Rider statistics season to season

28hall
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28hall
Curious what people’s thoughts are on comparing statistics from the same rider year to year and how much relevance there is to it? I’m genuinely on the fence about the importance but the two riders I dug into have very surprising results when calculating 2020 results to this year.
*Note I only went off racer x results page with a pen and paper

2021 Ken Roczen 2nd overall 353 points
4 wins 6 podiums 4 races out of the top 5
Average finish 3.58

2020 Ken Roczen 3rd overall 354 points
4 wins 6 podiums 4 races out of the top 5
Average finish 3.64
This year was the closest Ken has been to winning however he actually scored less total points then last year and the results were very very similar.

The other rider I calculated also yielded surprising results
2021 Malcolm Stewart 6th overall 248 points
Average finish 8.41

2020 Malcolm Stewart 7th overall 252 points
Average finish 8.17

So this year Malcolm scored his best ever finish of 3rd however he scored less points than last year and had a slightly worse average finish.
My emotional response is both Ken and Mookie had great seasons when in fact the numbers show they were pretty much the same as last year so I’m not sure what to think.
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TooTallJason
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TooTallJason 5/5/2021 7:41am
5/5/2021 7:41am
I think the logical analysis is that those are "great seasons" in the sense that far more people finished below them, yet they are probably lower than the expectations or goals that each rider had set for themselves.
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Naoooch
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Naoooch 5/5/2021 7:46am
5/5/2021 7:46am
Simple. Field is deeper. Less injury in the top than last year.
1pt in 2021 worth more than 1pt in 2020.
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Ted722
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Ted722 5/5/2021 7:47am
5/5/2021 7:47am Edited Date/Time 5/5/2021 7:57am
For the upper echelon, laps led is an interesting data point too.

Edit: Another stat would be residencies. How were their results on Tuesdays (or the entire week of 3 races). There were a couple sweeps this year.

Boomslang
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Boomslang 5/5/2021 8:00am
5/5/2021 8:00am
No stats so far, season has not started. It's MX after all. Last year is history!

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ATKpilot99
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ATKpilot99 5/5/2021 10:27am
5/5/2021 10:27am
Ted722 wrote:
For the upper echelon, laps led is an interesting data point too. Edit: Another stat would be residencies. How were their results on Tuesdays (or the...
For the upper echelon, laps led is an interesting data point too.

Edit: Another stat would be residencies. How were their results on Tuesdays (or the entire week of 3 races). There were a couple sweeps this year.

Hasn't Roczen led the most laps the past two seasons ?
RichieW13
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RichieW13 5/5/2021 11:09am
5/5/2021 11:09am
Ted722 wrote:
For the upper echelon, laps led is an interesting data point too. Edit: Another stat would be residencies. How were their results on Tuesdays (or the...
For the upper echelon, laps led is an interesting data point too.

Edit: Another stat would be residencies. How were their results on Tuesdays (or the entire week of 3 races). There were a couple sweeps this year.

ATKpilot99 wrote:
Hasn't Roczen led the most laps the past two seasons ?
Yeah, Roczen led by a good margin in 2020 and 2021. I bet it doesn't happen often that a guy has most laps led (by a good margin) and doesn't win the championship.
RichieW13
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RichieW13 5/5/2021 11:25am
5/5/2021 11:25am
28hall wrote:
Curious what people’s thoughts are on comparing statistics from the same rider year to year and how much relevance there is to it? I’m genuinely on...
Curious what people’s thoughts are on comparing statistics from the same rider year to year and how much relevance there is to it? I’m genuinely on the fence about the importance but the two riders I dug into have very surprising results when calculating 2020 results to this year.
*Note I only went off racer x results page with a pen and paper

2021 Ken Roczen 2nd overall 353 points
4 wins 6 podiums 4 races out of the top 5
Average finish 3.58

2020 Ken Roczen 3rd overall 354 points
4 wins 6 podiums 4 races out of the top 5
Average finish 3.64
This year was the closest Ken has been to winning however he actually scored less total points then last year and the results were very very similar.

The other rider I calculated also yielded surprising results
2021 Malcolm Stewart 6th overall 248 points
Average finish 8.41

2020 Malcolm Stewart 7th overall 252 points
Average finish 8.17

So this year Malcolm scored his best ever finish of 3rd however he scored less points than last year and had a slightly worse average finish.
My emotional response is both Ken and Mookie had great seasons when in fact the numbers show they were pretty much the same as last year so I’m not sure what to think.
Yeah, I've been trying to think of ways to do this myself. Using points to compare seasons isn't the best, because the points system is a little arbitrary, with the varying margins between different finish positions.

Some other conundrums:

For Roczen, he finished 30 points out of first last year and 35 points out of first this year. But this year there was nobody between him and first place. So what does that mean? Roughly the same points, but further up in the standings.

Also, strength of competition matters. Stewart finished 6th both years, but one difference is last year Anderson was in the top 5, and this year Plessinger replaced him.

Anderson is another tough one to figure out. He had way more points in 2020, but in 2021 he seemed more competitive. He had two races that combined for 1 point, so that hurt his standing.

I've been trying to think of a way to score results by considering which riders you beat. So if Stewart (for instance) finishes ahead of Webb it's more valuable than finishing ahead of Friese. But what do you do when a guy like Anderson gives up after 9 laps? Does a rider still get credit for beating him?

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stone881
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stone881 5/5/2021 12:05pm
5/5/2021 12:05pm
Ted722 wrote:
For the upper echelon, laps led is an interesting data point too. Edit: Another stat would be residencies. How were their results on Tuesdays (or the...
For the upper echelon, laps led is an interesting data point too.

Edit: Another stat would be residencies. How were their results on Tuesdays (or the entire week of 3 races). There were a couple sweeps this year.

ATKpilot99 wrote:
Hasn't Roczen led the most laps the past two seasons ?
RichieW13 wrote:
Yeah, Roczen led by a good margin in 2020 and 2021. I bet it doesn't happen often that a guy has most laps led (by a...
Yeah, Roczen led by a good margin in 2020 and 2021. I bet it doesn't happen often that a guy has most laps led (by a good margin) and doesn't win the championship.
Seems like Tomac did that a couple of years in a row, but I could be wrong.
RichieW13
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RichieW13 5/5/2021 12:09pm
5/5/2021 12:09pm
ATKpilot99 wrote:
Hasn't Roczen led the most laps the past two seasons ?
RichieW13 wrote:
Yeah, Roczen led by a good margin in 2020 and 2021. I bet it doesn't happen often that a guy has most laps led (by a...
Yeah, Roczen led by a good margin in 2020 and 2021. I bet it doesn't happen often that a guy has most laps led (by a good margin) and doesn't win the championship.
stone881 wrote:
Seems like Tomac did that a couple of years in a row, but I could be wrong.
Yeah, I guess he did it in 2019. I don't have 2018 lap counts handy, but he probably did it then, too. In 2018 he had 12 podiums (8 wins) and then 4 times finishing 13th or worse and he missed a race. So zero finishes between 4th and 12th. That sounds like a good recipe for most laps led.

So it's happened 4 years in a row. Maybe more common than I thought.
28hall
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28hall 5/5/2021 2:11pm
5/5/2021 2:11pm
Naoooch wrote:
Simple. Field is deeper. Less injury in the top than last year.
1pt in 2021 worth more than 1pt in 2020.
This is true at the start of the season however we lost top riders to injury. Also tomac was sub par compared to last year which also makes Ken’s 2020 tally look better as there were 3 guys battling for the top?
28hall
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28hall 5/5/2021 4:22pm
5/5/2021 4:22pm
28hall wrote:
Curious what people’s thoughts are on comparing statistics from the same rider year to year and how much relevance there is to it? I’m genuinely on...
Curious what people’s thoughts are on comparing statistics from the same rider year to year and how much relevance there is to it? I’m genuinely on the fence about the importance but the two riders I dug into have very surprising results when calculating 2020 results to this year.
*Note I only went off racer x results page with a pen and paper

2021 Ken Roczen 2nd overall 353 points
4 wins 6 podiums 4 races out of the top 5
Average finish 3.58

2020 Ken Roczen 3rd overall 354 points
4 wins 6 podiums 4 races out of the top 5
Average finish 3.64
This year was the closest Ken has been to winning however he actually scored less total points then last year and the results were very very similar.

The other rider I calculated also yielded surprising results
2021 Malcolm Stewart 6th overall 248 points
Average finish 8.41

2020 Malcolm Stewart 7th overall 252 points
Average finish 8.17

So this year Malcolm scored his best ever finish of 3rd however he scored less points than last year and had a slightly worse average finish.
My emotional response is both Ken and Mookie had great seasons when in fact the numbers show they were pretty much the same as last year so I’m not sure what to think.
RichieW13 wrote:
Yeah, I've been trying to think of ways to do this myself. Using points to compare seasons isn't the best, because the points system is a...
Yeah, I've been trying to think of ways to do this myself. Using points to compare seasons isn't the best, because the points system is a little arbitrary, with the varying margins between different finish positions.

Some other conundrums:

For Roczen, he finished 30 points out of first last year and 35 points out of first this year. But this year there was nobody between him and first place. So what does that mean? Roughly the same points, but further up in the standings.

Also, strength of competition matters. Stewart finished 6th both years, but one difference is last year Anderson was in the top 5, and this year Plessinger replaced him.

Anderson is another tough one to figure out. He had way more points in 2020, but in 2021 he seemed more competitive. He had two races that combined for 1 point, so that hurt his standing.

I've been trying to think of a way to score results by considering which riders you beat. So if Stewart (for instance) finishes ahead of Webb it's more valuable than finishing ahead of Friese. But what do you do when a guy like Anderson gives up after 9 laps? Does a rider still get credit for beating him?

Osborne was also ahead of Stewart last year but missed races this year, knocking him down the order. I think with Anderson although competitive at times this year was a poor showing as he has finished in the top 5 every year of his 450 career apart from his rookie season and last year due to injury.

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