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10123
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11/16/2011
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Menifee, CA
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Fantasy
856th
Edited Date/Time
4/27/2021 8:32am
OK folks, we have three rounds left and the race tightened up a bit with Cooper Webb's less-than-perfect race at ATL2. He's still in the driver's seat, however, as the numbers will bear out below. Here's how it can all go down:
Cooper Webb has the points lead with 313 points. Ken Roczen sits in 2nd with 300. Eli Tomac is a distant, but still in contention, 3rd place, with 278 points.
The scenario for Eli Tomac is all but hopeless. Even if he wins out the remaining three races, he would net a total of 356 points. All Cooper Webb needs to do is score 44 points and he beats Eli on points. That's two third place finishes and a 19th, two 8ths and a 9th, or two seconds and a DNQ. It's my bet that Webb can outscore Tomac without difficulty this season.
The real race is for the lead with Ken Roczen. Kenny still has to hope for some good luck, but he's not as far out as Webb would like right now. With 13 points to make up, Kenny should look to win all 3 remaining rounds. If he does, they could tie on points and Roczen would win by tiebreaker; 7 wins to 6. That would be 378 points in total, which would mean Webb would earn 65 points, or two second-place finishes and a 4th. He could land in the same place with two 3rds and a 2nd. Not impossible to see that happen, but even one position better in any of those races wins the title for Coop.
If Webb wins one or even finishes ahead of Kenny in any of these races, it starts to get less likely he'll lose the title.
Cooper Webb has the points lead with 313 points. Ken Roczen sits in 2nd with 300. Eli Tomac is a distant, but still in contention, 3rd place, with 278 points.
The scenario for Eli Tomac is all but hopeless. Even if he wins out the remaining three races, he would net a total of 356 points. All Cooper Webb needs to do is score 44 points and he beats Eli on points. That's two third place finishes and a 19th, two 8ths and a 9th, or two seconds and a DNQ. It's my bet that Webb can outscore Tomac without difficulty this season.
The real race is for the lead with Ken Roczen. Kenny still has to hope for some good luck, but he's not as far out as Webb would like right now. With 13 points to make up, Kenny should look to win all 3 remaining rounds. If he does, they could tie on points and Roczen would win by tiebreaker; 7 wins to 6. That would be 378 points in total, which would mean Webb would earn 65 points, or two second-place finishes and a 4th. He could land in the same place with two 3rds and a 2nd. Not impossible to see that happen, but even one position better in any of those races wins the title for Coop.
If Webb wins one or even finishes ahead of Kenny in any of these races, it starts to get less likely he'll lose the title.
The Shop
Cooper Webb may have just won the 2021 SX title, with a gutsy ride at A3. He withstood withering pressure from Plessinger and Tomac, then tracked down and passed a faltering Ken Roczen for the win. With the points as they are now, he can afford to let races come to him. There are no guarantees, of course, but here's how the scenarios could play out:
-Eli Tomac is down 40 points on Webb. He must put 15 or more points on Webb at SLC1, or he is mathematically eliminated from the championship hunt. That's a win for Tomac and an 12th or worse for Webb. Even in that unlikely scenario, Tomac would need to win SLC2 and Webb could score no points at all. Tomac would also have to outscore Roczen by enough to pass him in the points.
-Ken Roczen is not out of the hunt, but it's not looking good. His loss to Webb on Saturday means he cannot win a tiebreaker on wins, so he'll have to beat him straight up in points. 17 more of them, to be precise. Kenny needs to win, period, and Cooper could finish no better than a 5th and a 6th at the two SLC rounds.
In the 450cc class, Webb went on a tear and solidified his lead, while Roczen faltered and took a 6th. The points lead is now 22 points, with only 26 available. Kenny cannot tie, thus he needs to beat Cooper Webb on points. It's as simple as this: Kenny has to win, and Cooper has to lose, bad. No better than 20th. I have to commend Ken Roczen on a well-contested series, but this is Webb's title unless he chokes massively. I can't remember ever seeing him choke, so....
In the 250 East, we have another foregone conclusion. Jo Shimoda, by virtue of his win and Christian Craig's injury, catapulted into 2nd in the standings. He is a long shot for the title with a 23-point deficit to make up on Colt Nichols. Shimoda would need to win the race and hope Nichols cannot finish better than 21st.
250 West is likewise nearly wrapped up. Justin Cooper only has to finish in 17th to tie on points with Hunter Lawrence, assuming Lawrence wins. The tiebreaker would go to him. Cameron MacAdoo is back another 2 points, so he would need a win and would need Cooper to land in 20th or worse. Lawrence could finish in 2nd and it would not matter.
Not too exciting from a title chase this time around, but that's why we run the races, folks. Anything can happen!
Post a reply to: Math with Falcon, 2021 SX Edition