Crunching the Numbers

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8/9/2014 3:08 PM

For those of you who are into this kind of thing, here's a quick look at the numbers in the 450 class over the last four races (Budds, Millville, Washougal, Unadilla). Obviously Budds is where the current trend in the 450 class stated. IMO these four races hold the most relevance and serve as the best indicator of what to expect from the final two rounds.

Moto Scores + Pts Earned
Dungey: 2-1, 3-2, 1-1, 1-2 = 186 pts
Tomac: 4-3, 1-1, 2-2, 3-3 = 172 pts
Roczen : 1-2, 2-4, 3-3, 2-4 = 167 pts

Avg Pts per Moto
Dungey: 23.25
Tomac: 21.5
Roczen: 20.88

On-Track Gap Between Roczen & Dungey (Moto by Moto)
Budds Moto 1: KR +2 sec
Budds Moto 2: RD + 5 sec
Millville Moto 1: KR +8 sec
Millville Moto 2: RD +36 sec
Washougal Moto 1: RD +26 sec
Washougal Moto 2: RD +64 sec
Unadilla Moto 1: RD +8 sec
Unadilla Moto 2: RD +23 sec

Average Gap: RD +19 sec


As we look to the final two rounds of the season, Dungey trails Roczen by 7 pts. Over the last four races, RD has gained an average of 2.37 pts per moto on Roczen. 2.37 x 4 remaining motos is about 9.5 pts. We know Eli will continue to play spoiler in the title fight, but it will also be interesting to see if Trey sustains the same level of performance over the final two rounds as he did today at Unadilla. Another interesting and potentially critical stat is win totals. With this thing being as close as it is, it isn't out of the realm of possibility that it could come down to a tie. I believe moto wins are the tie breaker, but I could be wrong. In any case, here's what those numbers look like:

Roczen: 4 OA's, 7 moto wins
Dungey: 4 OA's, 6 moto wins


This thing's going to be tight!

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8/9/2014 4:20 PM

Nice post. Dungey definitely has the momentum now for the championship. I think he deserves it, and if he wins, it will probably be his hardest fought championship to date. No asterisks for this one.

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8/9/2014 4:26 PM

Except from the RV2 fanboys.

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8/9/2014 6:45 PM

Since the first race in your list with RD and KR is a push, you might want to just look at the last 3 races and see what your numbers say.

19 points over 6 motos gives an average of just over 3 points per moto, which would work out to about a 13 point swing... which would predict a virtual tie going into the last round and a championship winning margin of about 6 points for RD.

However, I feel KR has had the benefit of cooler than normal races for the summer. If either of these last two races is hot (90+) then we may see him wilt.
Of course, one silly tip-over like RD has done before could do him in, too.

The other unknown is how KR is going to be mentally after today - knowing he gave it everything he had when it mattered and falling off the pace to finish 4th in the 2nd moto. He knows what everyone can now see - the 2nd moto is his weakness (tied to conditioning?).
His 2nd moto finish hasn't been better than his 1st moto finish in any of the last four races.

Just some thoughts...

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8/9/2014 8:41 PM

Thank you, I was dreading having to do all that math!!!

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THERE IS NO SECOND MOTO IN LIFE!

8/9/2014 8:49 PM

WOW. Great stuff. This is so much better than who failed the drug test gossip. Those on-track gaps are STAGGERING. Even though Kenny has always been only a spot or 2 behind he's getting his butt kicked. 36 26 64 23 second gaps recently....ouch sounds like RV last year.

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8/9/2014 8:52 PM

ChrisB10 wrote:

WOW. Great stuff. This is so much better than who failed the drug test gossip. Those on-track gaps are STAGGERING. Even though ...more

Yep, if there were more guys in the mix right now who were capable of being up there (JS7, JG33, etc), KR may already be looking at a points deficit.

But it is what it is.

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8/9/2014 8:59 PM
Edited Date/Time: 8/9/2014 9:01 PM

Mr Bean wrote:

Since the first race in your list with RD and KR is a push, you might want to just look at the last 3 races and see what your ...more

For sure. Either way you look at it, it's still going to be pretty tight going into Utah. With a one race, winner take all type scenario, anything can happen. I don't see Roczen getting worse than a 4th in a moto even if he does wilt...I just don't think anyone can get in the mix besides Trey and Eli. Ryan is definitely peaking at the right time and what's cool is you can see the difference in his riding. He's being more assertive, making quick passes and getting through lapped traffic much better. I do think today went a long way in breaking Kenny's spirit. I wonder if he will react passively or if we'll see him perhaps ride a little more desperately as a result.

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8/9/2014 9:03 PM

radialone wrote:

For sure. Either way you look at it, it's still going to be pretty tight going into Utah. With a one race, winner take all ...more

Agreed.

It looks like RD5 has been watching RV2 and JS7 vids on how to pass.

The upcoming races make me think of the old saying. "When the going gets tough, the tough get going".


Looks like we'll find out who's tough.

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8/9/2014 9:06 PM

Man I wanted to see Kroc dominate and get the championship. He's floundering in the clutch tho. Dungey is riding awesome. KTM win win either way. Great season over all!

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8/9/2014 9:09 PM

My guess is...in the last moto at UT...it will be within a few points. Meaning whoever wins the last moto between them...wins it all. Utah was one of KRs worst races last year. If it is hot...plus the altitude...it might not go well for him...especially if he carries a bad vibe for that track.

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8/9/2014 11:42 PM

Not to rain on your parade, but there's a good chance those red riders may well end up in front of RD with Kenny winning. Party over.
Momentum is one thing but Moto is going to get sketchy at their intensity.

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8/9/2014 11:46 PM

Very interesting.....I would put money on RD winning the title

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Current rides: 2020 CRF450RWE and 2019 TC300
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8/10/2014 5:25 AM

Tumblin wrote:

Not to rain on your parade, but there's a good chance those red riders may well end up in front of RD with Kenny winning. ...more

True both looking good and helping to set up a great finish. Think both RD & KR need to look at how things are looking after Indiana, also both need to go balls out for the win to TRY and get a red bike (or two) in between them before last round, its def gonna be squeaky bum time sick

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Now a member of the Orange brigade

8/10/2014 8:56 AM

SigPig wrote:

Except from the RV2 fanboys.

There are no Asterisk's next to a championship......no matter who won it.

No matter if it's Kenny or Ryan who wins this thing.......whoever does....deserved it ! A super tough , well fought battle for the titles in both classes this year.

And if RV would of been there??............who says that he would of won it? You have to line up and race first....and he couldn't. RV could of DNF'd 1 - 2 moto's or ended his season by now for all we know......it's why they race. RD , Kenny and Eli wouldn't of been pushed around very easily out there from what I've seen this year.

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And there goes Jeffro. One of God's own prototypes. A super high-powered mutant of some kind never even considered for mass production. Too weird to live, and too rare to die.

Ezza is Da man!

Pimpin' Ho's , Rollin' fatty's......drinkin' beers , beers , beers!! ~ Ja

8/10/2014 8:59 AM

BTW.....to the OP.....thanks for the number crunch there. I've always dug looking at things like this. Puts things into perspective.

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And there goes Jeffro. One of God's own prototypes. A super high-powered mutant of some kind never even considered for mass production. Too weird to live, and too rare to die.

Ezza is Da man!

Pimpin' Ho's , Rollin' fatty's......drinkin' beers , beers , beers!! ~ Ja

8/10/2014 9:48 AM

Dungey hasn't had a mechanical problem yet this season, he is usually good for some freak thing to happen.

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