Cold hard numbers 2005-2018: Win / loss records versus post-season days before MXdN

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10/9/2018 3:05 PM
Edited Date/Time: 10/10/2018 10:02 AM

I've seen a lot of theories and ideas about why Team USA didn't perform as expected, but the time gap really jumps out at me so I decided to look back in history to look at some trends.

I wanted to go back 20 years, but could only find MXGP schedules back to 2005. Granted there are other variables at play, but it's pretty clear the schedule deck has become significantly stacked against the US-based riders in recent years (all of which Team USA has lost.) In years Team USA won, the gap was between 7-29 days (and MXGP had a 21 day break in the year that USA had the 29 day break). In every year Team USA lost, there was at least a 22 day break while in those same years MXGP never had more than a 22 day break.

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I'm definitely not saying that we will ever dominate again, but France has shown that a solid team can get the job done. We can blame supercross, bike setup, lines, talent, training and team managers, but I think the numbers make a good case for the scheduling challenge. I don't know if this can turn around for Team USA until our series schedules end closer to the same times. At least then we could be in the conversation. After seeing the gaps since 2012, I also have a new appreciation for the U.S.-based riders who step up for this event.


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10/9/2018 3:11 PM

only date reallly changed , is final date of US nationals and moved back to august .. there is youre 2 weeks

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the funniest thing about this particular signature is that by the time you realise it doesn't say anything it's to late to stop reading it

10/9/2018 3:21 PM

RichardLoots wrote:

only date reallly changed , is final date of US nationals and moved back to august .. there is youre 2 weeks

ya thats a good point. But I think that plays back into the point of the direction that the nationals have gone in order to accomodate tv packages and more. The change in schedule, the change in track prep, the over emphasis on SX, that addition of new off season big money races, have all churned out riders who are lacking in skills necessary for dealing with varied tracks and (nothing against the racers) there are a lot of money races that will provide more than national pride

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"If you feel in control, you're not going fast enough" ~Mario Andretti

10/9/2018 3:35 PM

6 weeks away from racing has got to be the number one thing in my mind.

Other than European riders being very very fast riders

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10/9/2018 3:36 PM

Ferrandis had the same break as the US based riders right?

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10/9/2018 3:45 PM

Richard Tease II wrote:

Ferrandis had the same break as the US based riders right?

Yeah and he was beat by Prado, Lawrence, and Watson in motos.

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10/9/2018 3:47 PM

Richard Tease II wrote:

Ferrandis had the same break as the US based riders right?

Ya but ... he didn’t have to deal with all the travel that the American riders had to deal with ... you know ... Florida to Michigan is a long haul ! Not like the easy jaunt that say ... the aussies had .

The excuse train is pretty much full at this point yanks . What y’all need is a “talk shit pre-race/make excuses post race” of Nations . You would have no competition in that one . Pathetic .

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10/9/2018 3:49 PM

Richard Tease II wrote:

Ferrandis had the same break as the US based riders right?

Yup. Only thing is I believe he came back from injury a couple rounds in to the nationals so maybe he was a little more fresh/hungry.

Still... no excuses. Our guys got worked by a bunch of very talented riders who came ready to kick some ass.

Hoping we send another team next year... even with the odds against us.

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10/9/2018 3:52 PM

Having nationals that finish too early is the problem, because they have to finish before some other sport starts so it gets on TV.. its nothing to do with MXGP's schedule. Nations has always been 1 or 2 weeks after the season end, and it always will be.

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10/9/2018 3:57 PM

lestat wrote:

Ya but ... he didn’t have to deal with all the travel that the American riders had to deal with ... you know ... Florida to Michigan is a long haul ! Not like the easy jaunt that say ... the aussies had .

The excuse train is pretty much full at this point yanks . What y’all need is a “talk shit pre-race/make excuses post race” of Nations . You would have no competition in that one . Pathetic .

Look here bud, it's in the Constitution that we all get one excuse, and this is the one I'm picking!

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10/9/2018 3:59 PM

Richard Tease II wrote:

Ferrandis had the same break as the US based riders right?

He won't be racing a full SX Schedule. Plessinger, Barcia and Tomac are all gonna race the 17 rounds, in the 450 class. Dylan will race about the halve of that and can take short breaks then. But Roczen is also gonna race 17 rounds, probably also took a short break in those past 6 weeks, and also he was pretty off pace.

The problem with such a big time gap between last AMA National and the MXON is to find a schedule that keeps you on your toes. While the MXGP riders are grinding till 7 before the event, AMA riders are "keeping themselves busy" for 6 weeks. That is just the big difference. And in the past Supercross got used in the after talk to explain why America was so good at the MXON. AMA riders were more aggressive on track, stayed low on jumps, found their rhythm from the start instead of Europeans who needed some time ... now supercross ruins it? I think it just a schedule thing.

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10/9/2018 4:40 PM

There just isn't much emphasis to be good at mxdn for USA. I mean from the pay point. The big 6 want sx champ 1st, then mx champ, then what, monster cup? I wonder where the world champ really fits in to the big 6 plans. I don't think they care much about desnations.

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10/9/2018 4:43 PM

I think there's two other things worth mentioning.

In 2016, one week after the US National series concluded, Tomac went 1-1 at the USGP (granted Herlings hadn't moved up yet and it was at Glen Helen.) In 2017 also one week after the last national, he went 1-3 for second in the USGP at a track that isn't on the regular circuit. Tomac has beaten these guys in the past, and I don't think we are being sore losers to expect that the Eli we are used to seeing all summer should at least be in the mix for a podium.

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10/9/2018 4:51 PM

The nationals have to finish early for TV has to be a joke right? I mean it's not like the nationals are on NBC, ESPN, FOX or any big network. They are split between channels that play the same programming over and over for the most part. Need to stop bowing down to the riders threatening to go SX only, at a couple of breaks in the nationals (maybe during tour so we don't have a week delay so they can show the same stage race 4 times in one day) and make the season last as long as GP schedule. Also go back to Sat/Sun schedule, maybe had in some feeder 125 classes like the GP do to get future riders up to speed. Lord knows none of the fast amateurs do any local racing, only to qualify to LL. Maybe this will get them more track time against others besides their practice mates at the training facilities?

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10/9/2018 5:01 PM

yak651 wrote:

The nationals have to finish early for TV has to be a joke right? I mean it's not like the nationals are on NBC, ESPN, FOX or any big network. They are split between channels that play the same programming over and over for the most part. Need to stop bowing down to the riders threatening to go SX only, at a couple of breaks in the nationals (maybe during tour so we don't have a week delay so they can show the same stage race 4 times in one day) and make the season last as long as GP schedule. Also go back to Sat/Sun schedule, maybe had in some feeder 125 classes like the GP do to get future riders up to speed. Lord knows none of the fast amateurs do any local racing, only to qualify to LL. Maybe this will get them more track time against others besides their practice mates at the training facilities?

How about a two-week longer break between SX and nationals? Give the teams time to test, riders time to recover and come in 100%, fans a chance to regain some interest after 17 rounds of indoor monotony? And in the end have a better shot at MXdN. This sounds like a win-win-win scenario. Who says MEC has to be in October anyway? We are putting the cart before the horse and if we don't fix it soon, we are going to continue to erode the credibility of U.S. racing even more.

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10/9/2018 5:08 PM

Richard Tease II wrote:

Ferrandis had the same break as the US based riders right?

lestat wrote:

Ya but ... he didn’t have to deal with all the travel that the American riders had to deal with ... you know ... Florida to Michigan is a long haul ! Not like the easy jaunt that say ... the aussies had .

The excuse train is pretty much full at this point yanks . What y’all need is a “talk shit pre-race/make excuses post race” of Nations . You would have no competition in that one . Pathetic .

Top of the podium shit talker aren’t you.

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10/9/2018 5:19 PM

I'm sure some of you remember when the nationals started before supercross ended ala Gatorback national. What year did they move the start to the nationals after SX? I can't recall when that happened but it seemed like it was a good break for the riders back then.

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10/10/2018 2:47 AM

mark_swart wrote:

How about a two-week longer break between SX and nationals? Give the teams time to test, riders time to recover and come in 100%, fans a chance to regain some interest after 17 rounds of indoor monotony? And in the end have a better shot at MXdN. This sounds like a win-win-win scenario. Who says MEC has to be in October anyway? We are putting the cart before the horse and if we don't fix it soon, we are going to continue to erode the credibility of U.S. racing even more.

There was a big debate about this about a year ago, and I said back then the exact same thing about the nationals starting 2 weeks later. I also said that in that case, YS also needs to tighten up the GP schedule to have it end 2 weeks earlier. It’s a small sacrifice on both sides that would make it work a lot better for everyone. The date of MEC could also be argued, but it probably wouldn’t need to be changed if things would work out the way as said above.

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10/10/2018 2:56 AM
Edited Date/Time: 10/10/2018 2:58 AM

So the US season is too long and gruelling, and the AMA guys need a break, but having that break is a disadvantage.

And if there was no MXdN they’d go straight into the Monster Cup - which is more important - having had an even longer break.

I’m confused.

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10/10/2018 3:21 AM
Edited Date/Time: 10/10/2018 3:23 AM

MX It's like riding a bicycle. Once you learned it you never forget it. The speed is always there. Just mayby an endurance, but i don't belive that. So stop that nonsence. US guys trained a lot between AMA nationals and MXDN. Time frame is not an excuse

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Power is nothing without control

10/10/2018 3:56 AM

You can make a case for both scenarios but you cant make any general consensus. Gas prices has gone up during the same time, bikes has gotten lower in weight. Maybe it has a relation to the falling results? US have won with 28, 29 and 22 days before, but also lost with the same amount of time.

Recovery time is good after long season, gives some motivation and hunger back. If you have minor injury they get to heal. For Cairolli it was bad racing as late as 2 weeks before since he got injured, dropping his overall performance.

MXGP has been racing since January (they do a lot of pre-season races), traveling internationally every week more or less. They did race on Sunday, had to switch time schedule with around 6-7h and in 5 days get comfortable on US ground. A lot of the riders did not ride on their own bikes and got very little time to brake them in.

It is a zero sum game, and based on individual preference. Some will ride better with a little time off, some will do worse.

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10/10/2018 5:13 AM

yak651 wrote:

The nationals have to finish early for TV has to be a joke right? I mean it's not like the nationals are on NBC, ESPN, FOX or any big network. They are split between channels that play the same programming over and over for the most part. Need to stop bowing down to the riders threatening to go SX only, at a couple of breaks in the nationals (maybe during tour so we don't have a week delay so they can show the same stage race 4 times in one day) and make the season last as long as GP schedule. Also go back to Sat/Sun schedule, maybe had in some feeder 125 classes like the GP do to get future riders up to speed. Lord knows none of the fast amateurs do any local racing, only to qualify to LL. Maybe this will get them more track time against others besides their practice mates at the training facilities?

It doesn’t matter what channel they are on, the TV issue is about what’s on the OTHER channels at the time.

My guess is that the potential audience shifts pretty heavily to college football on Saturdays and NFL on Sundays and the semi-casual viewer is going to pick those over moto most often.

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10/10/2018 6:14 AM

Nothing to do with breaks, simply you don't have the RC, JS or RV out there anymore, plus MXGP riders have all risen their game to have a chance against the likes of AC, TG, RF and JH.

But the current ama field has been on the decline since RV retired, everyone was chasing him, before then everyone was chasing RC and JS, Tomac chased Dungey who which got his ass handed to him by JS and RV.

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10/10/2018 6:26 AM
Edited Date/Time: 10/10/2018 6:27 AM

Pretty interesting. Thanks for doing the work. I don't think this gets us to 6th on our home soil, but it certainly appears to have an impact.

*BTW - 1st rule of statistics is that correlation does not equal causation wink

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10/10/2018 7:10 AM

Nice work mark_swart, those numbers are very telling to me. And here are the previous schedules from 2005 back:

http://memotocross.fr/mx-mondial/mondial-2010-2019/index.php

http://memotocross.fr/mx-mondial/mx-resultats-1/index.php

DC
Racer X

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10/10/2018 7:11 AM

keinz wrote:

MX It's like riding a bicycle. Once you learned it you never forget it. The speed is always there. Just mayby an endurance, but i don't belive that. So stop that nonsence. US guys trained a lot between AMA nationals and MXDN. Time frame is not an excuse

Yea right. No practice is like racing. This is one of the things that needs to be addressed by both sides.

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10/10/2018 7:20 AM

Dc and the rest......man , I really , really wish our outdoor series could go two rounds longer. Or at least start two weeks later after SX stops , and thus pushing the outdoor schedule back some.

I wish.....we could some how get our nationals and outdoor series to coincide with the GP schedule towards the end , so the timing lines up better. Honestly DC....we need more nationals!!.....Less SX!

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10/10/2018 7:41 AM

jeffro503 wrote:

Dc and the rest......man , I really , really wish our outdoor series could go two rounds longer. Or at least start two weeks later after SX stops , and thus pushing the outdoor schedule back some.

I wish.....we could some how get our nationals and outdoor series to coincide with the GP schedule towards the end , so the timing lines up better. Honestly DC....we need more nationals!!.....Less SX!

We are never going to have less Supercross. What if we delay Supercross three weeks and throw an additional week break in between one of the nationals. This would make us a lot closer to the end of MXGP season.

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10/10/2018 7:43 AM

Yea. 10 supercross rounds. 16 outdoors.

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GP740
Since 1987

10/10/2018 7:49 AM

as long as Feld is making $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ there will never be less SXwhistling whistling whistling

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