Eli Tomac 2020 Supercross

Park Boys
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Park Boys 9/20/2019 9:48am
9/20/2019 9:48am
Motofinne wrote:
Nope. Nobody has ever won a premier title in SX in their 5th or later year in the class. Tomac wont break that record, neither will...
Nope. Nobody has ever won a premier title in SX in their 5th or later year in the class.

Tomac wont break that record, neither will Roczen.
False
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RichieW13
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RichieW13 9/20/2019 9:49am
9/20/2019 9:49am
Casting wrote:
So hard to call... To borrow Ralph's favorite phrase, Eli has the chance to "go on a run" and make 2020 his year for SX. However...
So hard to call... To borrow Ralph's favorite phrase, Eli has the chance to "go on a run" and make 2020 his year for SX. However, the past 2 years have looked like a non-traditional changing-of-the-guard and I cannot help but think this trend will continue.

We're going to be treated to a superb SX season boys. How many people on the line at A1 have the potential to win a race?
-Anderson
-Webb
-Musquin
-Roczen
-Tomac
-Baggett
-AC
-Barcia? (Counting him since he won last year, though it's debatable if he will repeat with a win)

What about guys who can win the championship?
-Anderson
-Webb
-Musquin
-Roczen
-Tomac

My personal opinion for who will be in the fight post-Daytona?
-Webb
-Tomac
-Anderson

For whatever reason, I think Musquin will not be a major championship player, and unfortunately I worry about Roczen's health inhibiting his true potential.


But hey, either way, this is going to be one hell of a season!!

Edit: On the right night I can see wildcards like Mookie, Savatgy, Plessinger and Dean competing for the top spot, though not on a consistent basis.
I would add Osborne to your list of guys who could win a race or a championship.
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RichieW13 9/20/2019 9:58am
9/20/2019 9:58am
Motofinne wrote:
Nope. Nobody has ever won a premier title in SX in their 5th or later year in the class. Tomac wont break that record, neither will...
Nope. Nobody has ever won a premier title in SX in their 5th or later year in the class.

Tomac wont break that record, neither will Roczen.
This logic doesn't hold up for a few reasons.

1) Just because it never happened, doesn't mean it can't happen. Nobody won a race at age 33 (nearly 34) until Brayton did.
2) The history of supercross is covered with guys like McGrath, Carmichael, Dungey; who pretty much dominated the sport. So that made it much tougher for anybody to win their first championship late in their careers.
3) There's nothing magical about a 5th season. Anderson won in his 4th season. If you are a guy like Baggett who has not shown the consistent speed (and health) to be a title contender, you probably won't suddenly get it in your 5th season. But that doesn't apply to Tomac, who has been the fastest guy in supercross over the past 3 years combined.

And it's not an age thing. Tomac will be 27 next year. Dungey won a championship at 27. McGrath won at 28.
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Park Boys 9/20/2019 10:01am
9/20/2019 10:01am
Motofinne wrote:
Nope. Nobody has ever won a premier title in SX in their 5th or later year in the class. Tomac wont break that record, neither will...
Nope. Nobody has ever won a premier title in SX in their 5th or later year in the class.

Tomac wont break that record, neither will Roczen.
RichieW13 wrote:
This logic doesn't hold up for a few reasons. 1) Just because it never happened, doesn't mean it can't happen. Nobody won a race at age...
This logic doesn't hold up for a few reasons.

1) Just because it never happened, doesn't mean it can't happen. Nobody won a race at age 33 (nearly 34) until Brayton did.
2) The history of supercross is covered with guys like McGrath, Carmichael, Dungey; who pretty much dominated the sport. So that made it much tougher for anybody to win their first championship late in their careers.
3) There's nothing magical about a 5th season. Anderson won in his 4th season. If you are a guy like Baggett who has not shown the consistent speed (and health) to be a title contender, you probably won't suddenly get it in your 5th season. But that doesn't apply to Tomac, who has been the fastest guy in supercross over the past 3 years combined.

And it's not an age thing. Tomac will be 27 next year. Dungey won a championship at 27. McGrath won at 28.
The logic is false because it’s false. 1997 SX champ. I will never understand when people post facts while being wrong.
You bring up vailed points as well.
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RichieW13 9/20/2019 10:02am
9/20/2019 10:02am Edited Date/Time 9/20/2019 10:02am
Motofinne wrote:
Nope. Nobody has ever won a premier title in SX in their 5th or later year in the class. Tomac wont break that record, neither will...
Nope. Nobody has ever won a premier title in SX in their 5th or later year in the class.

Tomac wont break that record, neither will Roczen.
Park Boys wrote:
False
Funny. I also forgot that the premise was wrong.

I assume OP meant "never won their first title..."

Emig won his first in his 6th full season. I think Ward's first is in his 5th season (though maybe not a good comparison because there was no 125 class for him to ride at the time).
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early 9/20/2019 10:11am
9/20/2019 10:11am
People saying "I can't see Tomac winning the SX championship..."

You can see Webb, Anderson, Roczen, Musquin winning it?

I don't understand that logic. All these guys have about as much a shot in my mind, except Eli won the most SX/MX races this year of anyone so how is it that hard to believe?
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RichieW13 9/20/2019 10:14am
9/20/2019 10:14am
early wrote:
People saying "I can't see Tomac winning the SX championship..." You can see Webb, Anderson, Roczen, Musquin winning it? I don't understand that logic. All these...
People saying "I can't see Tomac winning the SX championship..."

You can see Webb, Anderson, Roczen, Musquin winning it?

I don't understand that logic. All these guys have about as much a shot in my mind, except Eli won the most SX/MX races this year of anyone so how is it that hard to believe?
They think he is some kind of head case who can't race under pressure. Yet he won 3 straight MX championships, and he has a 250 SX championship in his trophy case. So I just don't buy that logic. (I generally don't buy that logic about any high end athlete. They used to say John Elway and Peyton Manning were chokers - until they won.)
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hamncheeze 9/20/2019 11:37am
9/20/2019 11:37am Edited Date/Time 9/20/2019 11:39am
As I said earlier, I've been a career-long fan of Tomac, but honestly who else has this shit happen??

2017 - has points lead after amazing comeback, folds up in NJ.
2018 - walking away with A1, crashes, pants fall down, hurts shoulder misses Houston
2019 - just rides around in Dallas and gets 12th. For no reason.



Photo cred: MotoXaddicts/Mark Lester

I really want to believe, but the body of evidence tells me otherwise. I hope I'm wrong. Maybe I'm just laying off on my own internal hype meter so I won't be disappointed again.
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RichieW13 9/20/2019 11:41am
9/20/2019 11:41am
Motofinne wrote:
Nope. Nobody has ever won a premier title in SX in their 5th or later year in the class. Tomac wont break that record, neither will...
Nope. Nobody has ever won a premier title in SX in their 5th or later year in the class.

Tomac wont break that record, neither will Roczen.
RichieW13 wrote:
This logic doesn't hold up for a few reasons. 1) Just because it never happened, doesn't mean it can't happen. Nobody won a race at age...
This logic doesn't hold up for a few reasons.

1) Just because it never happened, doesn't mean it can't happen. Nobody won a race at age 33 (nearly 34) until Brayton did.
2) The history of supercross is covered with guys like McGrath, Carmichael, Dungey; who pretty much dominated the sport. So that made it much tougher for anybody to win their first championship late in their careers.
3) There's nothing magical about a 5th season. Anderson won in his 4th season. If you are a guy like Baggett who has not shown the consistent speed (and health) to be a title contender, you probably won't suddenly get it in your 5th season. But that doesn't apply to Tomac, who has been the fastest guy in supercross over the past 3 years combined.

And it's not an age thing. Tomac will be 27 next year. Dungey won a championship at 27. McGrath won at 28.
Down votes for posting facts?
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RichieW13
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RichieW13 9/20/2019 11:42am
9/20/2019 11:42am Edited Date/Time 9/20/2019 11:44am
hamncheeze wrote:
As I said earlier, I've been a career-long fan of Tomac, but honestly who else has this shit happen?? 2017 - has points lead after amazing...
As I said earlier, I've been a career-long fan of Tomac, but honestly who else has this shit happen??

2017 - has points lead after amazing comeback, folds up in NJ.
2018 - walking away with A1, crashes, pants fall down, hurts shoulder misses Houston
2019 - just rides around in Dallas and gets 12th. For no reason.



Photo cred: MotoXaddicts/Mark Lester

I really want to believe, but the body of evidence tells me otherwise. I hope I'm wrong. Maybe I'm just laying off on my own internal hype meter so I won't be disappointed again.
Musquin has had a handful of weird things happen to him as well.

Anderson's wheel exploded in Salt Lake City in a race where a top 10 finish could have clinched the championship.
Chris_Buehler 9/20/2019 11:51am
9/20/2019 11:51am
RG1 wrote:
I’ll go with form and say no. Every year he makes big mistakes at crucial times and costs himself valuable points. Even in the outdoor titles...
I’ll go with form and say no. Every year he makes big mistakes at crucial times and costs himself valuable points. Even in the outdoor titles he’s won he’s made big mistakes, but in outdoors he has more time to make up for them. Until he shows more consistency both in level of performance and in not making mistakes, I’m out
What's big mistakes has he made in his outdoors titles other than 2017 where, yes, he was wildly inconsistent. His bike broke in 2018. That's it and how do you put that on him?
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hamncheeze
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hamncheeze 9/20/2019 12:20pm
9/20/2019 12:20pm Edited Date/Time 9/20/2019 12:21pm
RichieW13 wrote:
Musquin has had a handful of weird things happen to him as well. Anderson's wheel exploded in Salt Lake City in a race where a top...
Musquin has had a handful of weird things happen to him as well.

Anderson's wheel exploded in Salt Lake City in a race where a top 10 finish could have clinched the championship.
I wasn't even trying to factor in mechanicals. Tomac lost big points in Dallas 2017 with his front brake problem (though I think the problem happened AFTER the crash). But even with that he fought back to get the red plate, then had a tip-over on lap 1 in NJ and folded up. I will never understand to this day how a guy like Tomac could do what he did mid-season in 2017 SX, catch Dungey from behind to get the red plate and then completely fall apart in New Jersey. He should have been absolutely brimming with confidence, he just ran down the best rider ever at managing a points lead. Look what he did the race before in SLC. He should have been able to get back on in NJ and come back to 3rd without issue. But he totally melted down.

Anderson never folded up completely in 2018. Dungey didn't fold up in 2017 even though he was getting beat week after week by Tomac. And Webb....there was no folding up in 2019 at all.

Hey, I get it you/'re a Tomac guy. I am too, but I'm also learning to be more objective with my fandom. For as incredible of a rider as Tomac is, we cannot deny he has some mental moments especially in Supercross. This goes back to his 250 days....SLC 2013. I can spout all the stats about wins too, but the stats that stick out to me more are the number of race wins in a career with no title.

Sure hope Dylan from Pulp doesn't figure out Vital or I'm in trouble.
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early
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early 9/20/2019 12:38pm
9/20/2019 12:38pm
That last sentence Laughing
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Park Boys 9/20/2019 5:31pm
9/20/2019 5:31pm
RichieW13 wrote:
Down votes for posting facts?
I was thinking the same thing, I got two downvotes as well for saying false.
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liver 9/20/2019 5:40pm
9/20/2019 5:40pm
Want= yes
Betting= no
liver
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liver 9/20/2019 5:43pm
9/20/2019 5:43pm
RichieW13 wrote:
Down votes for posting facts?
Park Boys wrote:
I was thinking the same thing, I got two downvotes as well for saying false.
What in the hogpiss are you two ladies clucking about? Likes and dislikes? Lol, what in the actual fuck is happening to our species?
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RichieW13
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RichieW13 9/20/2019 5:50pm
9/20/2019 5:50pm
RichieW13 wrote:
Down votes for posting facts?
Park Boys wrote:
I was thinking the same thing, I got two downvotes as well for saying false.
liver wrote:
What in the hogpiss are you two ladies clucking about? Likes and dislikes? Lol, what in the actual fuck is happening to our species?
I actually don't care if I get downvoted or not. I am just curious what would lead somebody to downvote a non-confrontational post that is basically just stating facts.
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davistld01 9/20/2019 7:00pm
9/20/2019 7:00pm
Tomac is a dyed-in-the-wool outdoors guy. It’s where he shines. He’s way too mental for a SX title...too inconsistent, in my opinion. I do see him winning outdoors in 2020 again though!
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observeroffacts 9/20/2019 7:16pm
9/20/2019 7:16pm
michaelmarino3 wrote:
What do you guys think the AC/ET relationship will be like? I think it will be a good atmosphere for everyone.
AC is the most charismatic rider in sx/Mx right now and ET is the least. It’ll be interesting.
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McG194 9/20/2019 7:45pm
9/20/2019 7:45pm
Park Boys wrote:
It should be his to loose again.
And I look forward to seeing what new and inventive way he loses it again. Laughing
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liver
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liver 9/21/2019 8:20pm
9/21/2019 8:20pm
Park Boys wrote:
I was thinking the same thing, I got two downvotes as well for saying false.
liver wrote:
What in the hogpiss are you two ladies clucking about? Likes and dislikes? Lol, what in the actual fuck is happening to our species?
RichieW13 wrote:
I actually don't care if I get downvoted or not. I am just curious what would lead somebody to downvote a non-confrontational post that is basically...
I actually don't care if I get downvoted or not. I am just curious what would lead somebody to downvote a non-confrontational post that is basically just stating facts.
Suggesting you don’t care what folks think, is an act of caring about what folks think. People who don’t care, never mention it... basic psychology son, stay in school childrens
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RichieW13
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RichieW13 9/21/2019 8:24pm
9/21/2019 8:24pm
liver wrote:
What in the hogpiss are you two ladies clucking about? Likes and dislikes? Lol, what in the actual fuck is happening to our species?
RichieW13 wrote:
I actually don't care if I get downvoted or not. I am just curious what would lead somebody to downvote a non-confrontational post that is basically...
I actually don't care if I get downvoted or not. I am just curious what would lead somebody to downvote a non-confrontational post that is basically just stating facts.
liver wrote:
Suggesting you don’t care what folks think, is an act of caring about what folks think. People who don’t care, never mention it... basic psychology son...
Suggesting you don’t care what folks think, is an act of caring about what folks think. People who don’t care, never mention it... basic psychology son, stay in school childrens
I didn't say I don't care what people think.
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Mit12 9/22/2019 5:01pm
9/22/2019 5:01pm
If Webb, Marvin, Anderson and Roczen get injured Tomac could win it. All kidding aside it amazes me that Tomac has not gotten the job done in SX. This is the reason they race, the best rider wins not necessarily the fastest rider.
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kpiper 9/22/2019 5:56pm
9/22/2019 5:56pm
One thing for sure is that it is not going to be easier in 2020 then it was in prior years for him to win the title. There is plenty of competition and the pressure he must feel builds each year he does not win it.
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BikeGuy321 9/22/2019 6:36pm
9/22/2019 6:36pm
He can win the tittle this year but only if his starts are consistently better. CW2 took a play out of the old Dungey playbook last year and won the tittle by always starting up front. Outdoors, Tomac is able to make up 4-5 seconds per lap if he wants to, but that's not possible in SX with the tighter one-lined tracks.

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