East vs West, checking

davis224
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davis224 6/19/2020 2:53pm
6/19/2020 2:53pm
davis224 wrote:
Unfortunately all we'll get at the showdown is who is better between Forkner and McElrath, Sexton and Ferrandis will be on cruise control.
Derpin' DJ wrote:
Don't think so. There's not enough of a gap to cruise
But there is a gap. If Ferrandis finds himself directly behind Forkner or Sexton behind McElrath, they probably aren't going for a pass. They just need to watch out for spoilers like Mcadoo, Lawrence, and Cooper. Cruise set to 85%, not 100% (unless they have to come through the pack, but they'll stop when they hit their rivals)
philG
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philG 6/19/2020 2:59pm
6/19/2020 2:59pm
motomike137 wrote:
i don't think you can draw any solid conclusions here unless they were all racing each other week in and week out.
And this is why its become a waste of time. You get guys moving up cos they were top 2 in a regional, and they only race the other guys once (or sometimes twice) .. its a gamble for the teams, how do they know.

Sexton won cos Forkner bailed , pretty much, and he is on the weaker coast IMO... I get that it lets more guys break in at the bottom end , but having a half assed top end of the field sucks now.


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kage173
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kage173 6/20/2020 7:09am
6/20/2020 7:09am
motomike137 wrote:
i don't think you can draw any solid conclusions here unless they were all racing each other week in and week out.
philG wrote:
And this is why its become a waste of time. You get guys moving up cos they were top 2 in a regional, and they only...
And this is why its become a waste of time. You get guys moving up cos they were top 2 in a regional, and they only race the other guys once (or sometimes twice) .. its a gamble for the teams, how do they know.

Sexton won cos Forkner bailed , pretty much, and he is on the weaker coast IMO... I get that it lets more guys break in at the bottom end , but having a half assed top end of the field sucks now.


The other way to look at it is that since its cut into 2 regions, the factories get to see a broader range of riders and make a better choice.
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agn5009 6/20/2020 7:38am
6/20/2020 7:38am
KX500 wrote:
West is certainly deeper and the final race/shootout will help answer the question of who is fastest, McElrath/Sexton, Forkner/Ferrandis?
One race doesn't prove who's faster. What if Colt Nichols wins this week? Does that mean hes the fastest 250 sx rider? Of course not.

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philG
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philG 6/20/2020 1:09pm
6/20/2020 1:09pm
kage173 wrote:
The other way to look at it is that since its cut into 2 regions, the factories get to see a broader range of riders and...
The other way to look at it is that since its cut into 2 regions, the factories get to see a broader range of riders and make a better choice.
But your guy that gets beat on the East might be better than your guy on the West that wins..

I don't know the answer, but staying as it is doesn't fill me with glee
RalphS
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RalphS 6/20/2020 1:26pm
6/20/2020 1:26pm
NateDawg wrote:
Obviously the West is deeper this year, but I think people are also forgetting that Marchbanks and Jordan Smith are out right now. The East looks...
Obviously the West is deeper this year, but I think people are also forgetting that Marchbanks and Jordan Smith are out right now. The East looks weaker than it actually was this year.
+ Hampshire & jmart
Racerman967
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Racerman967 6/20/2020 1:39pm
6/20/2020 1:39pm
Having more guys in the points doesn’t make it deeper. It just means after the top 15 it is just a crap shoot. West has more fast guys who consistently make the mains. The second 10 guys in the east are all privateers getting lapped
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smee113
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smee113 6/20/2020 2:34pm
6/20/2020 2:34pm
The East might be deeper with a healthy field, but it's been devastated by injuries. Marchbanks, J Martin, Nichols, Hampshire, and Smith have all missed races, and because of that; there's a very real possibility that Shimoda will finish 3rd for the season without scoring a single podium.
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Antonioni
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Antonioni 6/20/2020 4:31pm
6/20/2020 4:31pm
Antonioni wrote:
"[i]With Sexton and Ferrandis both playing it safe[/i]" How ? There is not so much room for that. If "playing it safe" is to get a...
"With Sexton and Ferrandis both playing it safe"

How ? There is not so much room for that. If "playing it safe" is to get a podium... Yes, but otherwise...

If Sexton finish 4th while McElrath win, Sexton lose the title. Exactly the same for Ferrandis with Forkner. There is only one place to get those 21pts (the minimum to be sure to get the championship for both).
dirtworldmx wrote:
I'm not saying it won't be exciting, especially if the points leaders get bad starts, but it really won't prove much. You really think Dylan or...
I'm not saying it won't be exciting, especially if the points leaders get bad starts, but it really won't prove much. You really think Dylan or Chase will challenge the guys in front of them if they are comfortably in a position to lock up their titles?

Personally, I will be judging which coast is faster and deeper by the qualifying times.
You imply that you regret that they will not challenge their opponents if they are just behind, but... in those situations (as they aren't tied in points) it's always like that !
Also as I said, if they lock up with a 3rd or 4th place, it's not "playing it safe".
If they are all in the top5 (by far the most likely), the main idea for Sexton and Ferrandis will be : "at worst only one rider between me and my championship opponent".
The probabilities during the Main that they will be in position to lock up comfortably their titles, are very low. It's a probability fact.
And with the dynamic of the race due to the positions after the first turns, as the mishaps, racing incidents, contacts between them, aggressive attempt, so much can happen, so much unknow and only 6pts between them... And if they playing it safe they would expose themselves to be passed as there will be too many fast riders with very good reasons to pass.
There will be nothing of comfortable for them.
dirtworldmx 6/20/2020 4:32pm
6/20/2020 4:32pm
Antonioni wrote:
You imply that you regret that they will not challenge their opponents if they are just behind, but... in those situations (as they aren't tied in...
You imply that you regret that they will not challenge their opponents if they are just behind, but... in those situations (as they aren't tied in points) it's always like that !
Also as I said, if they lock up with a 3rd or 4th place, it's not "playing it safe".
If they are all in the top5 (by far the most likely), the main idea for Sexton and Ferrandis will be : "at worst only one rider between me and my championship opponent".
The probabilities during the Main that they will be in position to lock up comfortably their titles, are very low. It's a probability fact.
And with the dynamic of the race due to the positions after the first turns, as the mishaps, racing incidents, contacts between them, aggressive attempt, so much can happen, so much unknow and only 6pts between them... And if they playing it safe they would expose themselves to be passed as there will be too many fast riders with very good reasons to pass.
There will be nothing of comfortable for them.
ok
Antonioni
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Antonioni 6/21/2020 5:11am
6/21/2020 5:11am Edited Date/Time 6/21/2020 8:55am
Antonioni wrote:
I calculated top2 and top5 of each SLC rounds (for an explanation of the calculation, see the first post of this topic), here only rounds ran...
I calculated top2 and top5 of each SLC rounds (for an explanation of the calculation, see the first post of this topic), here only rounds ran in rather fair/relevant conditions.

East - SLC2 (J.Martin and Marchbanks were still here),
- "top2-250East" was 1,99% slower than "top2-450"
- "top5-250East" was 1,45% slower than "top5-450"

West - SLC4,
- "top2-250West" was 1,11% slower than "top2-450"
- "top5-250West" was 1,59% slower than "top5-450"

West - SLC5,
- "top2-250West" was 0,95% slower than "top2-450"
- "top5-250West" was 1,24% slower than "top5-450"

East - SLC6
- "top2-250East" was 1,89% slower than "top2-450"
- "top5-250East" was 2,47% slower than "top5-450"
One of the noteworthy things from this, it's that the pair Sexton/McElrath is almost 1% slower than the pair Forkner/Ferrandis (for an average lap time of 45s, it means 0,45s by lap).

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