Deepest field ever? Statistical analysis

motoman154__
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motoman154__
Clickbait title, I know. You gotta do what you gotta do.

I started making a spreadsheet with some stats to show how deep the 450 field is this year (my idea of fun, apparently), and it got difficult because there are so many ways to measure how "legit" someone is. So I wanted to see what y'all think is most important when measuring how many legit dudes are racing. Championships? "Big boy" championships (anything other than 250SX)? Race wins, or having more than a certain number of race wins? Points finishes in top 3?

You've got 15 or 16 guys (is Justin Hill racing?) lining up at H1 who've won championships. 10 guys have won big boy championships. 11 guys have won multiple championships. You have some champions who have only a handful of 450SX top 5s (bogle and mookie both have 3, deano has 9 in four seasons, tickle has 9 in four full seasons and four part seasons), and some non-champions have significantly more (savatgy has 5 in his only season, brayton has 38 if I counted correctly). Meanwhile, someone like Hartranft doesn't even have a 250 win but, in my opinion, contributes to the deep field. And where does a guy like Friese fit into this?

Is there a single stat that can describe how deep the field is?
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Jake_CR250R
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Jake_CR250R 1/8/2021 4:59am
1/8/2021 4:59am
Honestly, I don't see a way to measure it especially factoring 250 guys coming in who have never raced in the 450s. You could do avg. points earned per races entered, season finishes, finish position with X number of past champions racing. In reality though our sport is very individual and unpredictable, and that's part of why it's so appealing.
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Press516
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Press516 1/8/2021 8:12am
1/8/2021 8:12am
250 wins and titles doesn't always translate to the premier class... But most all premier class wins and champs also won at the 250 level. So you have to factor it. I think what makes me feel the depth of this years 450 class is simply the eye test. I've watched all of the guys for their entire pro careers and know that the speed, conditioning and desire is extremely high in more riders than I can remember. How many times will we see a big name in the LCQ? More than recent memory serves in my opinion.

I just re-watched the WW Ranch outdoors race and Osborne's "burning desire" was confirmed... Wink He's not the only one we'll see that in this year.

Let's drop that F'ing gate already!!!
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moto804
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moto804 1/8/2021 8:22am
1/8/2021 8:22am
Love some good spreadsheet statistical analysis!

My thoughts:
- limit it to just SX for stat analysis - this means only 3 active champs in the "Big Boy" class

- assign a points system to plug into the sheet to analyze
-its your sheet, but here is my proposal:
450 SX:
Champ - 100 pts
Win - 25 pts
Pos 2-3 - 10 pts
Pos 4-5 - 5 pts
Pos 6-10 - 3 pts

250 SX
Champ - 15 pts
Win - 5 pts
Pos 2-3 - 3 pts

I would be interested to see where everyone stacks up with a formula like that. I'm sure there will be a few people along to say how wrong this formula is, but that is fine too.
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TeamGreen
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TeamGreen 1/8/2021 9:57am
1/8/2021 9:57am
This year, it seems to me, there’s more Factory Backed Bikes on the gate than any other time in SX?
3 Husky
4 KTM
1 GasGas
3 Yamaha (Are we calling Star “factory”?)
2 Honda
2 Kawasaki
3 Suzuki (Are we calling HEP “factory”? It seems they’re getting better support from Suzuki)

Then there’s the guys at MCR with their 4 man squad (one is out for now)....

That’s the whole gate for the main.

When we talk about “stacked”? Well, this year seems to fit in that discussion.

What’s gonna be interesting and will come into all those “wild card” picks for the fantasy league players: who amongst the “real privateers” is gonna make it into the Main?
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ratonmacias
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ratonmacias 1/8/2021 10:05am
1/8/2021 10:05am
Anybody who wins mxgp, 250 mx or 450's championships stacks the gate.
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RichieW13
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RichieW13 1/8/2021 10:40am
1/8/2021 10:40am
If the idea is to see how deep the competition is at a race, you want to know how many guys have the capability of winning the race. So, I think you want to look at past race wins, more than past championships.

I also think the value of a past race win should decrease over time. For instance, last year Chad Reed was racing and he has 44 wins in the premier SX class. But it had been 5 years since he had won, and he only finished in the top 10 one time all year. So he wasn't adding as much to the "deep field' as his 44 wins would imply.

So maybe every race win the previous season is worth 10 points. Two years ago is worth 9 points. Three years ago is worth 8 points, etc. All race wins for 10+ years ago would be worth 1 point.

I have a database of race winners (that I could share), but unfortunately lack the query skills to make the computation.
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mxtech1
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mxtech1 1/8/2021 11:05am
1/8/2021 11:05am
I would make a weighted matrix that has a variable scale for each input. Each input could have a scale of 0-10 and then you would have to subjectively score each rider for each input to get a combined score. To make the output score accurate, you would need a ton of inputs

To answer the question if this is the deepest field in history, you would first need a composite score for each rider that lines up during the Main to understand how probable they are to win that given event. This would be a huge, time consuming task that, in the end, is going to mathematically tell you what we subjectively already know, which is that there are 3-5 guys each season that make up a staggering % of the probability of winning a race. Just like there was 5, 10, 15, & 20 seasons ago.

I think many folks get hung up on the "deepest field this year" talk. Every single year we proclaim a new level of deepest field has been reached and every season at the end of the year it's always the same handful of guys exchanging podium positions for a championship. Don't get me wrong, the field has definitely tightened up and become more competitive from front to back in most aspects, but in the end the susperstars of the sport are going to dominant the race win and podiums every year.

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robotsfrom
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robotsfrom 1/8/2021 11:20am
1/8/2021 11:20am
TeamGreen wrote:
This year, it seems to me, there’s more Factory Backed Bikes on the gate than any other time in SX? 3 Husky 4 KTM 1 GasGas...
This year, it seems to me, there’s more Factory Backed Bikes on the gate than any other time in SX?
3 Husky
4 KTM
1 GasGas
3 Yamaha (Are we calling Star “factory”?)
2 Honda
2 Kawasaki
3 Suzuki (Are we calling HEP “factory”? It seems they’re getting better support from Suzuki)

Then there’s the guys at MCR with their 4 man squad (one is out for now)....

That’s the whole gate for the main.

When we talk about “stacked”? Well, this year seems to fit in that discussion.

What’s gonna be interesting and will come into all those “wild card” picks for the fantasy league players: who amongst the “real privateers” is gonna make it into the Main?
Star Yamaha is the official factory Yamaha team and Hep is the official factory Suzuki team this year
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burn1986
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burn1986 1/8/2021 11:30am
1/8/2021 11:30am
TeamGreen wrote:
This year, it seems to me, there’s more Factory Backed Bikes on the gate than any other time in SX? 3 Husky 4 KTM 1 GasGas...
This year, it seems to me, there’s more Factory Backed Bikes on the gate than any other time in SX?
3 Husky
4 KTM
1 GasGas
3 Yamaha (Are we calling Star “factory”?)
2 Honda
2 Kawasaki
3 Suzuki (Are we calling HEP “factory”? It seems they’re getting better support from Suzuki)

Then there’s the guys at MCR with their 4 man squad (one is out for now)....

That’s the whole gate for the main.

When we talk about “stacked”? Well, this year seems to fit in that discussion.

What’s gonna be interesting and will come into all those “wild card” picks for the fantasy league players: who amongst the “real privateers” is gonna make it into the Main?
Who is out from MCR?
2
-MAVERICK-
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-MAVERICK- 1/8/2021 11:37am
1/8/2021 11:37am
TeamGreen wrote:
This year, it seems to me, there’s more Factory Backed Bikes on the gate than any other time in SX? 3 Husky 4 KTM 1 GasGas...
This year, it seems to me, there’s more Factory Backed Bikes on the gate than any other time in SX?
3 Husky
4 KTM
1 GasGas
3 Yamaha (Are we calling Star “factory”?)
2 Honda
2 Kawasaki
3 Suzuki (Are we calling HEP “factory”? It seems they’re getting better support from Suzuki)

Then there’s the guys at MCR with their 4 man squad (one is out for now)....

That’s the whole gate for the main.

When we talk about “stacked”? Well, this year seems to fit in that discussion.

What’s gonna be interesting and will come into all those “wild card” picks for the fantasy league players: who amongst the “real privateers” is gonna make it into the Main?
burn1986 wrote:
Who is out from MCR?
McElrath is injured.
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motoman154__
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motoman154__ 1/8/2021 11:42am
1/8/2021 11:42am Edited Date/Time 1/8/2021 12:02pm
RichieW13 wrote:
If the idea is to see how deep the competition is at a race, you want to know how many guys have the capability of winning...
If the idea is to see how deep the competition is at a race, you want to know how many guys have the capability of winning the race. So, I think you want to look at past race wins, more than past championships.

I also think the value of a past race win should decrease over time. For instance, last year Chad Reed was racing and he has 44 wins in the premier SX class. But it had been 5 years since he had won, and he only finished in the top 10 one time all year. So he wasn't adding as much to the "deep field' as his 44 wins would imply.

So maybe every race win the previous season is worth 10 points. Two years ago is worth 9 points. Three years ago is worth 8 points, etc. All race wins for 10+ years ago would be worth 1 point.

I have a database of race winners (that I could share), but unfortunately lack the query skills to make the computation.
I think this is a great idea, and I'm gonna experiment with it a little bit. I would give credit for solid top-10 finishes, not just wins, because riders like Wilson and Savatgy definitely contribute to the deep field but they don't have any 450 wins.

Maybe average finish in races finished by year (DNFs excluded, because they aren't relevant for what we're looking at), with less value given to older seasons? Then use this average finish to give a points value. Something like 20 points for average finish 1st-4th, 12 points for average finish 5th-8th, 8 points for average finish 8th-10th, 4 points for average finish 10th-12th; -2 points for each year before 2020. Halve all of those numbers for 250SX.

I think I'm gonna roll with this and see how it turns out. I love suggestions, so keep them coming. If I like how it turns out, I'll post the results here.

Edit: moto804 actually had a really similar idea to this haha
motoman154__
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motoman154__ 1/8/2021 11:48am
1/8/2021 11:48am
mxtech1 wrote:
I would make a weighted matrix that has a variable scale for each input. Each input could have a scale of 0-10 and then you would...
I would make a weighted matrix that has a variable scale for each input. Each input could have a scale of 0-10 and then you would have to subjectively score each rider for each input to get a combined score. To make the output score accurate, you would need a ton of inputs

To answer the question if this is the deepest field in history, you would first need a composite score for each rider that lines up during the Main to understand how probable they are to win that given event. This would be a huge, time consuming task that, in the end, is going to mathematically tell you what we subjectively already know, which is that there are 3-5 guys each season that make up a staggering % of the probability of winning a race. Just like there was 5, 10, 15, & 20 seasons ago.

I think many folks get hung up on the "deepest field this year" talk. Every single year we proclaim a new level of deepest field has been reached and every season at the end of the year it's always the same handful of guys exchanging podium positions for a championship. Don't get me wrong, the field has definitely tightened up and become more competitive from front to back in most aspects, but in the end the susperstars of the sport are going to dominant the race win and podiums every year.

I think you're right about how the riders at the top are on a different level than everyone else, and that this is the way it's always been. What seems remarkable to me though (and this is what indicates to me how "deep" the field is) is that 6th-13th is like throwing darts at a dart board every weekend. I'm young, so I don't have as many years watching SX as you Vital Veterans, but I wouldn't think that it's always been so stacked that 6th and 13th are on the same level, week in and week out (and the 10th place guy could get a podium if everything clicks).
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RichieW13
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RichieW13 1/8/2021 12:10pm
1/8/2021 12:10pm
motoman154__ wrote:
I think this is a great idea, and I'm gonna experiment with it a little bit. I would give credit for solid top-10 finishes, not just...
I think this is a great idea, and I'm gonna experiment with it a little bit. I would give credit for solid top-10 finishes, not just wins, because riders like Wilson and Savatgy definitely contribute to the deep field but they don't have any 450 wins.

Maybe average finish in races finished by year (DNFs excluded, because they aren't relevant for what we're looking at), with less value given to older seasons? Then use this average finish to give a points value. Something like 20 points for average finish 1st-4th, 12 points for average finish 5th-8th, 8 points for average finish 8th-10th, 4 points for average finish 10th-12th; -2 points for each year before 2020. Halve all of those numbers for 250SX.

I think I'm gonna roll with this and see how it turns out. I love suggestions, so keep them coming. If I like how it turns out, I'll post the results here.

Edit: moto804 actually had a really similar idea to this haha
You also could just use points by year. Since points are so heavily weighted to higher finishes, the correlation between wins or podiums in a season and points scored in a season is pretty high.
lumpy790
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lumpy790 1/8/2021 12:23pm
1/8/2021 12:23pm
We see every year that this year is the deepest field ever.
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kage173
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kage173 1/8/2021 12:24pm
1/8/2021 12:24pm
Literally every single year is the new "Deepest field ever bro".

It's not. It's really not. In 2011 James Stewart, Chad Reed, Ryan Villopoto, Ryan Dungey and Trey Canard all lined up. This field is not deeper than that. In the 80's you had some epic lineups.
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ktmdan
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ktmdan 1/8/2021 12:25pm
1/8/2021 12:25pm
There’s a hundred ways to skin this cat. That’s what makes it interesting. I don’t have the patience to even start thinking about it cause all I do at work all day is analyze data 🥱😴 I like MxTech’s thinkin though

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RichieW13
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RichieW13 1/8/2021 12:44pm
1/8/2021 12:44pm Edited Date/Time 1/8/2021 12:45pm
kage173 wrote:
Literally every single year is the new "Deepest field ever bro". It's not. It's really not. In 2011 James Stewart, Chad Reed, Ryan Villopoto, Ryan Dungey...
Literally every single year is the new "Deepest field ever bro".

It's not. It's really not. In 2011 James Stewart, Chad Reed, Ryan Villopoto, Ryan Dungey and Trey Canard all lined up. This field is not deeper than that. In the 80's you had some epic lineups.
That's only 5 riders. That may have been a top-heavy year, but not necessarily a deep year.



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FHKRacingZ
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FHKRacingZ 1/8/2021 1:12pm
1/8/2021 1:12pm
There are two factors in how to view this. Quantitative and Qualitative.

Quantitative tells you there are X amount of Champions and Championships racing.

Qualitative says what have you done lately and where are you trending?

Racing tends to be in the moment and just as much qualitative as quantitative. There are extremes in both sides but a guy with a Quantitative background like Chad Reed, brings social media, fans, and an entire different side than a guy who beats him by 5 positions. Very complex answer. You found some good data though!
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STLSharky
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STLSharky 1/8/2021 1:42pm
1/8/2021 1:42pm
motoman154__ wrote:
Clickbait title, I know. You gotta do what you gotta do. I started making a spreadsheet with some stats to show how deep the 450 field...
Clickbait title, I know. You gotta do what you gotta do.

I started making a spreadsheet with some stats to show how deep the 450 field is this year (my idea of fun, apparently), and it got difficult because there are so many ways to measure how "legit" someone is. So I wanted to see what y'all think is most important when measuring how many legit dudes are racing. Championships? "Big boy" championships (anything other than 250SX)? Race wins, or having more than a certain number of race wins? Points finishes in top 3?

You've got 15 or 16 guys (is Justin Hill racing?) lining up at H1 who've won championships. 10 guys have won big boy championships. 11 guys have won multiple championships. You have some champions who have only a handful of 450SX top 5s (bogle and mookie both have 3, deano has 9 in four seasons, tickle has 9 in four full seasons and four part seasons), and some non-champions have significantly more (savatgy has 5 in his only season, brayton has 38 if I counted correctly). Meanwhile, someone like Hartranft doesn't even have a 250 win but, in my opinion, contributes to the deep field. And where does a guy like Friese fit into this?

Is there a single stat that can describe how deep the field is?
its never deep.......top 2 or three always disappear
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ERichardson424 1/8/2021 3:42pm
1/8/2021 3:42pm
motoman154__ wrote:
Clickbait title, I know. You gotta do what you gotta do. I started making a spreadsheet with some stats to show how deep the 450 field...
Clickbait title, I know. You gotta do what you gotta do.

I started making a spreadsheet with some stats to show how deep the 450 field is this year (my idea of fun, apparently), and it got difficult because there are so many ways to measure how "legit" someone is. So I wanted to see what y'all think is most important when measuring how many legit dudes are racing. Championships? "Big boy" championships (anything other than 250SX)? Race wins, or having more than a certain number of race wins? Points finishes in top 3?

You've got 15 or 16 guys (is Justin Hill racing?) lining up at H1 who've won championships. 10 guys have won big boy championships. 11 guys have won multiple championships. You have some champions who have only a handful of 450SX top 5s (bogle and mookie both have 3, deano has 9 in four seasons, tickle has 9 in four full seasons and four part seasons), and some non-champions have significantly more (savatgy has 5 in his only season, brayton has 38 if I counted correctly). Meanwhile, someone like Hartranft doesn't even have a 250 win but, in my opinion, contributes to the deep field. And where does a guy like Friese fit into this?

Is there a single stat that can describe how deep the field is?
STLSharky wrote:
its never deep.......top 2 or three always disappear
Generally that is true, but its "deep" because its prety tough to say who those top 2 or 3 will be. There are at least 6 or 7 guys who could fit into that top 2 or 3
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SCC
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SCC 1/8/2021 3:44pm
1/8/2021 3:44pm
There is only 1 or 2 riders with the goal of winning the race unfortunately. Same as every year going back to 1974.
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ERichardson424 1/8/2021 3:45pm
1/8/2021 3:45pm
SCC wrote:
There is only 1 or 2 riders with the goal of winning the race unfortunately. Same as every year going back to 1974.
Definitely more than 2 guys lining up at Houston with the goal of winning.
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RichieW13
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RichieW13 1/8/2021 3:47pm
1/8/2021 3:47pm
SCC wrote:
There is only 1 or 2 riders with the goal of winning the race unfortunately. Same as every year going back to 1974.
1 or 2?

At miminum, these guys will all be disappointed if they don't win round 1:

Eli Tomac, Adam Cianciarulo, Cooper Webb, Justin Barcia, Marvin Musquin, Ken Roczen, Zach Osborne and probably Jason Anderson. (Am I forgetting somebody?) That's at least 8 guys who think they have a legitimate shot at winning round 1.
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SCC
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SCC 1/8/2021 3:51pm
1/8/2021 3:51pm Edited Date/Time 1/8/2021 3:53pm
Nope. Get a top 5 is the goal for the factory boys at round 1. And have fun of course because that is why we all go to work.
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motoman154__
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motoman154__ 1/8/2021 3:53pm
1/8/2021 3:53pm
RichieW13 wrote:
1 or 2? At miminum, these guys will all be disappointed if they don't win round 1: Eli Tomac, Adam Cianciarulo, Cooper Webb, Justin Barcia, Marvin...
1 or 2?

At miminum, these guys will all be disappointed if they don't win round 1:

Eli Tomac, Adam Cianciarulo, Cooper Webb, Justin Barcia, Marvin Musquin, Ken Roczen, Zach Osborne and probably Jason Anderson. (Am I forgetting somebody?) That's at least 8 guys who think they have a legitimate shot at winning round 1.
I would add Sexton and Ferrandis. Sexton has confidence after how well he rode outdoors last year, and Ferrandis is just an animal
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FerCzD
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FerCzD 1/8/2021 4:17pm
1/8/2021 4:17pm Edited Date/Time 1/8/2021 4:18pm
motoman154__ wrote:
I would add Sexton and Ferrandis. Sexton has confidence after how well he rode outdoors last year, and Ferrandis is just an animal
Ferrandis told in an interview that he is not putting himself big expectations in his first year. And starting the season coming off an injury, I think his goal for H1 is to crack the top ten.
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nealb129
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nealb129 1/8/2021 4:35pm
1/8/2021 4:35pm
So what are you implying with deepest field? That there is an opportunity for more guys to podium or top 5 than previous years? Or that the 15th place guy on a given night could podium the next week?

Because if you are talking about race winners that’s another story. The cream will rise to the top and it will only be 2 or 3 guys battling consistently
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SCC
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SCC 1/8/2021 5:16pm
1/8/2021 5:16pm
Deep field to me means how many riders plan on winning each round. That answer is less than 5 as it has always been. Hopefully that changes and we have 17 different winners this year.
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