Early Outdoor Championship Talk

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3/26/2018 10:19 AM

If you were the betting type, who would you be putting money in for the 2018 AMA National Championship?

I think this is the first year I genuinely don't have one title favorite in the 450 class. Anderson has been on a consistent fast pace in SX and is on his way to his first 450 SX championship. Musquin is always better outdoors than in SX and is ripping in SX right now. And of course there's Tomac who won last year but has had a roller coaster of a SX season.

I kinda have a good feeling about Marvin for outdoors this year. Though I hope Anderson and Tomac kill it so maybe we can have a shot at the MXoN.

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3/26/2018 10:25 AM
Edited Date/Time: 3/26/2018 10:28 AM

If Marvin can ride at the level he did for the last 4 rounds of 2017 then he will be tough to beat. Obviously most would put Tomac as the big favourite but even as a dedicated fan of the #3 I am having a hard time watching this inconsistency get worse, not better. Anderson will be solid as well, but he's had more injury problems in the outdoors his whole career, versus SX. Baggett also in with a shot, but the status of his wrist makes me put him in the questionable category. If he can start the season healthy then he's solid. Ken Roczen is the wild card....who knows how his arm strength will be after he recovers, and he essentially has zero time on the Honda as an outdoor bike. Hard to put the guy who DOMINATED 2016 as #5 here but that's my feeling. I think Barcia and Webb will be very competitive as well, and Deano too but ultimately they are just below the first 5 if everyone is starting out (relatively) healthy.

One thing to remember, this is a new bike for the KTM and Husky guys, and there might be some teething sessions early in the season.

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Old MXer turned Superfan.

3/26/2018 10:33 AM

who knows how the field will look like come nationals, heck Osborne might have an outside chance on the 450 with everyone recovering from the 450 Sx season.....

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"Shifting gears and passing queers" GL

3/26/2018 10:46 AM

You can’t even guess with today’s talent pool. In Supercross we have ONE guy that’s had any resemblance of consistency. MM has been in recent weeks, but other than that, everyone else has been all over the map.

Pure speed goes to Tomac, BUT he’s starting to resemble JS7. If he stays upright, he wins. If he crashes, no win and finishes mid pack.

Dungey retired a year to early. He could have won both titles again this year.

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“Let the Good Times Roll”

3/26/2018 10:46 AM

JOE_SPROCKETS#1 wrote:

who knows how the field will look like come nationals, heck Osborne might have an outside chance on the 450 with everyone ...more

Yeah I totally forgot about Wacko Zacho on the 450. He'll be interesting to watch. Can he come in strong like Roczen or Tomac and win races in his first season on a 450 (or a title like Ken)? Or does he struggle like Coop?

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Old MXer turned Superfan.

3/26/2018 11:16 AM

herlings

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3/26/2018 11:17 AM

I got roczen as fav then bagget if he's 100% and musquin has the speed but he seems quick to give up and tomac is going to do something dumb Anderson does'nt seem to have the speed the others do outdoors but the man never gives up

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3/26/2018 11:21 AM

I'd like Marvin to take it.
Tomac probably has the most speed of all but would bet on Anderson.
I don't see Roczen being a 100% to compete for the championship although I hope he proves me wrong.

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3/26/2018 11:24 AM

5thgearpinnedJB65 wrote:

I got roczen as fav then bagget if he's 100% and musquin has the speed but he seems quick to give up and tomac is going to do ...more

Anderson doesn't have the speed? dude beat the Bullet (Herlings) at the mxdn not to long ago

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"Shifting gears and passing queers" GL

3/26/2018 11:29 AM

Will be a lot of riders with "unfinished" business (2018 SX season) on their minds, all vying for a spot on the MXdN team too. Ando might have a little championship hangover if he wins the SX championship. Musquin, Baggett, Roczen, Barcia and Tomac will all be extremely unforgiving. Betting? Musquin, but would like to be proved wrong by Baggett.

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3/26/2018 11:46 AM

If he is 100% healthy, and stays that way, I think that Baggett will have a good shot at it.

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3/26/2018 12:08 PM
Edited Date/Time: 3/26/2018 12:11 PM

If his arm is healthy, Roczen.

Roczen dismantled the 450 class outdoors in 2016, easily winning 20 out of 24 motos.

Obviously a lot has happened since, but Roczen is an animal outdoors.

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3/26/2018 12:17 PM

Baggett. Without his injury he might have beaten Tomac last year

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3/26/2018 12:35 PM

JOE_SPROCKETS#1 wrote:

Anderson doesn't have the speed? dude beat the Bullet (Herlings) at the mxdn not to long ago

That's a good point but I still think he's a hair off speed wise outdoors

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3/26/2018 1:28 PM

JOE_SPROCKETS#1 wrote:

who knows how the field will look like come nationals, heck Osborne might have an outside chance on the 450 with everyone ...more

Didn't realise this, is it confirmed Osbourne to 450s for outdoors? I thought he would have tried to defend his 250 title.

Will be great to see him on a 450 though if he does step up, dudes a beast outdoors.

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Current: 2010 TM 250MX
Previous: 2012 KX450f, 2009 K8 RM250, 2012 RMZ250, 2008 YZ125

3/26/2018 1:32 PM
Edited Date/Time: 3/26/2018 1:33 PM

450's - Tomac

250's - Plessinger

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3/26/2018 1:37 PM

450 - Tomac
250 - Forkner

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the funniest thing about this particular signature is that by the time you realise it doesn't say anything it's to late to stop reading it

3/26/2018 2:36 PM

crusty_xx wrote:

Baggett. Without his injury he might have beaten Tomac last year

Have a hard time seeing Blake in an honest contention spot this year, personally. Last year she showed some great speed and rides but unfortunately kinda did what he's done for a while which is having to race at below 100% due to a nagging injury, which causes inconsistencies.

Since he's dealing with a other wrist injury now, it's tough to say if hell back on it 100% come national time. Im rooting for him though, no doubt! The more guys the better.

Totally forgot about Zacho, too! Though I wouldn't pick him as a title favorite this year, he's definitely one of those guys that I can see snagging a moto win.

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3/26/2018 2:40 PM

I am going to go out on a limb here....

450 - Barcia
250 - Pleassinger

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Current rides: 2020 CRF450RWE and 2019 TC300
Occasional ride for VMX: 1985 CR500RF
Adventure/Road bike: CRF1000L

3/26/2018 2:40 PM

Dare I say it...I think Webb will be in the mix this year. I’m not sure if it’s in his contract or not but you can’t count out Barcia either. But like others I think ET3, moosecan and El Hombre will be tough to beat. Now for the 250 class...we’re gonna have a great season with AP23, AC92, AF24 & ZO16

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2011 Yamaha YZ 250 -MX
1996 Yamaha Banshee 350 -Trails
1982 Chevy S10
2005 Pontiac GTO -451rwhp

3/26/2018 2:54 PM

eric513anderson wrote:

Dare I say it...I think Webb will be in the mix this year. I’m not sure if it’s in his contract or not but you can’t count out ...more

Zack's on a 450 this year.

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“I’m not Swap…”

3/26/2018 3:03 PM
Edited Date/Time: 3/26/2018 3:05 PM

I see the above 250 picks. I’m looking for big things out of J-Mart this summer. I find it weird no one even mentions the former 2 time mx250 champ anymore as a contender?

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"Shifting gears and passing queers" GL

3/26/2018 3:06 PM

crusty_xx wrote:

Baggett. Without his injury he might have beaten Tomac last year

I hope he hits the outdoors fit, that was a proper shock last year .

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3/26/2018 3:16 PM

I didn't realize Osborne was riding the 450....

Right now he might have more heart than any rider of either class. The other guy with guaranteed will is Roczen, but he keeps getting hurt. Don't forget how how long "the real 338" has been around either, and the momentum he's built lately. My wild prediction is that it'll be between him and Anderson with the other fast guys suffering from lack of will, talent, or both.

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3/26/2018 4:27 PM

Tomac, he had a horrible year for what he is capable of last year and still won it. Be nice to see Musquin, Baggett and Anderson stay healthy though all year. All three of those guys could have said it could have been theirs had it not been for injuries and missed races. Bagget is the only one I feel could match Tomac in raw speed when he is on. Roczen is the ultimate X factor, how healthy will he be? As bad as he is indoors with injuries I would argue he crashes less than anyone in the world outdoors at his level. His last 24 Moto season in 2016 he had zero crashes. So at least he should stay healthy.

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3/26/2018 4:38 PM

JOE_SPROCKETS#1 wrote:

I see the above 250 picks. I’m looking for big things out of J-Mart this summer. I find it weird no one even mentions the ...more

Yea Jmart has been looking fast the last couple weeks in supercross I think he's going to dominate the outdoors

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3/26/2018 6:41 PM

Osborne
Ac

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3/26/2018 7:25 PM

If Tomac could learn to back it off to 9/10 once he has the lead he could win it.

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21.5 350 XC-F
96' XR600r

3/26/2018 7:32 PM

crusty_xx wrote:

Baggett. Without his injury he might have beaten Tomac last year

aeffertz wrote:

Have a hard time seeing Blake in an honest contention spot this year, personally. Last year she showed some great speed and ...more

Yeah it very much depends on his injury that he has now and also that he stays injury free.
But he can do it. He finished only 19 points behind Tomac. After round 1 at Hangtown he was already more than 19 points behind. And he was the only guy to finish ALL 24 motos inside the top 10.

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3/26/2018 7:47 PM

Plessinger
Anderson

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