I did the math on RV..

CCP
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4/21/2015 3:13am Edited Date/Time 4/21/2015 2:34pm
1. Clement Desalle: 171
6. Ryan Villopoto: 124

171 – 124 = 47 points behind (ie. less than 2 moto wins)

There's another 14 stops, which is 28 races with a max opportunity of 25 points at each race = 700 points (Read: 700 POSSIBLE POINTS). Even if he did half as good, that's still another 350 points, which is 179 more than Desalle current has, who could also crash, DNF, have a mechanical, get injured in any moto, at any time (which goes for Cairoli, Nagl, Paulin, anyone).

So as a hypothetical, if RV goes 1-1 from here on out, and Clemente goes 2-2, he could gain an additional 84 Points, which would mean RV wins the championship by 37 points.

Sounds stupid yeah, but RV just looped out on a straight this weekend - anything is possible.

Just saying this thing is FAR from over. 700 possible points is far from over.



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DeStouwer
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4/21/2015 3:16am
Gee, I wonder if this was pointed out already in one of the other RV threads this week.
struth
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4/21/2015 3:18am Edited Date/Time 4/21/2015 3:19am
Gee like people have time to go thru 20 pages on some threads/topics...

Anyhow, any official word on rv health before we do the math.
TriRacer27
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4/21/2015 6:03am
Never over till its over.

This isn't the first time he has started a championship down a ton of points.
mx_563
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4/21/2015 6:10am
FAR from over? I don't think it's that far from being over. I agree it's not over. But it's not very far from being over.

The Shop

logan_140
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4/21/2015 6:11am
mx_563 wrote:
FAR from over? I don't think it's that far from being over. I agree it's not over. But it's not very far from being over.
Long season, people crash, bikes have mechanicals. Lot of stuff can happen.
Seamorbutts
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4/21/2015 6:13am
struth wrote:
Gee like people have time to go thru 20 pages on some threads/topics...

Anyhow, any official word on rv health before we do the math.
He's probably somewhere In between sore and cripple. Hell, I don't know, does anyone know?
huck
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4/21/2015 6:18am
I think you did the METH in your RV....
DeStouwer
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4/21/2015 6:18am
struth wrote:
Gee like people have time to go thru 20 pages on some threads/topics...

Anyhow, any official word on rv health before we do the math.
He's probably somewhere In between sore and cripple. Hell, I don't know, does anyone know?
No news, good news I suppose. If it was serious we would've heard it by now.
logan_140
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4/21/2015 6:21am
struth wrote:
Gee like people have time to go thru 20 pages on some threads/topics...

Anyhow, any official word on rv health before we do the math.
He's probably somewhere In between sore and cripple. Hell, I don't know, does anyone know?
DeStouwer wrote:
No news, good news I suppose. If it was serious we would've heard it by now.
hes prob back at the test track, testing suspension getting ready for the weekend.
Ing
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4/21/2015 7:52am
logan_140 wrote:
hes prob back at the test track, testing suspension getting ready for the weekend.
Was it just me or did RV's bike look like it was bouncing a lot more than most on those square edge bumps last weekend?
Flip109
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4/21/2015 8:02am
Craziest part is Max Nagl is currently doing what I thought RV would be doing! I barely knew who this guy was before the season started for the GPs. He's crazy fast dusting TC like that in the second Moto on that crazy ass track this past weekend.
h&m_cycle
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4/21/2015 8:19am
CCP wrote:
1. Clement Desalle: 171 6. Ryan Villopoto: 124 171 – 124 = 47 points behind (ie. less than 2 moto wins) There's another 14 stops, which...
1. Clement Desalle: 171
6. Ryan Villopoto: 124

171 – 124 = 47 points behind (ie. less than 2 moto wins)

There's another 14 stops, which is 28 races with a max opportunity of 25 points at each race = 700 points (Read: 700 POSSIBLE POINTS). Even if he did half as good, that's still another 350 points, which is 179 more than Desalle current has, who could also crash, DNF, have a mechanical, get injured in any moto, at any time (which goes for Cairoli, Nagl, Paulin, anyone).

So as a hypothetical, if RV goes 1-1 from here on out, and Clemente goes 2-2, he could gain an additional 84 Points, which would mean RV wins the championship by 37 points.

Sounds stupid yeah, but RV just looped out on a straight this weekend - anything is possible.

Just saying this thing is FAR from over. 700 possible points is far from over.



The top 7 guys in the series can win races, IMO 2 or 3 of them will not be healthy enough to race every moto of the
championship.

RY4N37
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4/21/2015 8:37am
It's true that crazy things can happen and in that respect its not over at all. His biggest problem is that he is not just almost 50 points behind the leader. He's nearly 50 points behind all the top 3 guys. 2 of which have beaten him in 7 out of 8 motos this season, the other 6 out of 8. He's right there with them, at least he has been the last few races, but he needs to start landing some punches on these guys or the top 3 will edge away from him. It's not game over yet, but he's in a position now where one more day like yesterday and it will be
logan_140
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4/21/2015 8:46am
logan_140 wrote:
hes prob back at the test track, testing suspension getting ready for the weekend.
Ing wrote:
Was it just me or did RV's bike look like it was bouncing a lot more than most on those square edge bumps last weekend?
It did look like that, bike is far from set up to rv's liking.....
Crossup
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4/21/2015 8:57am Edited Date/Time 4/21/2015 9:11am
CCP wrote:
1. Clement Desalle: 171 6. Ryan Villopoto: 124 171 – 124 = 47 points behind (ie. less than 2 moto wins) There's another 14 stops, which...
1. Clement Desalle: 171
6. Ryan Villopoto: 124

171 – 124 = 47 points behind (ie. less than 2 moto wins)

There's another 14 stops, which is 28 races with a max opportunity of 25 points at each race = 700 points (Read: 700 POSSIBLE POINTS). Even if he did half as good, that's still another 350 points, which is 179 more than Desalle current has, who could also crash, DNF, have a mechanical, get injured in any moto, at any time (which goes for Cairoli, Nagl, Paulin, anyone).

So as a hypothetical, if RV goes 1-1 from here on out, and Clemente goes 2-2, he could gain an additional 84 Points, which would mean RV wins the championship by 37 points.

Sounds stupid yeah, but RV just looped out on a straight this weekend - anything is possible.

Just saying this thing is FAR from over. 700 possible points is far from over.



Absolutely! At least someone else did look a little forward and did the math. There were a lot on here predicting it being over on Sunday.

Cairloi has been the most consistent over the years. Nagel finished 6th last year 347 points back of Cairoli. Granted he has won 3 GPs and is riding great right now. Desalle finished 4th last year 263 points back from Cairoli.

There is a lot of time and anything can happen. RV will be at least back in 4th by the end of Valkenswaard. He doesn't give up.
DownSouth
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4/21/2015 9:02am Edited Date/Time 4/21/2015 9:10am
Has Desalle ever finished every moto in the series?

The times he finished second to Cairoli in the championship he was 88, 98, and 90 points behind.

Every one of theses guys are probably going to DNF a few. Usually Cairoli is the one with the least amount of mistakes.

MXD
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4/21/2015 9:07am Edited Date/Time 4/21/2015 9:08am
It's less about the points he has to make up and more about the number of guys he has to leap over. Making 47 points on one rider is tough. Making them up on 6(?) riders is very unlikely.

Also, his wife posted that he's bruised and sore but not broken. All is well according to her.
Crush
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4/21/2015 9:09am
RY4N37 wrote:
It's true that crazy things can happen and in that respect its not over at all. His biggest problem is that he is not just almost...
It's true that crazy things can happen and in that respect its not over at all. His biggest problem is that he is not just almost 50 points behind the leader. He's nearly 50 points behind all the top 3 guys. 2 of which have beaten him in 7 out of 8 motos this season, the other 6 out of 8. He's right there with them, at least he has been the last few races, but he needs to start landing some punches on these guys or the top 3 will edge away from him. It's not game over yet, but he's in a position now where one more day like yesterday and it will be
Mmmm... Not arguing his current position...

But Desalle and Nagl are hardly pictures of consistency... Cairoli has beaten them by being better, but also by them being worse.

There are 28 motos to go. That's a fucking lot of racing. More than the entire national series.
mehow2g
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4/21/2015 9:10am
All it takes is Desalle is to go down and he's been close to that, RV wont be the only one of the top guys to hit the deck.
RY4N37
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4/21/2015 9:21am
RY4N37 wrote:
It's true that crazy things can happen and in that respect its not over at all. His biggest problem is that he is not just almost...
It's true that crazy things can happen and in that respect its not over at all. His biggest problem is that he is not just almost 50 points behind the leader. He's nearly 50 points behind all the top 3 guys. 2 of which have beaten him in 7 out of 8 motos this season, the other 6 out of 8. He's right there with them, at least he has been the last few races, but he needs to start landing some punches on these guys or the top 3 will edge away from him. It's not game over yet, but he's in a position now where one more day like yesterday and it will be
Crush wrote:
Mmmm... Not arguing his current position... But Desalle and Nagl are hardly pictures of consistency... Cairoli has beaten them by being better, but also by them...
Mmmm... Not arguing his current position...

But Desalle and Nagl are hardly pictures of consistency... Cairoli has beaten them by being better, but also by them being worse.

There are 28 motos to go. That's a fucking lot of racing. More than the entire national series.
No I will grant you that both Desalle and Nagl have had trouble in the past with staying in the hunt all year, especially Nagl. Desalle not so much. As I said before, his biggest problem is being that far behind 3 different guys. If it was just one guy then it's a completely different story.

As you said, there's a lot of racing to go, anything can happen, but it's a tall order
hillbilly
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4/21/2015 9:22am
It is over,with the experience those guys have on tracks coming up ,knowing where the lines develop puts RV at a huge disadvantage.

He probably hoped to have the red plate on these tracks that are new to everyone and then try to hold it thru the historical tracks where these guys have turned laps for years.

WoodsRacer
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4/21/2015 9:36am
Lets break this down, R=18, V=22. 22-18 = 4, half of 4 is 2, put that 2 back in front of 22 and you get 222. So that math says RV is half of TC. BOOM!
dak446
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4/21/2015 9:39am
huck wrote:
I think you did the METH in your RV....
Well done.
4/21/2015 10:10am
hillbilly wrote:
It is over,with the experience those guys have on tracks coming up ,knowing where the lines develop puts RV at a huge disadvantage. He probably hoped...
It is over,with the experience those guys have on tracks coming up ,knowing where the lines develop puts RV at a huge disadvantage.

He probably hoped to have the red plate on these tracks that are new to everyone and then try to hold it thru the historical tracks where these guys have turned laps for years.

Iv'e always picked Tony for the title but that's ^^ what I thought would happen tbh. I suspected that he'd leave everyone behind in Qatar (I had Paulin as the next closest), then do the same in Thailand - which to a certain extent is what happened - and of course the circuit in Argentina always looked a little more flowing like a National layout and as you say; was an unknown quantity for everyone.

On the other hand (and on a positive note) Ryan actually did better than I expected in Trentino as far as speed goes. The same goes for the 2nd moto in Argentina where he was dropped in the 1st moto and looked to be no where near, but then was suddenly right there for all of race 2. That tells me that the guy really does figure things out fast and has already come a long way very quickly. It's just that his expectations are so damn high.

But yeah, in respect to the title he is in a hole right now and though he can and will beat the top guys on some tracks (I think he'll surprise many in Valkenswaard), it's whether he can beat them enough (Tony especially) before Glen Helen. Tony himself may also be in trouble if Nagl and Clement don't grenade as in previous yrs. This year just has a weird feeling about it and I can't wait to see what happens this weekend!
smezmx
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4/21/2015 10:11am
Two things,people talk about him adjusting to the euro track's on here but team usa never seemed to have that problem when they won the nation's about 15-20 times in the 80's and 90's? Or whatever it was.
I also think 47 point's is doable/feasible for a top rider to go on a win streak but bearing in mind he's still probably sore and it's a heavy sand track this week.well it's not looking great?
Just got my april mxa and it Look's like thor did some math of their own?
10 time american bad ass!.......or was that sore ass!? Wink
And before anybody jumps down my throat.....yes i'm only kidding.
4/21/2015 10:21am Edited Date/Time 4/21/2015 10:22am
smezmx wrote:
Two things,people talk about him adjusting to the euro track's on here but team usa never seemed to have that problem when they won the nation's...
Two things,people talk about him adjusting to the euro track's on here but team usa never seemed to have that problem when they won the nation's about 15-20 times in the 80's and 90's? Or whatever it was.
I also think 47 point's is doable/feasible for a top rider to go on a win streak but bearing in mind he's still probably sore and it's a heavy sand track this week.well it's not looking great?
Just got my april mxa and it Look's like thor did some math of their own?
10 time american bad ass!.......or was that sore ass!? Wink
And before anybody jumps down my throat.....yes i'm only kidding.
Valkenswaard isn't a heavy sand track, much more like a Southwick type surface. Admittedly I haven't been but that seems to be the consensus.

people talk about him adjusting to the euro track's on here but team usa never seemed to have that problem when they won the nation's about 15-20 times in the 80's and 90's?

I think this is mostly due to the direction the National tracks have taken over the past 15 odd years. They've become deeper, more loamy (with the variation in terrain becoming less and less) and, compared to the GP circuits, are wider and more flowing.
RY4N37
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4/21/2015 10:25am
smezmx wrote:
Two things,people talk about him adjusting to the euro track's on here but team usa never seemed to have that problem when they won the nation's...
Two things,people talk about him adjusting to the euro track's on here but team usa never seemed to have that problem when they won the nation's about 15-20 times in the 80's and 90's? Or whatever it was.
I also think 47 point's is doable/feasible for a top rider to go on a win streak but bearing in mind he's still probably sore and it's a heavy sand track this week.well it's not looking great?
Just got my april mxa and it Look's like thor did some math of their own?
10 time american bad ass!.......or was that sore ass!? Wink
And before anybody jumps down my throat.....yes i'm only kidding.
Valkenswaard isn't a heavy sand track, much more like a Southwick type surface. Admittedly I haven't been but that seems to be the consensus. [i]people talk...
Valkenswaard isn't a heavy sand track, much more like a Southwick type surface. Admittedly I haven't been but that seems to be the consensus.

people talk about him adjusting to the euro track's on here but team usa never seemed to have that problem when they won the nation's about 15-20 times in the 80's and 90's?

I think this is mostly due to the direction the National tracks have taken over the past 15 odd years. They've become deeper, more loamy (with the variation in terrain becoming less and less) and, compared to the GP circuits, are wider and more flowing.
Valkenswaard isn't as deep as somewhere like Lommel and Lierop, but I was there last year and it was still absolutely brutal. It has a harder base and it gets extremely choppy, I think it's a bigger challenge than a lot of people think
h&m_cycle
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4/21/2015 10:26am
You would think RV would do well on this track, it's red clay, looks Supercross in Brazil, it's on the schedule



TeamGreen
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4/21/2015 10:27am
I think there'll be a few leaders with more than a few "bad motos".

All I know is: They're Keeping It INTERESTING.
smezmx
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4/21/2015 10:32am
Yes agreed not as deep as lommel for instance but still a rough sandy track.only time will tell i suppose.i'm not gonna make any predictions especially after what's happened already this year.

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