East vs West, checking

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6/11/2020 5:20 AM
Edited Date/Time: 6/20/2020 5:54 AM

Beyond the density of top pilots, contenders for podiums, etc.

When I read this : Photo
I found that rather interesting.
Yesterday I already note the relatively larger gap between the bests qualif lap times for both classes, relatively to the "East SLC" rounds.

As we get the most accurate truth of the performance level that during the Main races, I calculated the average lap times during the whole final of the best two racers of each category (why two ? because clearly each class is dominated by two riders : Tomac/Webb, McElrath/Sexton, Forkner/Ferrandis), and I calculated the difference between 450 vs 250East, then 450 vs 250West.
For the East I chose only one final, the one with the most similar track conditions with yesterday (as it's the only final of the West). So it's SLC2 (also as the lap times of the two differents layout SLC2/SLC4 are very similar, it's avoid well this bias).

The average of the two best rider average lap times of the whole SLC2 finals (East) :
- 450 it was 46,513
- 250East it was 47,458
At SLC2 the gap was 0,945s

For SLC4 (West) :
- 450 it was 47,357
- 250West it was 47,890
At SLC4 the gap was 0,533s

Overall, of course it's not a significant sampling enough, but from here top West is faster of 0,4s (note, it goes fully to the inverse of the, well-know "not so revelant", qualif times... Also IMO, as it was the first race since a long time for West riders while the 450 pilots are perfectly sharpened to these SLC rounds, the gap between East/West could be a bit bigger next rounds).
To present my calculation in a different way : at SLC2, the Top2-East was 2,0% slower than the "450 Top2". While at SLC4, the Top2-West was 1,1% slower than the "450 Top2".

And as clearly West offer more podium contenders. It's deeper, stronger.

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6/11/2020 5:40 AM

West is certainly deeper and the final race/shootout will help answer the question of who is fastest, McElrath/Sexton, Forkner/Ferrandis?

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2016 YZ250X

6/11/2020 7:03 AM

Sexton and Shane would still kill it in the west. West is just deeper. Sexton would still rip through the pack. CC got 7th after being dead last.

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6/11/2020 7:13 AM

After seven rounds each, East coast has 40 riders who have scored points and West has 30. Before the series restart, West after six rounds had 29 riders who had scored points and East after only four rounds had 35 riders who had scored points.

Just my opinion, but I think East has a deeper talent field this year.

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6/11/2020 8:07 AM

All I know is that the West racing was far more exciting / entertaining. I also feel this was the best track design yet from the Utah SX Series.

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6/11/2020 9:01 AM

WASHED him with her Monster tears, KYLE.

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6/11/2020 9:57 AM


I quite agree on the result but it is difficult to analyze:
1. I think it would be better to take Forkner's time, Cooper was a bit off, probably a bit due to the huge crash he had like 10 days ago with a mechanical.
2. Then you would see that in this analysis the 250 would almost match the 450. But here comes another problem, Tomac had a full race in the pack.

That is why maybe it would be more accurate to see the dfference between the winners only for these particular races.
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6/11/2020 10:01 AM

ML512 wrote:

After seven rounds each, East coast has 40 riders who have scored points and West has 30. Before the series restart, West after six rounds had 29 riders who had scored points and East after only four rounds had 35 riders who had scored points.

Just my opinion, but I think East has a deeper talent field this year.

Maybe holistically, but certainly not at the top

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6/11/2020 10:02 AM

All I know is I cannot WAIT for the showdown. Super stoked Forkner came back on fire but more so very impressed with McAdoo. That kid really busted his ass during the break and is coming off injury, looked like a whole new rider.

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MCM2 name - RXR_ProKawi24
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6/11/2020 10:09 AM

That’s what makes all of this so fun. I think the west has a deeper top talent pool. While the East has a deeper 2nd tier pool. Just for fun for the showdown prediction.

1. Forkner
2. Mcelrath
3. Ferrandis
4. Sexton
5. Cooper

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6/19/2020 2:39 AM
Edited Date/Time: 6/20/2020 2:59 PM

I calculated top2 and top5 of each SLC rounds (for an explanation of the calculation, see the first post of this topic), here only rounds ran in rather fair/relevant conditions.

East - SLC2 (J.Martin and Marchbanks were still here),
- "top2-250East" was 1,99% slower than "top2-450"
- "top5-250East" was 1,45% slower than "top5-450"

West - SLC4,
- "top2-250West" was 1,11% slower than "top2-450"
- "top5-250West" was 1,59% slower than "top5-450"

West - SLC5,
- "top2-250West" was 0,95% slower than "top2-450"
- "top5-250West" was 1,24% slower than "top5-450"

East - SLC6
- "top2-250East" was 1,89% slower than "top2-450"
- "top5-250East" was 2,47% slower than "top5-450"

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6/19/2020 2:50 AM

Unfortunately all we'll get at the showdown is who is better between Forkner and McElrath, Sexton and Ferrandis will be on cruise control.

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6/19/2020 3:41 AM

I do not perceive this Showdown like that. The more likely is still a very lively Main, mainly because none of them will accept the 4th place (and lower) if the 3 others are ahead. There will not so much race standings order who will be neutral for these championships.

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6/19/2020 3:51 AM

davis224 wrote:

Unfortunately all we'll get at the showdown is who is better between Forkner and McElrath, Sexton and Ferrandis will be on cruise control.

Don't think so. There's not enough of a gap to cruise

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James = #7. Malcolm = #27
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6/19/2020 6:05 AM

davis224 wrote:

Unfortunately all we'll get at the showdown is who is better between Forkner and McElrath, Sexton and Ferrandis will be on cruise control.

Derpin' DJ wrote:

Don't think so. There's not enough of a gap to cruise

Agreed. Plus with fork/ Sexton age, attitude they want to win.

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6/19/2020 6:58 AM
Edited Date/Time: 6/19/2020 7:01 AM

With Sexton and Ferrandis both playing it safe, the closest we will get to a real showdown is the timed qualifying.

The mixed classes makes the title races more volatile and interesting, but it would have been nice to see a real East vs West showdown earlier in the SLC series.

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6/19/2020 7:09 AM

Zycki11 wrote:

That’s what makes all of this so fun. I think the west has a deeper top talent pool. While the East has a deeper 2nd tier pool. Just for fun for the showdown prediction.

1. Forkner
2. Mcelrath
3. Ferrandis
4. Sexton
5. Cooper

1. Ferrandis
2. Forkner
3. Sexton
4. Mcelrath
5. Cooper
There I fixed it for you. (I think sexton and forkner is going to be a damn good match up but gave forkner the edge because of his performance Against sexton last season)

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6/19/2020 7:28 AM
Edited Date/Time: 6/19/2020 11:02 AM

"With Sexton and Ferrandis both playing it safe"

How ? There is not so much room for that. If "playing it safe" is to get a podium... Yes, but otherwise...

If Sexton finish 4th while McElrath win, Sexton lose the title. Exactly the same for Ferrandis with Forkner. There is only one place to get those 21pts (the minimum to be sure to get the championship for both).

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6/19/2020 7:28 AM

I was playing around with the numbers and found an interesting (and plausible) scenarios. Say the order is Forkner, McElrath, Cooper, Sexton, Ferrandis. Yamaha would be second in both titles. But if McElrath passed Forkner, he would deliver both titles to Yamaha.

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6/19/2020 10:19 AM

ML512 wrote:

After seven rounds each, East coast has 40 riders who have scored points and West has 30. Before the series restart, West after six rounds had 29 riders who had scored points and East after only four rounds had 35 riders who had scored points.

Just my opinion, but I think East has a deeper talent field this year.

IMO, those numbers reflect the weakness at the top of the East field (mostly due to injuries) this season. This has allowed more guys to qualify into main events just due to the sheer randomness of the lesser "skilled" riders. Just a different viewpoint....in the big picture none of this really matters right? You can only race the guys on the gate.

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Old MXer turned Superfan.

6/19/2020 10:28 AM

I don't think it would be crazy to say the top 5 could only have one 250 East rider when looking at the depth of 250 West.

If Jett gets a start, he can play a major spoiler.

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6/19/2020 10:34 AM

ML512 wrote:

After seven rounds each, East coast has 40 riders who have scored points and West has 30. Before the series restart, West after six rounds had 29 riders who had scored points and East after only four rounds had 35 riders who had scored points.

Just my opinion, but I think East has a deeper talent field this year.

Photo
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6/19/2020 11:23 AM

i don't think you can draw any solid conclusions here unless they were all racing each other week in and week out.

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6/19/2020 11:39 AM

Very cool analysis OP. Thanks for sharing.

I think it confirms the eye test.

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6/19/2020 12:00 PM
Edited Date/Time: 6/19/2020 1:10 PM

How is this even a comparison?

Top 10 West from the most recent west SLC race:
1) Forkner - Factory Kawi (PC)
2) Ferrandis - Factory Yamaha (Star)
3) J. Lawrence - Factory Honda (Geico)
4) Mcadoo - Factory Kawi (PC)
5) Mosiman - Factory Husq. (Rockstar)
6) Cooper - Factory Yamaha (Star)
7) H. Lawrence - Factory Honda (Geico)
8) Hartranft - Factory KTM (TLD)
9) Drake - Factory KTM (TLD)
10) Craig - Factory Honda (Geico)
Also of note: Alex Martin - Factory Suzuki (JGR)

Top 10 East from the most recent east SLC race:
1) Sexton - Factory Honda (Geico)
2) McElrath - Factory Yamaha (Star)
3) Nichols - Factory Yamaha (Star)
4) Brown - Factory KTM (TLD)
5) Shimoda - Factory Honda (Geico)
6) Peters - Privateer Honda (Phoenix)
7) Lopes - Privateer Yamaha (Club MX)
8) Blose - Privateer Honda (FXR/Chap)
9) Locuricio - Privateer Kawasaki (Wossner)
10) Marquier - Privateer Honda (Manluk)

East is deep? Half the top 10 is privateer bikes on small teams. 4th and 5th are rookies. West has all A-level team bikes and riders in the top 10 with another quality rider having a bad night (A.Martin, 21st)

FWIW: I'm using the term 'factory' for the A-level 250 teams as in 'these are the officially backed 250 teams for each brand'. Let's not get bogged down in semantics, there is a CLEAR different between the teams I listed as 'factory' and everyone else in the 250 ranks.

East certainly doesn't seem deeper from a rider, results, and watching at home POV.

West: https://archives.amasupercross.com/xml/SX/events/S2075/S2F1PRESS.pdf
East: https://results.amasupercross.com/xml/SX/events/S2080/S2F1PRESS.pdf

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6/19/2020 12:08 PM

Antonioni wrote:

"With Sexton and Ferrandis both playing it safe"

How ? There is not so much room for that. If "playing it safe" is to get a podium... Yes, but otherwise...

If Sexton finish 4th while McElrath win, Sexton lose the title. Exactly the same for Ferrandis with Forkner. There is only one place to get those 21pts (the minimum to be sure to get the championship for both).

I'm not saying it won't be exciting, especially if the points leaders get bad starts, but it really won't prove much. You really think Dylan or Chase will challenge the guys in front of them if they are comfortably in a position to lock up their titles?

Personally, I will be judging which coast is faster and deeper by the qualifying times.

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6/19/2020 12:18 PM

Did someone say the East is deeper then the west really 😂

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6/19/2020 12:27 PM

Zycki11 wrote:

That’s what makes all of this so fun. I think the west has a deeper top talent pool. While the East has a deeper 2nd tier pool. Just for fun for the showdown prediction.

1. Forkner
2. Mcelrath
3. Ferrandis
4. Sexton
5. Cooper

joe velna wrote:

1. Ferrandis
2. Forkner
3. Sexton
4. Mcelrath
5. Cooper
There I fixed it for you. (I think sexton and forkner is going to be a damn good match up but gave forkner the edge because of his performance Against sexton last season)

Jett Lawrence can conceivably win this.

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If the glass is half full it's twice as big as it needs to be.

6/19/2020 12:58 PM

West is definitely deeper this season. Forkner and Cooper were the deciding factors. Without those two deciding to ride west, it wouldn't be close.

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6/19/2020 1:09 PM

What about team orders?

Star: Cooper/Nichols?
PC: only Mcadoo
Geico: Craig,Jlaw Hlaw and Shimoda.

Who will help and is willing to ride a wide bike or mess his start and the rival his start?

All guys got nothing to loose.

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