Posts
220
Joined
6/11/2009
Location
Engelberg
CH
Edited Date/Time
6/21/2020 8:55am
Beyond the density of top pilots, contenders for podiums, etc.
When I read this :
I found that rather interesting.
Yesterday I already note the relatively larger gap between the bests qualif lap times for both classes, relatively to the "East SLC" rounds.
As we get the most accurate truth of the performance level that during the Main races, I calculated the average lap times during the whole final of the best two racers of each category (why two ? because clearly each class is dominated by two riders : Tomac/Webb, McElrath/Sexton, Forkner/Ferrandis), and I calculated the difference between 450 vs 250East, then 450 vs 250West.
For the East I chose only one final, the one with the most similar track conditions with yesterday (as it's the only final of the West). So it's SLC2 (also as the lap times of the two differents layout SLC2/SLC4 are very similar, it's avoid well this bias).
The average of the two best rider average lap times of the whole SLC2 finals (East) :
- 450 it was 46,513
- 250East it was 47,458
At SLC2 the gap was 0,945s
For SLC4 (West) :
- 450 it was 47,357
- 250West it was 47,890
At SLC4 the gap was 0,533s
Overall, of course it's not a significant sampling enough, but from here top West is faster of 0,4s (note, it goes fully to the inverse of the, well-know "not so revelant", qualif times... Also IMO, as it was the first race since a long time for West riders while the 450 pilots are perfectly sharpened to these SLC rounds, the gap between East/West could be a bit bigger next rounds).
To present my calculation in a different way : at SLC2, the Top2-East was 2,0% slower than the "450 Top2". While at SLC4, the Top2-West was 1,1% slower than the "450 Top2".
And as clearly West offer more podium contenders. It's deeper, stronger.
When I read this :
I found that rather interesting.
Yesterday I already note the relatively larger gap between the bests qualif lap times for both classes, relatively to the "East SLC" rounds.
As we get the most accurate truth of the performance level that during the Main races, I calculated the average lap times during the whole final of the best two racers of each category (why two ? because clearly each class is dominated by two riders : Tomac/Webb, McElrath/Sexton, Forkner/Ferrandis), and I calculated the difference between 450 vs 250East, then 450 vs 250West.
For the East I chose only one final, the one with the most similar track conditions with yesterday (as it's the only final of the West). So it's SLC2 (also as the lap times of the two differents layout SLC2/SLC4 are very similar, it's avoid well this bias).
The average of the two best rider average lap times of the whole SLC2 finals (East) :
- 450 it was 46,513
- 250East it was 47,458
At SLC2 the gap was 0,945s
For SLC4 (West) :
- 450 it was 47,357
- 250West it was 47,890
At SLC4 the gap was 0,533s
Overall, of course it's not a significant sampling enough, but from here top West is faster of 0,4s (note, it goes fully to the inverse of the, well-know "not so revelant", qualif times... Also IMO, as it was the first race since a long time for West riders while the 450 pilots are perfectly sharpened to these SLC rounds, the gap between East/West could be a bit bigger next rounds).
To present my calculation in a different way : at SLC2, the Top2-East was 2,0% slower than the "450 Top2". While at SLC4, the Top2-West was 1,1% slower than the "450 Top2".
And as clearly West offer more podium contenders. It's deeper, stronger.
Just my opinion, but I think East has a deeper talent field this year.
The Shop
I quite agree on the result but it is difficult to analyze:
1. I think it would be better to take Forkner's time, Cooper was a bit off, probably a bit due to the huge crash he had like 10 days ago with a mechanical.
2. Then you would see that in this analysis the 250 would almost match the 450. But here comes another problem, Tomac had a full race in the pack.
That is why maybe it would be more accurate to see the dfference between the winners only for these particular races.
1. Forkner
2. Mcelrath
3. Ferrandis
4. Sexton
5. Cooper
East - SLC2 (J.Martin and Marchbanks were still here),
- "top2-250East" was 1,99% slower than "top2-450"
- "top5-250East" was 1,45% slower than "top5-450"
West - SLC4,
- "top2-250West" was 1,11% slower than "top2-450"
- "top5-250West" was 1,59% slower than "top5-450"
West - SLC5,
- "top2-250West" was 0,95% slower than "top2-450"
- "top5-250West" was 1,24% slower than "top5-450"
East - SLC6
- "top2-250East" was 1,89% slower than "top2-450"
- "top5-250East" was 2,47% slower than "top5-450"
The mixed classes makes the title races more volatile and interesting, but it would have been nice to see a real East vs West showdown earlier in the SLC series.
2. Forkner
3. Sexton
4. Mcelrath
5. Cooper
There I fixed it for you. (I think sexton and forkner is going to be a damn good match up but gave forkner the edge because of his performance Against sexton last season)
How ? There is not so much room for that. If "playing it safe" is to get a podium... Yes, but otherwise...
If Sexton finish 4th while McElrath win, Sexton lose the title. Exactly the same for Ferrandis with Forkner. There is only one place to get those 21pts (the minimum to be sure to get the championship for both).
Pit Row
If Jett gets a start, he can play a major spoiler.
I think it confirms the eye test.
Top 10 West from the most recent west SLC race:
1) Forkner - Factory Kawi (PC)
2) Ferrandis - Factory Yamaha (Star)
3) J. Lawrence - Factory Honda (Geico)
4) Mcadoo - Factory Kawi (PC)
5) Mosiman - Factory Husq. (Rockstar)
6) Cooper - Factory Yamaha (Star)
7) H. Lawrence - Factory Honda (Geico)
8) Hartranft - Factory KTM (TLD)
9) Drake - Factory KTM (TLD)
10) Craig - Factory Honda (Geico)
Also of note: Alex Martin - Factory Suzuki (JGR)
Top 10 East from the most recent east SLC race:
1) Sexton - Factory Honda (Geico)
2) McElrath - Factory Yamaha (Star)
3) Nichols - Factory Yamaha (Star)
4) Brown - Factory KTM (TLD)
5) Shimoda - Factory Honda (Geico)
6) Peters - Privateer Honda (Phoenix)
7) Lopes - Privateer Yamaha (Club MX)
8) Blose - Privateer Honda (FXR/Chap)
9) Locuricio - Privateer Kawasaki (Wossner)
10) Marquier - Privateer Honda (Manluk)
East is deep? Half the top 10 is privateer bikes on small teams. 4th and 5th are rookies. West has all A-level team bikes and riders in the top 10 with another quality rider having a bad night (A.Martin, 21st)
FWIW: I'm using the term 'factory' for the A-level 250 teams as in 'these are the officially backed 250 teams for each brand'. Let's not get bogged down in semantics, there is a CLEAR different between the teams I listed as 'factory' and everyone else in the 250 ranks.
East certainly doesn't seem deeper from a rider, results, and watching at home POV.
West: https://archives.amasupercross.com/xml/SX/events/S2075/S2F1PRESS.pdf
East: https://results.amasupercross.com/xml/SX/events/S2080/S2F1PRESS.pdf
Personally, I will be judging which coast is faster and deeper by the qualifying times.
Star: Cooper/Nichols?
PC: only Mcadoo
Geico: Craig,Jlaw Hlaw and Shimoda.
Who will help and is willing to ride a wide bike or mess his start and the rival his start?
All guys got nothing to loose.
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