Can Marvin win?

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8/5/2017 4:52 AM

I suck at calculations, so I'll leave that up to one of you...but, what are the real chances that Marvin Musquin could pull off a championship over Eli Tomac with the remaining rounds left? Is there a chance, especially with Baggett basically out of the picture with the thumb injury and all? I know he's 60-points behind Tomac going into Unadilla, and I'm not hoping ET will crash out or anything...but, do you think Marv can make up that deficit? Are there enough races left to do it?

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8/5/2017 5:28 AM

Not unless ET has a catastrophic failure. There are three rounds left, and if MM wins and ET takes 2nd in all six motos, he's only going to net 18 points. Eli has a 54 point lead right now, so he could actually DNF a moto and still have a comfortable lead...over Marvin. With BB 32 points back, it would make that scenario a little more interesting.

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8/5/2017 6:28 AM

DnF a make things interesting please smile

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8/5/2017 7:01 AM

cameron96 wrote:

DnF a make things interesting please smile

Maybe Marvin is just too much to hope for, but I'd really like to see Brake Bracket somehow come up again to challenge...

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8/5/2017 7:17 AM

It would be close if he had finished the southwick moto after that yard sale. Unless there was something wrong with the bike. I'm sure he regrets that.

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8/5/2017 7:50 AM

Dan-The-Man wrote:

It would be close if he had finished the southwick moto after that yard sale. Unless there was something wrong with the bike. I'm sure he regrets that.

I went back and looked at the results because I remembered another DNF. He took a 34th place at Muddy Creek in one moto. So that's two non-points scoring motos on the season. Then if you throw in the 16-6 he took at Colorado right after he hurt his knee, he dug himself quite the hole.

All Eli has to do is go into "championship mode" and he can take off early this season if he wants to.

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8/5/2017 7:53 AM

cameron96 wrote:

DnF a make things interesting please smile

davistld01 wrote:

Maybe Marvin is just too much to hope for, but I'd really like to see Brake Bracket somehow come up again to challenge...

Yea but he needs to fix his hand. It's really holding him back

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8/5/2017 8:03 AM

Yeah no, very unlikely.
Quickly calculated, Eli will have to go 4-4 4-4 4-3 to win, or even 3-3 3-3 3-DNF.

It would maybe be possible with Anderson, Baggett, Webb, Barcia and so on in better form. But with them dealing with their problems, it's hardly unlikely that Tomac finishes outside the top 5 (given he doesn't have to push hard to win, so chances that he crashes are a lot lower)

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8/5/2017 10:34 AM

Marvin won the last 4 motos, but I don't think Tomac was pushing for wins either. Hard to win if your getting shitty starts. No Marvin has no chance unless Tomac has a few yard sales.

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8/5/2017 12:31 PM

Never say never, but there is no chance if et3 doesn't have a dnf of some sort. That said, kawi has had a bunch of weird failures this yr....

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www.bettercallsaul.com
Die Antwoord

8/5/2017 12:41 PM
Edited Date/Time: 8/5/2017 12:42 PM

Dan-The-Man wrote:

It would be close if he had finished the southwick moto after that yard sale. Unless there was something wrong with the bike. I'm sure he regrets that.

If, if, if...

It wouldn't be close if Tomac hadn't had a brake failure at Glen Helen. Tomac probably would have won the SX if he didn't have another brake failure in Dallas...

etc.

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8/5/2017 12:48 PM
Edited Date/Time: 8/5/2017 12:49 PM

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts we'd all have a Merry christmas

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8/5/2017 12:53 PM

0%. Eli has learned his lesson about not needing to dominate every round.

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8/5/2017 1:47 PM

Dan-The-Man wrote:

It would be close if he had finished the southwick moto after that yard sale. Unless there was something wrong with the bike. I'm sure he regrets that.

zehn wrote:

If, if, if...

It wouldn't be close if Tomac hadn't had a brake failure at Glen Helen. Tomac probably would have won the SX if he didn't have another brake failure in Dallas...

etc.

The obvious difference being Tomac's were mechanicals and Musquin just decided to not finish the race.

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8/5/2017 2:03 PM

Rdubs19 wrote:

0%. Eli has learned his lesson about not needing to dominate every round.

If he just stays out of the braking bumps....

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2015 Beta 500 RS, history: 99 KTM 300, 87 CR250, 84 KLR 600, 82 GPZ 550, 81 KX 250, 80 KX 250, 79 Montesa 414 VE, 78 250 VB, 77 360 VB, 76 360 VA, 75 YZ 125, 74 TM 125, 72 TS 125, 60's West Bend Go Boy Kart

8/5/2017 3:00 PM

eli just needs to go DNF moto1 with a front brake problem and then moto2 front end washout and get 16th and then we got a championship title fight again!

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8/5/2017 3:19 PM

Rdubs19 wrote:

0%. Eli has learned his lesson about not needing to dominate every round.

Yeah...especially the rounds where Marvin is dominating.

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8/5/2017 3:25 PM

Is this a bad time to mention a new points system?

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2015 Beta 500 RS, history: 99 KTM 300, 87 CR250, 84 KLR 600, 82 GPZ 550, 81 KX 250, 80 KX 250, 79 Montesa 414 VE, 78 250 VB, 77 360 VB, 76 360 VA, 75 YZ 125, 74 TM 125, 72 TS 125, 60's West Bend Go Boy Kart

8/5/2017 4:24 PM

Whilst Eli states he hates losing, watching him bring home a safe 2nd makes me wonder about money. I wonder how much he loses in bonuses by getting 2nd not 1st? And how much of a difference if any that makes to a championship bonus

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8/5/2017 6:05 PM

Barrzy256 wrote:

Whilst Eli states he hates losing, watching him bring home a safe 2nd makes me wonder about money. I wonder how much he loses in bonuses by getting 2nd not 1st? And how much of a difference if any that makes to a championship bonus

I sure hope Marv can. Classy guy who's been putting in the work for many years.

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8/5/2017 6:49 PM

Dan-The-Man wrote:

The obvious difference being Tomac's were mechanicals and Musquin just decided to not finish the race.

If you have the ability to tell how much pain someone is through a TV screen, you should really work in a hospital. That kind of skill would probably pay pretty well...

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8/5/2017 8:14 PM

zehn wrote:

If, if, if...

It wouldn't be close if Tomac hadn't had a brake failure at Glen Helen. Tomac probably would have won the SX if he didn't have another brake failure in Dallas...

etc.

Dan-The-Man wrote:

The obvious difference being Tomac's were mechanicals and Musquin just decided to not finish the race.

Sully wrote:

If you have the ability to tell how much pain someone is through a TV screen, you should really work in a hospital. That kind of skill would probably pay pretty well...

So are you saying he didn't finish the moto because of the pain he was in?

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8/5/2017 9:53 PM

Dan-The-Man wrote:

So are you saying he didn't finish the moto because of the pain he was in?

No, but nice try. I'm saying you're not Marvin, and you have no idea how he felt after the crash, but since he wasn't writhing on the ground in pain, you ASSume he quit.

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8/5/2017 10:08 PM

Barrzy256 wrote:

Whilst Eli states he hates losing, watching him bring home a safe 2nd makes me wonder about money. I wonder how much he loses in bonuses by getting 2nd not 1st? And how much of a difference if any that makes to a championship bonus

Doesn't really matter in the end. Whatever he loses by finishing 2nd instead of 1st he'll make it back and then some when he brings the championship home.

Lose 100k in the next couple races. Makes a Million+ after wrapping up the title. Would you risk going out with an injury, losing the title and Million+ bonus in order to finish 1st o/a for a couple grand more in your bank account or settle for a safe 2nd or 3rd o/a and reap all the benefits of winning a championship?

I know what I would do.

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"Sorry Goose, but it's time to buzz the tower."

8/5/2017 10:20 PM

Sully wrote:

If you have the ability to tell how much pain someone is through a TV screen, you should really work in a hospital. That kind of skill would probably pay pretty well...

Dan-The-Man wrote:

So are you saying he didn't finish the moto because of the pain he was in?

Sully wrote:

No, but nice try. I'm saying you're not Marvin, and you have no idea how he felt after the crash, but since he wasn't writhing on the ground in pain, you ASSume he quit.

I didn't assume he quit. I said "he decided to not finish the race." Did he not go around the track get to the mechanics area, pull in and "not finish the race?" That is a fact. Funny you talk about ASSuming when you keep ASSuming it was pain but you don't really know since you said yourself " No, but nice try."



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8/5/2017 10:26 PM

I want to see Eli go full beast mode and also keep it together to win out the remaining races.

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8/6/2017 12:24 AM

Marvin and Blake should bunch em up! laughing

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8/6/2017 4:32 AM

Blake needs to start winning, but Marvin is on it and I doubt Blake has anything for him at this point. However, could you imagine the meltdown on Vital if Marvin began running 1-2 at the remaining races and Blake somehow finished ahead of Marvin in the rest of the motos. There would be a lot of popped veins in the heads of a certain rider. wink

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8/6/2017 5:08 AM

54 point lead with 3 rounds left. This things over. Congrats Eli!!

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8/6/2017 7:41 PM

I would love to see Marvin Win it

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