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Let's take a look. Here's some 450SX stats for riders that have won at least 1 250SX title (formally the 125 class) starting from 1999. Amount of titles on the left.
x1 Nathan Ramsey: 2 podiums, 1 win
x2 Ernesto Fonseca: 10 podiums, no wins
x1 Shae Bentley: Never moved up
x1 Stephane Roncada: 3 podiums, no wins
x1 Travis Pastrana: 3 podiums, no wins
x1 Travis Preston: No podiums
x1 Chad Reed: Self explanatory
x2 James Stewart: Self explanatory
x1 Branden Jesseman: Never moved up
x2 Ivan Tedesco: 3 podiums, no wins
x2 Grant Langston: No podiums
x1 Davi Millsaps: 35 podiums, 5 wins
x1 Ryan Villopoto: Self explanatory
x1 Ben Townley: Never moved up
x1 Jason Lawrence: 1 podium, no win
x1 Trey Canard: 21 podiums, 5 wins
x1 Ryan Dungey: Self explanatory
x2 Christophe Pourcel: No podiums
x1 Jake Weimer: 5 podiums, no wins
x1 Broc Tickle: 1 podium, no win
x2 Justin Barcia: 12 podiums, 2 wins
x1 Eli Tomac: 42 podiums, 21 wins
x1 Ken Roczen: 30 podiums, 11 wins
x1 Wil Hahn: No podiums
x1 Jason Anderson: 26 podiums, 7 wins
x1 Justin Bogle: No podiums
x2 Cooper Webb: 2 podiums, no wins
x1 Marvin Musquin: 27 podiums, 6 wins
x1 Malcolm Stewart: No podiums
* Didn't include Zach Osborne, Justin Hill, and Aaron Plessinger since they have yet to do a full 450SX season.
20 years
28 250SX Champs
5 Riders went on to win at least 1 450SX title.
Chad Reed (x2), James Stewart (x2), Ryan Villopoto (x4), Ryan Dungey (x4), and Jason Anderson (x1).
Don't get me wrong, some riders went on to have great careers but I don't think a 250SX title is a good indicator that a rider will automatically be succesful once he moves up to the 450.
If I see Mookie this year get a good start and its "that" track, kind of the same situation Hill was in.... I would be less surprised to see Malc win one than Hill winning one.
The Shop
There is a whole Lotta top 5 Guys , A lot more than what is Gonna fit in the Top 5
Im thinking top 10's for mookie
What was Malcolm's excuse not to show up fit and ready to go over the last couple years? I seem to remember him saying he's skipping the outdoors to come into SX fully prepared. How did that turn out?
"He's never been in this situation with his preparation and having a full on ride."
Who's fault is that? Malcolm could've had a full on ride with MCR coming into 2018 but he didn't return MCR's calls.
Am I the only one that remembers that? Maybe I'm imagining things?
Ride or no ride, it's his job to train and be ready.
Don't deny it, you all know those are facts.
Seems that your problem with Malcolm lies with the fact that he stayed on the couch until he was ready to take charge of his career.
I think his results will be much different this year.
It also seems like the best guys spent the least amount of time in the lites class.
But not all 250 champions become 450 contenders. Justin Bogle, Wil Hahn, Broc Tickle, Jake Weimer, Christophe Pourcel, etc.
Almost every NFL player went to college. This does not mean that going to college is a good indicator that somebody will be an NFL player. It does not even mean that *playing college football* is a good indicator of being an NFL player.
The 5 riders I named represent 10 of the riders who won 250 SX championships between 2009 and 2014. Between them they have zero wins and 6 podiums in the 450 SX class.
Now, I guess you can dispute what "doing well" in the 450's means. But since Stewart has already proven himself to be a guy who can finish regularly in the 10-15 range, with the occasional top-10 finish, I assumed that the discussion of this thread was about whether or not Stewart could tape the next step forward and start being a guy makes it to the podium.
Based on recent history, winning a 250SX championship is a weak indicator of a rider becoming a 450 podium contender.
Not arguing the point. Just pointing out that a 250SX title doesn't guarantee success in the 450 class. And yes, in regards to the list I posted above every 250/450SX title over the past 20 years has been won by someone that has a 125/250SX title to their name.
If you want to be even more specific the 250/450SX title has been won by someone that has a 125/250SX title to their name for the last 21 years (starting in 1998 with McGrath). Before that was Emig in 1997 with no 125/250SX title to his name.
In fact the only guys to have won at least 1 250/450SX title without a 125/250SX title to their names are Jeff Ward (x2), Rick Johnson (x2), Jeff Stanton (x3), Jean-Michel Bayle (x1), and Jeff Emig (x1).
So, if I had to guess the 7 guys to make multiple podiums in 2018, I would go with: Tomac, Musquin, Roczen, Anderson, Barcia, Plessinger and Osborne.
A factory ride doesn't automatically make somebody a podium contender. It helps. But also, factories are generally only bringing in guys who have the ability to be a podium contender. A B level team like MCR will generally get the guys who are a notch lower in ability and/or potential.
For Stewart specifically, yeah he is in a better position this year than he has ever been heading into a 450SX season. He has a team (do we know if it's 100% sure yet?), and has been riding and training all fall. Previous years it didn't sound like he was getting physically ready heading into the season. He should be better off this year. But the field is also pretty deep. Last year he finished 11th in points. I think he's going to have a tough time finishing any higher in 2018.
" I believe that any of the current top ten riders would be podium contenders. "
Who are the top ten riders?
Pit Row
Just my opinion zero disrespect meant no hate involved.. Also no I don't want to bet on it
I did the following list not because you asked but because I was genuinely interested in the topic. There's some interesting stats.
250/450SX Stats 2 Years In
Malcolm Stewart
2017: 15 races, no podiums, best finish - 9th
2018: 16 races, no podiums, best finish - 6th
Marvin Musquin
2016: 16 races, 5 podiums
2017: 17 races, 9 podiums, 2 wins
Cooper Webb
2017: 12 races, 1 podium
2018: 13 races, 1 podium
Justin Bogle
2016: 14 races, no podiums, best finish - 4th
2017: 12 races, no podiums, best finish - 9th
Jason Anderson
2015: 16 races, 2 podiums
2016: 17 races, 7 podiums, 2 wins
Wil Hahn
2014: 11 races, no podiums, best finish - 4th
2016: 7 races, no podiums, best finish - 10th
*Injured in 2015 before the season started.
Ken Roczen
2014: 17 races, 8 podiums, 2 wins
2015: 9 races, 5 podiums, 2 wins
Eli Tomac
2014: 9 races, 2 podiums
2015: 17 races, 11 podiums, 3 wins
Justin Barcia
2013: 17 races, 5 podiums, 2 wins
2014: 14 races, 4 podiums
Broc Tickle
2012: 16 races, no podiums, best finish - 6th
2013: 17 races, no podiums, best finish - 7th
Jake Weimer
2012: 16 races, 5 podiums
2013: 14 races, no podiums, best finish - 4th
*In 2011 he came back from injury and only did the final 2 races with his best finish being a 6th.
Christophe Pourcel
2016: 11 races, no podiums, best finish - 7th
2017: 2 races, no podiums, best finish - 14th
*Retired from SX
Ryan Dungey
2010: 17 races, 11 podiums, 6 wins
2011: 17 races, 13 podiums, 1 win
Trey Canard
2011: 14 races, 5 podiums, 3 wins
2012: 2 races, no podiums, best finish - 7th
2013: 16 races, 3 podiums
Jason Lawrence
2009: 4 races, 1 podium
2010: 8 races, no podiums, best finish - 8th
*2009 did 2 250 rounds before switching to the 450. His only 2 seasons on a 450.
Ryan Villopoto
2009: 13 races, 5 podiums, 2 wins
2010: 14 races, 8 podiums, 7 wins
Davi Millsaps
2007: 9 races, 1 podium
2008: 17 races, 8 podiums, 2 wins
Grant Langston
2004: 10 races, no podiums, best finish - 5th
2007: 7 races, no podiums, best finish - 4th
*Raced the 125/250 class in '05 and '06 and won the title each year.
Ivan Tedesco
2006: 16 races, 2 podiums
2007: 16 races, no podiums, best finish - 4th
James Stewart
2006: 16 races, 13 podiums, 8 wins
2007: 16 races, 15 podiums, 13 wins
Chad Reed
2003: 16 races, 14 podiums, 8 wins
2004: 16 races, 16 podiums, 10 wins
*Interesting fact for 2004: Worse finish - 3rd, Once
Travis Preston
2005: 12 races, no podiums, best finish - 6th
2006: 16 races, no podiums, best finish - 4th
Travis Pastrana
2002: 9 races, 3 podiums
2003: 2 races, no podiums, best finish - 12th
For the fun of it, the rest of Pastrana's 250/450 career
2004: 3 races, no podiums, best finish - 10th
2005: 3 races, no podiums, best finish - 10th
Stephane Roncada
2001: 13 races, no podiums, best finish - 4th
2002: 16 races, 3 podiums
Ernesto Fonseca
2002: 14 races, 3 podiums
2003: 16 races, 6 podiums
Nathan Ramsey
2002: 15 races, 2 podiums, 1 win
2007: 7 races, no podiums, best finish - 5th
*Seasons in between he either raced the 125 class or a combination of the 125 and 250 class a side from 2003 where he was out the entire year.
Now you are going to say he should pay out of his pocket, or his rich brother should pay for all of it. He said clearly he wasnt going to work for free, and I support him and rider who takes that stance. He doesnt need to pay to race nor should he.
I am a big Mookie fan, and I hope this is his breakout year. I am rooting for good things.
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