for ET3 in the upcoming season.................. (stamp it)
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nrosso391
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nrosso391 11/15/2021 1:49pm
11/15/2021 1:49pm
Tomac averages 6 wins per year... do the math guys.
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BobPA
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BobPA 11/15/2021 2:07pm
11/15/2021 2:07pm
Um, by my math he won three (3) last year.....So there is that.

I bet he ties or beats RV this year. It would be a tall order for him to surpass Reed, but not impossible.

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deanwhite51
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deanwhite51 11/15/2021 2:15pm
11/15/2021 2:15pm
nrosso391 wrote:
Tomac averages 6 wins per year... do the math guys.
Does last years racing go into account..?
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Thisusernameisavailable 11/15/2021 2:23pm
11/15/2021 2:23pm
2015 x 3 wins
2016 x 1
2017 x 9
2018 x 8
2019 x 6
2020 x 7
2021 x 3

That’s a mean average of 5.3 wins per year.

If we drop his BIGGEST win score (2017) and his SMALLEST win score (2016) his mean average increases slightly to 5.4.

Its fair to expect Eli to score at least 5 wins next year.
I reckon he was ‘done’ with Kawi this year. And so he’ll bring fresh motivation and energy in to ‘22. But… it’s also fair to say his best days are behind him, so scoring a year of 9, 8 or 7 wins is a big ask.
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agn5008
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agn5008 11/15/2021 2:31pm
11/15/2021 2:31pm
I think he passes RV but doesn’t catch Chad this year. If he doesn’t retire after this year then maybe he will catch chad.
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Thisusernameisavailable 11/15/2021 2:36pm
11/15/2021 2:36pm
Does 5 wins win the championship is the big question..

21- Webb 8 wins
20- Tomac 7 wins
19- Webb 7 wins
18- Anderson 4 wins
17- Dungey 3 wins
16- Dungey 9 wins
15- Dungey 8 wins
14- Villo 7 wins
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Thisusernameisavailable 11/15/2021 2:43pm
11/15/2021 2:43pm
Thisusernameisavailable wrote:
Does 5 wins win the championship is the big question.. 21- Webb 8 wins 20- Tomac 7 wins 19- Webb 7 wins 18- Anderson 4 wins...
Does 5 wins win the championship is the big question..

21- Webb 8 wins
20- Tomac 7 wins
19- Webb 7 wins
18- Anderson 4 wins
17- Dungey 3 wins
16- Dungey 9 wins
15- Dungey 8 wins
14- Villo 7 wins
On average it takes 6.6 (7) wins to win the championship.

Again if we drop the biggest result and the smallest result, the mean average increases ever so slightly to 6.8 (still 7) wins to win the championship.
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JazzyJJ
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JazzyJJ 11/15/2021 3:05pm
11/15/2021 3:05pm
I say take the amount of wins he has by the superbowl and double it as a season total. If he gets off to a hot start and his head is in it all series long, he can go on a tear. If he starts poorly he'll be thinking about retirement and making more babies.
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deanwhite51
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deanwhite51 11/15/2021 3:10pm
11/15/2021 3:10pm
Craziest part is Eli is known for having incredible speed and winning.
Yet Reed still has more wins and come through the era of RC4 & JS7 and was winning races all the way up to the Ryan's era.
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spimx
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spimx 11/15/2021 3:41pm
11/15/2021 3:41pm
Love me some Tomac but he getting older.
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Johnny Ringo
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Johnny Ringo 11/15/2021 3:53pm
11/15/2021 3:53pm
deanwhite51 wrote:
Craziest part is Eli is known for having incredible speed and winning. Yet Reed still has more wins and come through the era of RC4 &...
Craziest part is Eli is known for having incredible speed and winning.
Yet Reed still has more wins and come through the era of RC4 & JS7 and was winning races all the way up to the Ryan's era.
Chad even won a race after RV was done
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Alex814
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Alex814 11/15/2021 4:00pm
11/15/2021 4:00pm
Thisusernameisavailable wrote:
2015 x 3 wins 2016 x 1 2017 x 9 2018 x 8 2019 x 6 2020 x 7 2021 x 3 That’s a mean average...
2015 x 3 wins
2016 x 1
2017 x 9
2018 x 8
2019 x 6
2020 x 7
2021 x 3

That’s a mean average of 5.3 wins per year.

If we drop his BIGGEST win score (2017) and his SMALLEST win score (2016) his mean average increases slightly to 5.4.

Its fair to expect Eli to score at least 5 wins next year.
I reckon he was ‘done’ with Kawi this year. And so he’ll bring fresh motivation and energy in to ‘22. But… it’s also fair to say his best days are behind him, so scoring a year of 9, 8 or 7 wins is a big ask.
2014 x 0 wins
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Adam43
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Adam43 11/15/2021 4:03pm
11/15/2021 4:03pm
Actually, I think he has a reasonable chance of passing them all.

It will depend on how the Yam deal goes. If there are some early wins and the vibes are good, I can see him sticking in there for a long time.

Lots of folks have had Eli on the brink of retirement for years, but I don't think he has ever looked at it that way.
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Kelz87
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Kelz87 11/15/2021 4:34pm
11/15/2021 4:34pm Edited Date/Time 11/16/2021 8:37am
I think he’ll at least match RV’s wins.

He should’ve matched his titles too, but it wasn’t in the cards I guess. The bad nights really cost him
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Forty
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Forty 11/15/2021 6:56pm
11/15/2021 6:56pm
He will never win another SX, but he will win the outdoors.
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fullfloater
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fullfloater 11/15/2021 11:46pm
11/15/2021 11:46pm Edited Date/Time 11/16/2021 1:39am
Forty wrote:
He will never win another SX, but he will win the outdoors.
That sounds like a bet. I'm in for $50 if he wins a SX. I'll pay $50 if he retires without another SX win.
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blockhead17 11/16/2021 1:29am
11/16/2021 1:29am
twotwosix wrote:
I'd say he will pass up RV and CR next year. I see 8 wins coming on that new Star bike.
Not a stab at you, but the general perception;
I love how the Yamaha went from being a fat blue pig, to the best bike within a year..
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Sandusky26
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Sandusky26 11/16/2021 1:55am
11/16/2021 1:55am Edited Date/Time 11/16/2021 1:56am
twotwosix wrote:
I'd say he will pass up RV and CR next year. I see 8 wins coming on that new Star bike.
blockhead17 wrote:
Not a stab at you, but the general perception; I love how the Yamaha went from being a fat blue pig, to the best bike within...
Not a stab at you, but the general perception;
I love how the Yamaha went from being a fat blue pig, to the best bike within a year..
Me too. Goes to show you that winning on Sunday still sells on Monday.

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Thisusernameisavailable 11/16/2021 2:08am
11/16/2021 2:08am
twotwosix wrote:
I'd say he will pass up RV and CR next year. I see 8 wins coming on that new Star bike.
blockhead17 wrote:
Not a stab at you, but the general perception; I love how the Yamaha went from being a fat blue pig, to the best bike within...
Not a stab at you, but the general perception;
I love how the Yamaha went from being a fat blue pig, to the best bike within a year..
Sandusky26 wrote:
Me too. Goes to show you that winning on Sunday still sells on Monday.

Or maybe it goes to show that there WAS actually a problem under that factory Yamaha tent..
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