How long until electric bikes rule the world?

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12/6/2017 11:02 AM

Realistically, how long do you guys think it will be before we are all running on E bikes? Personally It can’t come soon enough for me, been in stuck on this tiny island (UK) were everyone complains about everything I genuinely think it will be the best thing to happen to the sport in a long time. It will unlock so many riding spots and help our struggling sport.

Alta do you have any plans to sell bikes in Europe? Our ever growing population/less space/more houses means riding spots are disappearing rapidly, I really do fear for Mx in the UK

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12/6/2017 11:11 AM

10 years until they're prominent. 20 years or less until gas bikes are obsolete.

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12/6/2017 11:14 AM

I think theyll always be an option. Taking the noise out of riding doesnt sound fun at all.

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12/6/2017 11:17 AM

I may be in the minority but I hope never.

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12/6/2017 11:18 AM

For personal use they seem to be a great idea. More places to ride. Less pissed off neighbors. But id hate to see gas bikes go away from racing. It would kill it. The sound of the bikes echoing in the stadiums, the smell of the race gas. The sound before the gate drop? Without that id never ever watch or go. Iam looking to get one for the hills near my house but iam still loading up the gas bike for the track.

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12/6/2017 11:22 AM

Of course nobody really has the answer to this, we'll just have to wait and see. Personally I am a die hard two-stroke guy, but I don't think electric bikes can come soon enough. If nobody can hear us riding nobody will know, its a win win.

The limiting factors are battery charging times and range, for a trail bike you would not want to be stuck miles in the woods with a dead battery. There is a reason the technology hasn't taken off yet. But I think it will, its only just getting started.

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12/6/2017 11:23 AM

ATKpilot99 wrote:

I may be in the minority but I hope never.

I agree, electric bikes are cool and I'd love to have one but I'm not looking forward to the day I go to a race and it sounds like I'm at an RC car track.

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12/6/2017 11:24 AM

I use to think that electric technology will ever take over, but after seeing Tesla and what their cars can do I am convinced that gas powered vehicles will be obsolete within ten years.

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12/6/2017 11:25 AM

flymoto wrote:

Realistically, how long do you guys think it will be before we are all running on E bikes? Personally It can’t come soon enough for me, been in stuck on this tiny island (UK) were everyone complains about everything I genuinely think it will be the best thing to happen to the sport in a long time. It will unlock so many riding spots and help our struggling sport.

Alta do you have any plans to sell bikes in Europe? Our ever growing population/less space/more houses means riding spots are disappearing rapidly, I really do fear for Mx in the UK

My sponsor has been looking at trying to get bikes into Germany, but they arent ready to export stuff yet, until they have all the dealers set up and supplied .

It will come, and be its own thing IMO.

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12/6/2017 11:26 AM

Unless they can cut the price in half they won't. The motorcycle industry can't survive without the guy on the 5 or 10 year old used bike that he bought for 2-4k. Those won't exist if you have to mortgage your house to buy one.

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12/6/2017 11:29 AM

flymoto wrote:

Realistically, how long do you guys think it will be before we are all running on E bikes? Personally It can’t come soon enough for me, been in stuck on this tiny island (UK) were everyone complains about everything I genuinely think it will be the best thing to happen to the sport in a long time. It will unlock so many riding spots and help our struggling sport.

Alta do you have any plans to sell bikes in Europe? Our ever growing population/less space/more houses means riding spots are disappearing rapidly, I really do fear for Mx in the UK

i am kind of with you , i dont think the people in the USA know how lucky they are when it comes to track s or even just riding on your own land . so man tracks have been closed here because of noise , i just hope the price come s down

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12/6/2017 11:38 AM

Electric bikes will rule the world as soon as the AMA gives them an insurmountable advantage.

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Braaapin' aint easy.

12/6/2017 11:43 AM

I wish they weren't a necessity but on this little island, if mx is going to continue they are essential. I will trade the loss of noise and feel for actually having somewhere to ride.

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12/6/2017 11:46 AM
Edited Date/Time: 12/6/2017 11:49 AM

If the motorcycle manufacturers are anything like the car manufacturers, it will be the next five years:

Here's how every major automaker plans to go electric

GM said it plans to phase out gas-powered vehicles for an "all-electric future" but didn't give an exact date for an all-EV line. The effort starts, however, with plans for 20 all-electric vehicles by 2023.

Ford created the EV-dedicated "Team Edison" to focus on the development of all-electric cars. The automaker also pledged to invest $4.5 billion over five years on new all-electric and hybrid vehicles, with 13 new models slated for release by 2023.

Toyota and Mazda recently announced that they're teaming up with auto-parts manufacturer Senso to create a new company to develop basic EV technology for use across multiple vehicle types and models, expanding beyond Toyota's Prius line. The two Japanese carmakers also pledged to build a $1.6 billion U.S.-based plant by 2021, where they'll work on electric and hybrid vehicles.

Daimler, the parent company of Mercedes-Benz, will invest $1 billion in an Alabama plant to produce all-electric SUVs and build a battery facility, and $10 billion in EV development overall. Mercedes-Benz outlined a plan to electrify its "entire portfolio" by 2022, offering 50 electric and hybrid models.

The Renault, Nissan, and Mitsubishi alliance will work together to develop new systems to use across their vehicle lines, with a focus on "purely electric" EVs like the Nissan Leaf. The automakers plan to release 12 all-electric models by 2022.

Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) plans to electrify its entire vehicle lineup by 2020, with new powertrains ranging from mild hybrid vehicles to all-electric systems.

Volvo will electrify its entire vehicle line by 2019, with five all-electric models slated to roll out from 2019 to 2021. The automaker hopes to sell one million of the electric and hybrid cars by 2025.

VW Group, parent of European automakers like Volkswagen, Audi, and Porsche, will invest $84 billion in EV development. Roughly $60 billion of the total will be dedicated to battery production, but the company also plans to offer electric and hybrid versions of 300 vehicles by 2030.

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12/6/2017 11:56 AM

RandyS wrote:

Unless they can cut the price in half they won't. The motorcycle industry can't survive without the guy on the 5 or 10 year old used bike that he bought for 2-4k. Those won't exist if you have to mortgage your house to buy one.

10 years ago did you think that KTM would be the major player they are today? 20 years ago did anyone believe 4-strokes would completely take over the market? There are a number of factors involved in a changing landscape of motorcycle technology and manufacturers, but the most important aspects are OEM involvement and a paradigm shift among consumers.

In 1997 Yamaha put in the resources to make a very competitive 4-stroke. Then they got someone to race it and prove its abilities. Alta has the right idea but they are a startup. KTM will likely be the first established manufacturer to hit the market with a competitive e-bike, and it will only be a matter of time until other companies follow suit or get left behind. The competition among the producers and higher supply will drive down the price.

IMO smaller companies like TM or struggling companies like Suzuki (in the dirt bike market anyway) would be wise to put more resources towards developing e-technology to get a jump on the market rather than staying within current trends.

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12/6/2017 11:59 AM

How long before the 4t vs Electric Bike threads...I'm saying 10 years. Expect development of IC bikes to slow/stop in the mean time

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12/6/2017 12:02 PM

bayodome wrote:

10 years ago did you think that KTM would be the major player they are today? 20 years ago did anyone believe 4-strokes would completely take over the market? There are a number of factors involved in a changing landscape of motorcycle technology and manufacturers, but the most important aspects are OEM involvement and a paradigm shift among consumers.

In 1997 Yamaha put in the resources to make a very competitive 4-stroke. Then they got someone to race it and prove its abilities. Alta has the right idea but they are a startup. KTM will likely be the first established manufacturer to hit the market with a competitive e-bike, and it will only be a matter of time until other companies follow suit or get left behind. The competition among the producers and higher supply will drive down the price.

IMO smaller companies like TM or struggling companies like Suzuki (in the dirt bike market anyway) would be wise to put more resources towards developing e-technology to get a jump on the market rather than staying within current trends.

10 years ago would you have thought 2 strokes sales would be picking up steam?

Randy S has a point. In 10 years there will be lots of sales of electrics but it wont be for at least 20 years that they are dominant in what people are actually riding. Same goes for cars.

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12/6/2017 12:05 PM

When they're as fun to ride as a 2-stroke.

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12/6/2017 12:16 PM

erik_94COBRA wrote:

When they're as fun to ride as a 2-stroke.

They are as fun, if not more, to ride as a 2-stroke. And I have several 2-strokes in addition to my Alta Redshift.

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12/6/2017 12:16 PM

When the energy density of the batteries doubles from what it is today, which is not that far off.
They already out perform gas, just not extended periods of time.

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12/6/2017 12:17 PM

early wrote:

10 years ago would you have thought 2 strokes sales would be picking up steam?

Randy S has a point. In 10 years there will be lots of sales of electrics but it wont be for at least 20 years that they are dominant in what people are actually riding. Same goes for cars.

To quote my first post in this thread "10 years until they're prominent. 20 years or less until gas bikes are obsolete."

And yes I could see the resurgence of 2-strokes coming. Kinda gave it a nudge too when I did the Vital ReVival project. Never really stopped riding 2-strokes either, but they are old tech. The idea that there might be some premix nationals is cool, but backwards in my opinion.

The AMA should be incentivizing E-bike participation to help development. Start with their series with any manufacturer who wants to participate, whether it's available to the public or just a prototype. Then move to something like Formula E and MotoGP (which will have an E class in 2019). If Alta had the resources, they could create their own spec class for the nationals or Supercross as a means of development and showing the public what their equipment can really do.

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12/6/2017 12:19 PM
Edited Date/Time: 12/6/2017 12:28 PM

ATKpilot99 wrote:

I may be in the minority but I hope never.

I'm with you!

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12/6/2017 12:21 PM

When HELL freezes over.

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12/6/2017 12:23 PM

^ X2

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12/6/2017 12:23 PM

If in 10 years the majority of bikes are electric we've probably seen the last generation of Suzuki 4 strokes, maybe Yamaha too. Honda, Kawi, and KTM have the next big guys so they'll still have to stay up. Maybe that's what Suzuki dropping out of a bunch of series is about.

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12/6/2017 12:28 PM

bayodome wrote:

To quote my first post in this thread "10 years until they're prominent. 20 years or less until gas bikes are obsolete."

And yes I could see the resurgence of 2-strokes coming. Kinda gave it a nudge too when I did the Vital ReVival project. Never really stopped riding 2-strokes either, but they are old tech. The idea that there might be some premix nationals is cool, but backwards in my opinion.

The AMA should be incentivizing E-bike participation to help development. Start with their series with any manufacturer who wants to participate, whether it's available to the public or just a prototype. Then move to something like Formula E and MotoGP (which will have an E class in 2019). If Alta had the resources, they could create their own spec class for the nationals or Supercross as a means of development and showing the public what their equipment can really do.

I think obsolete is a bit of a strong word. Gas powered offroad vehicles will be around for a long time. I could see pro mx being all electric in 20 years though.

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12/6/2017 12:50 PM

Range, for me it's all about range. How many miles can I cover, not laps? I want to know I can make it back to camp. Get that into the 100 mile range and I'm all in.

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12/6/2017 1:02 PM

early wrote:

10 years ago would you have thought 2 strokes sales would be picking up steam?

Randy S has a point. In 10 years there will be lots of sales of electrics but it wont be for at least 20 years that they are dominant in what people are actually riding. Same goes for cars.

bayodome wrote:

To quote my first post in this thread "10 years until they're prominent. 20 years or less until gas bikes are obsolete."

And yes I could see the resurgence of 2-strokes coming. Kinda gave it a nudge too when I did the Vital ReVival project. Never really stopped riding 2-strokes either, but they are old tech. The idea that there might be some premix nationals is cool, but backwards in my opinion.

The AMA should be incentivizing E-bike participation to help development. Start with their series with any manufacturer who wants to participate, whether it's available to the public or just a prototype. Then move to something like Formula E and MotoGP (which will have an E class in 2019). If Alta had the resources, they could create their own spec class for the nationals or Supercross as a means of development and showing the public what their equipment can really do.

early wrote:

I think obsolete is a bit of a strong word. Gas powered offroad vehicles will be around for a long time. I could see pro mx being all electric in 20 years though.

Obsolete is a strong word, which is why I used it.

I do not see basic bike design changing much in the next 10-15 years, so I would guess there will be a push of converting older bikes with electric motors, which would obviously cut costs for consumers. Eventually batteries will be small, light, and powerful enough to fit within current model frames. Any company that figures out proper retrofitting of complete e-motors and batteries will do pretty well.

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12/6/2017 1:28 PM

Probably 20-30 years.

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12/6/2017 1:43 PM

bayodome wrote:

Obsolete is a strong word, which is why I used it.

I do not see basic bike design changing much in the next 10-15 years, so I would guess there will be a push of converting older bikes with electric motors, which would obviously cut costs for consumers. Eventually batteries will be small, light, and powerful enough to fit within current model frames. Any company that figures out proper retrofitting of complete e-motors and batteries will do pretty well.

Agreed on the conversion idea.

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