Cold hard numbers 2005-2018: Win / loss records versus post-season days before MXdN

mark_swart
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10/10/2018 9:31am
DC wrote:
Nice work mark_swart, those numbers are very telling to me. And here are the previous schedules from 2005 back:

http://memotocross.fr/mx-mondial/mondial-2010-2019/index.php

http://memotocross.fr/mx-mondial/mx-resultats-1/index.php

DC
Racer X


Thanks for the leads DC! Here is the complete 20 year chart (minus the three that we didn't send a team). I realize there are a lot of other factors (track conditions, did we send our best team some years, etc etc), but I think the trend is undeniable when it comes to US results in relation to the time off before MXdN.
ratonmacias
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10/10/2018 9:45am
there you go. just change your schedule and send whoever wants to race!
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bradnelson
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10/11/2018 5:48am
mark_swart wrote:
I've seen a lot of theories and ideas about why Team USA didn't perform as expected, but the time gap really jumps out at me so...
I've seen a lot of theories and ideas about why Team USA didn't perform as expected, but the time gap really jumps out at me so I decided to look back in history to look at some trends.

I wanted to go back 20 years, but could only find MXGP schedules back to 2005. Granted there are other variables at play, but it's pretty clear the schedule deck has become significantly stacked against the US-based riders in recent years (all of which Team USA has lost.) In years Team USA won, the gap was between 7-29 days (and MXGP had a 21 day break in the year that USA had the 29 day break). In every year Team USA lost, there was at least a 22 day break while in those same years MXGP never had more than a 22 day break.



I'm definitely not saying that we will ever dominate again, but France has shown that a solid team can get the job done. We can blame supercross, bike setup, lines, talent, training and team managers, but I think the numbers make a good case for the scheduling challenge. I don't know if this can turn around for Team USA until our series schedules end closer to the same times. At least then we could be in the conversation. After seeing the gaps since 2012, I also have a new appreciation for the U.S.-based riders who step up for this event.


kb228
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10/11/2018 6:04am
Biggest thing i see here is how NOW everyone wants to realize the long year for US riders. This was a problem for RV - one of the main reasons he retired. He said it was a whirlpool of racing. Same thing for Tomac last year and everyone jumped his shit.

Look at this like a company. You give your employees a great work to life ratio where theyre happy, theyll be more productive for you when they are at work. Work your employees 12 hours a day 6-7 days a week, watch them get burnt out and not try as hard and your company will have a high turnover rate.

Supercross needs less rounds. 14 is enough. Put in a nice break between sx and outdoors and run a couple extra nationals to line up with the GPs.
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mccread
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10/11/2018 6:12am
The US Nationals shortened their season, that’s why, MXDN mostly always been end of Sept/ beginning of October, pre 2005. Nice selective dates too!

America didn’t win much in the mid to late 90s either, what was the excuse then? And BTW USA winning the MXDN doesn’t mean they are superior to European riders or the world championship, so I don’t know what the big deal is or what Americans think USA winning mean...

No one is saying France are the best riders in the world because they have won five in a row..

Let’s be honest USA have HUGE advantage at this race, they have so many riders to choose from compared to other countries, try taking three riders from one state, which, size-wise, is what other countries have to do. And just be glad there is no team Europe to compete with.

Also maybe encourage more rider to want to be world mx champions so you have top US guys racing the world championship then the break won’t exist. And if they win world individual titles, then you can accurately claim America have the best motocross rider in the world.
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10/11/2018 6:15am
College football starts at the beginning of September which means the Nationals have to end at that time for the NBC TV contract. Probably why things won't change with the schedule.
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Gukamonster
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10/11/2018 1:26pm
Maybe the 1 day format doesn't help. Reduced track time over the course of the year (or several years), less time to develop an ideal setup, etc.

Year Winner USA Point Margin of Victory / Loss

2005 USA +8 over France
2006 USA +4 over Belgium
2007 USA +26 over France
2008 USA +5 over France

==== 1 Day Format Begins for USA Motocross=

2009 USA +8 over France
2010 USA +7 over Belgium
2011 USA +13 over France

--- 7 Year USA win streak ends ---

2012 Germany -14 (3rd)
2013 Belgium -3 (2nd)
2014 France -16 (3rd)
2015 France -2 (2nd)
2016 France -4 (3rd)
2017 France -65 (9th)
2018 France -14 (6th)
Rs444
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10/11/2018 2:06pm
Ferrandis had the same break as the US based riders right?
Alex814 wrote:
Yeah and he was beat by Prado, Lawrence, and Watson in motos.
And they would have beaten him 90 times out of 100 on that track in those condition regardless ig they raced the week before. This is just excuses and i get it, ppl want to find a reason for the raping team america got but its simple- the mxgp guys are fast. Tomac was off mentaly, the pressure got to him, barcia was probably where he should been in these conditions, maybe 2-3 spots higher with a decent start and plessinger probably lost all self confidence after seeing how fast they where going in those conditions after thinking that ferrandis
who probably wouldnt be top 5 after an mxgp season today was the fastest european mx2 rider.


You could blame the brake between races all u want but the Cold hard facts is that the brake was just a good thing for them they get to recover after a physically tough season and just fokus all in on mxon. They are still riding every day and training every day. They have time to practice on similar tracks and honing their skills on weak points and 6 weeks to prepare. Think of it this way, every last one of us knows ppl who have been injured half a season and came back being just as good and fast as before.
Fuck windham didnt race for 5 years and beat som very Good riders, roczen was out for 2 years almost and came back and beat 90% of the US field straight away and led laps and this was with years of the bike for these dudes so why should 6 weeks of purely focusing on mxon give you an disadvantage when no one else even har time to thing about mxon until a couple of Days before?.
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mark_swart
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10/11/2018 2:31pm
Ferrandis had the same break as the US based riders right?
Alex814 wrote:
Yeah and he was beat by Prado, Lawrence, and Watson in motos.
Rs444 wrote:
And they would have beaten him 90 times out of 100 on that track in those condition regardless ig they raced the week before. This is...
And they would have beaten him 90 times out of 100 on that track in those condition regardless ig they raced the week before. This is just excuses and i get it, ppl want to find a reason for the raping team america got but its simple- the mxgp guys are fast. Tomac was off mentaly, the pressure got to him, barcia was probably where he should been in these conditions, maybe 2-3 spots higher with a decent start and plessinger probably lost all self confidence after seeing how fast they where going in those conditions after thinking that ferrandis
who probably wouldnt be top 5 after an mxgp season today was the fastest european mx2 rider.


You could blame the brake between races all u want but the Cold hard facts is that the brake was just a good thing for them they get to recover after a physically tough season and just fokus all in on mxon. They are still riding every day and training every day. They have time to practice on similar tracks and honing their skills on weak points and 6 weeks to prepare. Think of it this way, every last one of us knows ppl who have been injured half a season and came back being just as good and fast as before.
Fuck windham didnt race for 5 years and beat som very Good riders, roczen was out for 2 years almost and came back and beat 90% of the US field straight away and led laps and this was with years of the bike for these dudes so why should 6 weeks of purely focusing on mxon give you an disadvantage when no one else even har time to thing about mxon until a couple of Days before?.
Last year when Tomac was one week out of the regular season he beat Herlings and AC by 28 SECONDS in the first moto at the USGP, on a track that isn't part of our national circuit. So there was no homefield advantage there. I think it's funny as hell that everyone seems to forget that...

The gap isn't the entire reason, but I think it's a big part of it. I feel like the numbers indicate a pattern. Nobody can go through two back to back championship series from Jan - August and then keep grinding like they are in the season for another 43 days. Mentally it just doesn't work. Even these super human dudes have to crash and decompress at some point.

With a gap that big, we would be better picking riders who were coming back from early-season injuries and trying to get back to form. You could make a good case for that being part of Ferrandis's motivation as well.
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robkinuk
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10/11/2018 2:38pm
Alex814 wrote:
Yeah and he was beat by Prado, Lawrence, and Watson in motos.
Rs444 wrote:
And they would have beaten him 90 times out of 100 on that track in those condition regardless ig they raced the week before. This is...
And they would have beaten him 90 times out of 100 on that track in those condition regardless ig they raced the week before. This is just excuses and i get it, ppl want to find a reason for the raping team america got but its simple- the mxgp guys are fast. Tomac was off mentaly, the pressure got to him, barcia was probably where he should been in these conditions, maybe 2-3 spots higher with a decent start and plessinger probably lost all self confidence after seeing how fast they where going in those conditions after thinking that ferrandis
who probably wouldnt be top 5 after an mxgp season today was the fastest european mx2 rider.


You could blame the brake between races all u want but the Cold hard facts is that the brake was just a good thing for them they get to recover after a physically tough season and just fokus all in on mxon. They are still riding every day and training every day. They have time to practice on similar tracks and honing their skills on weak points and 6 weeks to prepare. Think of it this way, every last one of us knows ppl who have been injured half a season and came back being just as good and fast as before.
Fuck windham didnt race for 5 years and beat som very Good riders, roczen was out for 2 years almost and came back and beat 90% of the US field straight away and led laps and this was with years of the bike for these dudes so why should 6 weeks of purely focusing on mxon give you an disadvantage when no one else even har time to thing about mxon until a couple of Days before?.
mark_swart wrote:
Last year when Tomac was one week out of the regular season he beat Herlings and AC by 28 SECONDS in the first moto at the...
Last year when Tomac was one week out of the regular season he beat Herlings and AC by 28 SECONDS in the first moto at the USGP, on a track that isn't part of our national circuit. So there was no homefield advantage there. I think it's funny as hell that everyone seems to forget that...

The gap isn't the entire reason, but I think it's a big part of it. I feel like the numbers indicate a pattern. Nobody can go through two back to back championship series from Jan - August and then keep grinding like they are in the season for another 43 days. Mentally it just doesn't work. Even these super human dudes have to crash and decompress at some point.

With a gap that big, we would be better picking riders who were coming back from early-season injuries and trying to get back to form. You could make a good case for that being part of Ferrandis's motivation as well.
But the MXGP riders were coming to the end of their long championship so they probably just put it in cruise control and mailed it in, rather than chase after Tomac.
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mark_swart
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10/11/2018 2:46pm
robkinuk wrote:
But the MXGP riders were coming to the end of their long championship so they probably just put it in cruise control and mailed it in...
But the MXGP riders were coming to the end of their long championship so they probably just put it in cruise control and mailed it in, rather than chase after Tomac.
Herlings certainly wasn't mailing it in when he visited Iron Man was he : ) ?

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robkinuk
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10/11/2018 2:53pm
robkinuk wrote:
But the MXGP riders were coming to the end of their long championship so they probably just put it in cruise control and mailed it in...
But the MXGP riders were coming to the end of their long championship so they probably just put it in cruise control and mailed it in, rather than chase after Tomac.
mark_swart wrote:
Herlings certainly wasn't mailing it in when he visited Iron Man was he : ) ?

No, but you all believe that was the reason Tomac didn't race him at Iron Man Indiana National.
You can't have it both ways........
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10/11/2018 3:11pm
robkinuk wrote:
No, but you all believe that was the reason Tomac didn't race him at Iron Man Indiana National.
You can't have it both ways........
It’s not both ways. Herlings already lost the championship before Ironman.
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karsmakers
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10/11/2018 3:11pm
robkinuk wrote:
Last two Nationals at Unadilla and Indiana were mudders, whereas most of the MXGP have been hot and dry, so Team USA had more relevant experience...
Last two Nationals at Unadilla and Indiana were mudders, whereas most of the MXGP have been hot and dry, so Team USA had more relevant experience in the mud. Please explain this fact away?
Mud yes ..sand no.
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DPR250R
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10/11/2018 3:49pm
robkinuk wrote:
But the MXGP riders were coming to the end of their long championship so they probably just put it in cruise control and mailed it in...
But the MXGP riders were coming to the end of their long championship so they probably just put it in cruise control and mailed it in, rather than chase after Tomac.
Exactly like Tomac being more concerned about winning his championships then battling Herlings at Iron Man.

Can’t have it both ways dude.
ayearinmx
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10/11/2018 3:58pm
The point was...

Tomac didn't care about Herlings at Ironman because he was racing for the championship

Herlings and Cairoli didn't have to worry about Tomac at WW Ranch because they were racing each other (not Tomac) for the championship.
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Rs444
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10/11/2018 11:11pm
Alex814 wrote:
Yeah and he was beat by Prado, Lawrence, and Watson in motos.
Rs444 wrote:
And they would have beaten him 90 times out of 100 on that track in those condition regardless ig they raced the week before. This is...
And they would have beaten him 90 times out of 100 on that track in those condition regardless ig they raced the week before. This is just excuses and i get it, ppl want to find a reason for the raping team america got but its simple- the mxgp guys are fast. Tomac was off mentaly, the pressure got to him, barcia was probably where he should been in these conditions, maybe 2-3 spots higher with a decent start and plessinger probably lost all self confidence after seeing how fast they where going in those conditions after thinking that ferrandis
who probably wouldnt be top 5 after an mxgp season today was the fastest european mx2 rider.


You could blame the brake between races all u want but the Cold hard facts is that the brake was just a good thing for them they get to recover after a physically tough season and just fokus all in on mxon. They are still riding every day and training every day. They have time to practice on similar tracks and honing their skills on weak points and 6 weeks to prepare. Think of it this way, every last one of us knows ppl who have been injured half a season and came back being just as good and fast as before.
Fuck windham didnt race for 5 years and beat som very Good riders, roczen was out for 2 years almost and came back and beat 90% of the US field straight away and led laps and this was with years of the bike for these dudes so why should 6 weeks of purely focusing on mxon give you an disadvantage when no one else even har time to thing about mxon until a couple of Days before?.
mark_swart wrote:
Last year when Tomac was one week out of the regular season he beat Herlings and AC by 28 SECONDS in the first moto at the...
Last year when Tomac was one week out of the regular season he beat Herlings and AC by 28 SECONDS in the first moto at the USGP, on a track that isn't part of our national circuit. So there was no homefield advantage there. I think it's funny as hell that everyone seems to forget that...

The gap isn't the entire reason, but I think it's a big part of it. I feel like the numbers indicate a pattern. Nobody can go through two back to back championship series from Jan - August and then keep grinding like they are in the season for another 43 days. Mentally it just doesn't work. Even these super human dudes have to crash and decompress at some point.

With a gap that big, we would be better picking riders who were coming back from early-season injuries and trying to get back to form. You could make a good case for that being part of Ferrandis's motivation as well.
Yeah he did, in the only race he holeshoted and with herlings and cairoli stuck battling for a while. Herlings was gaining on tomac a bit tho until he realized that there is no use to try and catch tomac because Jeffrey himself knows that tomac is fast and that it would be almost impossible to gain 12 seconds on the dude. But you have to remember that we europeans and especially us from the northern and Eastern parts of europe live in Cold climates and are not at all used to the humidity and heat. No one can argue that most top europeans except for Maybe herlings and cairoli ended up where they should have been race 1 because of the weather being a pain in the butt for them. Race 2 when it was way cooler and less humid was a good indicator on how bad it was for the euros with cairoli going 2 seconds a lap faster than race 1 when the track is way more beaten up than in race 1 and should be way slower (as shown by tomac going 2 seconds slower than he did first race and being 2 seconds slower than jh and tc race 2). Do you honestly Believe that cairoli would be 2 seconds a lap slower when the track still is good than at the last race when the track was well rough if something didnt affect him?. There was a bunch of riders going faster in race 2 ( as you could see by them doing the same laptimes in race 2) and that goes to show that the weather was bad for them and especially race 1.

But who cares, i am the first to admit that i Think tomac would be faster than jh on a bunch of tracks, but its hard to argue against herlings being a more well rounded rider being capable of winning in every type of terrain wich tomac aint unfortunatly.

When it comes to mxon its like this - America should win every year because they are the Only ones who can pick 3 top riders from a pro series to ride for their Country every year and its been like that since the 80s. Sure france do have a couple of guys in the top in both series as well but look at all the other countries who has to pick bottom riders or even amateurs to fill up their teams. Every european knows this and its so much bigger when a small team without 3 top riders wins Against america because every last one of us knows that they are the ones with the huge advantage Against us european and thats why us euros get so hyped up when america gets beat in mxon.
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TDeath21
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10/12/2018 10:09am
Didn’t the GPs awhile back move the start of their season to where it was after SX in an effort to get some US guys to race it? I wonder if they did that now if any riders would ride it. It’s clear now where the best riders are at.

My ideal season would be SX for 10 races.

MXGP 15 races starting a few weeks after SX ends.

6 in Europe. 6 in US. 3 flyaway.

This would put US based riders who ride SX racing from the 1st weekend in January until the end of August and that’s with a weekend off after 5 SX rounds, 3 weekends off before the GP season starts, and 6 weekends off in the midst of the 15 round GP season. Then have MXoN in early September.
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keinz
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10/12/2018 12:27pm
mccread wrote:
The US Nationals shortened their season, that’s why, MXDN mostly always been end of Sept/ beginning of October, pre 2005. Nice selective dates too! America didn’t...
The US Nationals shortened their season, that’s why, MXDN mostly always been end of Sept/ beginning of October, pre 2005. Nice selective dates too!

America didn’t win much in the mid to late 90s either, what was the excuse then? And BTW USA winning the MXDN doesn’t mean they are superior to European riders or the world championship, so I don’t know what the big deal is or what Americans think USA winning mean...

No one is saying France are the best riders in the world because they have won five in a row..

Let’s be honest USA have HUGE advantage at this race, they have so many riders to choose from compared to other countries, try taking three riders from one state, which, size-wise, is what other countries have to do. And just be glad there is no team Europe to compete with.

Also maybe encourage more rider to want to be world mx champions so you have top US guys racing the world championship then the break won’t exist. And if they win world individual titles, then you can accurately claim America have the best motocross rider in the world.
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keinz
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10/12/2018 12:40pm
robkinuk wrote:
Last two Nationals at Unadilla and Indiana were mudders, whereas most of the MXGP have been hot and dry, so Team USA had more relevant experience...
Last two Nationals at Unadilla and Indiana were mudders, whereas most of the MXGP have been hot and dry, so Team USA had more relevant experience in the mud. Please explain this fact away?
Stop talking sense
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keinz
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10/12/2018 1:03pm
mark_swart wrote:
Last year when Tomac was one week out of the regular season he beat Herlings and AC by 28 SECONDS in the first moto at the...
Last year when Tomac was one week out of the regular season he beat Herlings and AC by 28 SECONDS in the first moto at the USGP, on a track that isn't part of our national circuit. So there was no homefield advantage there. I think it's funny as hell that everyone seems to forget that...

The gap isn't the entire reason, but I think it's a big part of it. I feel like the numbers indicate a pattern. Nobody can go through two back to back championship series from Jan - August and then keep grinding like they are in the season for another 43 days. Mentally it just doesn't work. Even these super human dudes have to crash and decompress at some point.

With a gap that big, we would be better picking riders who were coming back from early-season injuries and trying to get back to form. You could make a good case for that being part of Ferrandis's motivation as well.
First race- AC and JH got a shity start, an there was still Championship on the line.
Second race




UpTiTe
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10/12/2018 1:16pm
We could've raced the week after the nationals and we still would've lost.

They are faster than us, whats so hard to comprehend?
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UpTiTe
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10/12/2018 1:20pm
mark_swart wrote:
Last year when Tomac was one week out of the regular season he beat Herlings and AC by 28 SECONDS in the first moto at the...
Last year when Tomac was one week out of the regular season he beat Herlings and AC by 28 SECONDS in the first moto at the USGP, on a track that isn't part of our national circuit. So there was no homefield advantage there. I think it's funny as hell that everyone seems to forget that...

The gap isn't the entire reason, but I think it's a big part of it. I feel like the numbers indicate a pattern. Nobody can go through two back to back championship series from Jan - August and then keep grinding like they are in the season for another 43 days. Mentally it just doesn't work. Even these super human dudes have to crash and decompress at some point.

With a gap that big, we would be better picking riders who were coming back from early-season injuries and trying to get back to form. You could make a good case for that being part of Ferrandis's motivation as well.
Cairolli and Herlings both started towards the rear, and both ran a 1.5 seconds a lap faster coming through the pack. Second moto they started with Eli and left him.

Its not down time, its the fact that we are slower. Its the fact that the Euro have better outdoor skills than us.
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RG1
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10/12/2018 4:24pm
TDeath21 wrote:
Didn’t the GPs awhile back move the start of their season to where it was after SX in an effort to get some US guys to...
Didn’t the GPs awhile back move the start of their season to where it was after SX in an effort to get some US guys to race it? I wonder if they did that now if any riders would ride it. It’s clear now where the best riders are at.

My ideal season would be SX for 10 races.

MXGP 15 races starting a few weeks after SX ends.

6 in Europe. 6 in US. 3 flyaway.

This would put US based riders who ride SX racing from the 1st weekend in January until the end of August and that’s with a weekend off after 5 SX rounds, 3 weekends off before the GP season starts, and 6 weekends off in the midst of the 15 round GP season. Then have MXoN in early September.
I have to say that an MXGP Championship with only 6 Europe would be a complete disaster
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Park Boys
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10/12/2018 5:49pm
UpTiTe wrote:
Cairolli and Herlings both started towards the rear, and both ran a 1.5 seconds a lap faster coming through the pack. Second moto they started with...
Cairolli and Herlings both started towards the rear, and both ran a 1.5 seconds a lap faster coming through the pack. Second moto they started with Eli and left him.

Its not down time, its the fact that we are slower. Its the fact that the Euro have better outdoor skills than us.
If your gonna post stats, at least be right. There is nothing worse than people posting shit that they have no idea about. People may not like me or how I can twist shit but at least I don't make shit up to make a point. Tomac was the one who had the big drop off in Moto 2 not Moto 1. Herlings and AC used racecraft in Moto 1, AC let off then Herlings let off when they knew they had no chance of winning while Tomac kept the hammer down until the end and then got smoked in Moto 2. In Moto 1 though he was the fastest even without jumping the big rhythm section that Herlings, AC and Paulin were doing and had the fastest lap time of the day.

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