Can Herlings still win the championship ?

kaidoddragon
Jeffrey was 110 points down before Latvia. He is now 84 points down with more than 10 GP's to go. Do you think he can still take the championship home ?
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KirkChandler
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KirkChandler 5/10/2017 12:27am
5/10/2017 12:27am
Yes. Anything is possible.

But let's see how the hard pack tracks go.

Tony and Tim will be tough to beat consistently without a major crash/injury.
BWRAAP
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BWRAAP 5/10/2017 12:44am
5/10/2017 12:44am
I did some math after the second moto.. as i can remember he needs to gain 7 points on the points leader, every raceday. so 3.5 / heat... So Herlings 1 - Cairoli 2 ain't gonna cut it..

Herlings is still working on his 'comeback'. But after Latvia i guess his confidence is right where it used to be..

The deep field could be in his favour if he can step it up a notch..
Question
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Question 5/10/2017 12:58am
5/10/2017 12:58am
That is what crossed my mind too while watching on tv. 12 GP to go, that is about 7 points per GP. A 100% Herlings can, and right now it starts to click although he doesn't seem to ride with the same agression and speed. As said in this thread, let us see if he wins the next 2 GP. If he does, that means he should peak fitness wise during the summer. Then yes, the probability he does like Tomac is high!
oldrider
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oldrider 5/10/2017 1:17am
5/10/2017 1:17am
For sure he got confidence and speed back, but I don't see him faster than TC or TG yet. Below the best times of 2nd race in Latvia, on sand (his favourite), if he was a title contender who knows wether TC would have reeled him in...


Pos Nr Rider tlaptime in lap
1 84 Herlings, Jeffrey 1:55.059 8
2 222 Cairoli, Antonio 1:54.790 7

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Aryen
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Aryen 5/10/2017 1:22am
5/10/2017 1:22am
Not likely but he will gain points and probably end top 5, maybe top 3.
RG1
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RG1 5/10/2017 2:21am
5/10/2017 2:21am
I think he could, but it would take an unbelievable streak. Normally if a rider is 84 points back you would say no way, but I think the fact that he made up 26 points in one round makes it seem more possible. If he is able to go 1-1 the next few rounds (which will be very difficult) then it could get interesting
Crush
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Crush 5/10/2017 2:28am
5/10/2017 2:28am
Latvia was basically starts for him and not for the others right?
tommyjif
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tommyjif 5/10/2017 2:33am
5/10/2017 2:33am
kaidoddragon wrote:
Jeffrey was 110 points down before Latvia. He is now 84 points down with more than 10 GP's to go. Do you think he can still...
Jeffrey was 110 points down before Latvia. He is now 84 points down with more than 10 GP's to go. Do you think he can still take the championship home ?
I don't think so. Because his mistakes have shown a consistently repetitive path, and I feel as soon as he regains full confidence he will restart crashing...

Good luck to him though Wink
RG1
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RG1 5/10/2017 2:34am
5/10/2017 2:34am Edited Date/Time 5/10/2017 2:35am
Crush wrote:
Latvia was basically starts for him and not for the others right?
He was 1st every time they went on the track over the weekend, so it was a bit more than that. He was clearly the best guy. Doesn't mean to say that it will continue that way though
Andy_Greenney 5/10/2017 4:58am
5/10/2017 4:58am
I will wait to see on a few hard tracks before I get to excited about the possibility but it was definitely the confidence booster he needed.
themrtoad
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themrtoad 5/10/2017 5:06am
5/10/2017 5:06am
Latvia favoured the inside, so he got away good despite not having great starts. He will suffer more with so-so start at other tracks. I don't see Herling as strong enough to get up to 1st after starting around 10th. He is by no way a better starter than any of the riders in front of him so I don't see it happening at all.
Motocross83 5/10/2017 5:33am
5/10/2017 5:33am Edited Date/Time 5/10/2017 5:34am
He looks like the favourite in the sand (as we all long expected) and I think he's finally capable once more of winning everywhere else. He's certainly going to climb the rankings and of course can still win the title, but it's a tall order and can't be his focus for now.

You can see how tough it is in MX1 - even when someone is better than a rider nearby nothing happens quickly. Riders gradually catch each other and/or gradually pull away. In MX2 he made it look like a video game. I still think he's nowhere near his best though, and long, long term is capable of MX2-esq performances. But for now he's heading in the right direction, certainly an amazing turnaround in just a few races.
Frodad78
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Frodad78 5/10/2017 5:39am
5/10/2017 5:39am
Sure makes for another good comeback story if he can rattle off a few wins. I think this dude, like most, needs his confidence to be high in order to ride like we all know he can.
shaffstall721 5/10/2017 6:01am
5/10/2017 6:01am
Crush wrote:
Latvia was basically starts for him and not for the others right?
I think this is sarcasm? He may not have had the fastest lap time of the race, but he was extending his lead almost every lap.... IMO his hand is healed completely and not bothering him anymore, he will only get faster.....

I think he can pull it off, especially if Tim doesn't pick it up.
TriRacer27
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TriRacer27 5/10/2017 6:13am
5/10/2017 6:13am
This reminds me of something.... way back when....

Oh yeah, Pheonix SX and Eli Tomac.

As others have said, anything can happen.
crusty_xx
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crusty_xx 5/10/2017 6:38am
5/10/2017 6:38am
Well he made up 36 points over the last 2 weeks. And is now 84 points back with 12 rounds to go.
So yeah I'd say it's possible. IF he starts to dominate the field from now on (which isn't very likely). If he does that, IMO he has still a shot at this thing.

I mean look at that field, Nagl and Febvre are only gonna get better as the season progresses, then you have almost 8 guys that can beat Cairoli on some tracks. Cairoli isn't gonna finish 2nd everytime. He could easily go 5-7 on a bad day just because he doesn'T have the pace on this given track.
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Sodipop 5/10/2017 7:37am
5/10/2017 7:37am
Probably not but I'd like to see if he takes over as the fastest guy from here in out
RD757
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RD757 5/10/2017 9:19am
5/10/2017 9:19am
I bet he at least gets damn close.

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rmoto003
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rmoto003 5/10/2017 9:22am
5/10/2017 9:22am
It's definitely possible. If all the other riders decide not to show up, he has a pretty good chance.
Brownstone322 5/10/2017 10:42am
5/10/2017 10:42am Edited Date/Time 5/10/2017 10:43am
One good weekend does not a championship make. As soon as he has another finish outside the top 10 (and he probably will), this kinda talk will vanish.

Herlings doesn't have much history of being able to start poorly (or crash), then cut through the field the way Cairoli and Gajser sometimes do (or Webb did at Charlotte). Herlings seems to run from the front or not run at all. The field is deep; you're not always gonna be in the top three at the end of the first lap.

Then there's the spectre of the next crash/injury, which is only a matter of time.
EnvyMedia 5/10/2017 10:54am
5/10/2017 10:54am Edited Date/Time 5/10/2017 10:55am
Brownstone322 wrote:
One good weekend does not a championship make. As soon as he has another finish outside the top 10 (and he probably will), this kinda talk...
One good weekend does not a championship make. As soon as he has another finish outside the top 10 (and he probably will), this kinda talk will vanish.

Herlings doesn't have much history of being able to start poorly (or crash), then cut through the field the way Cairoli and Gajser sometimes do (or Webb did at Charlotte). Herlings seems to run from the front or not run at all. The field is deep; you're not always gonna be in the top three at the end of the first lap.

Then there's the spectre of the next crash/injury, which is only a matter of time.
Did you watch Valkenswaard?

Or any mx2 race in the past 5 years for that matter...
Brownstone322 5/10/2017 11:19am
5/10/2017 11:19am Edited Date/Time 5/10/2017 11:20am
EnvyMedia wrote:
Did you watch Valkenswaard?

Or any mx2 race in the past 5 years for that matter...
All of them. So? I saw Gajser win all four motos in Argentina and Mexico too. So?

DP#201
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DP#201 5/10/2017 11:50am
5/10/2017 11:50am
EnvyMedia wrote:
Did you watch Valkenswaard?

Or any mx2 race in the past 5 years for that matter...
Brownstone322 wrote:
All of them. So? I saw Gajser win all four motos in Argentina and Mexico too. So?

Remember Lommel 2012 MXdN? Dead last and run over, he fought back to finish 2 sec. of Cairoli in 2nd ( who by the way was 1st. from lap one)

Or Lierop qualirace in i think maybe '13, he crashed in the start, came back and won by 10 sec. ( 20 min quali race)
line-up
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line-up 5/10/2017 12:39pm
5/10/2017 12:39pm
DP#201 wrote:
Remember Lommel 2012 MXdN? Dead last and run over, he fought back to finish 2 sec. of Cairoli in 2nd ( who by the way was...
Remember Lommel 2012 MXdN? Dead last and run over, he fought back to finish 2 sec. of Cairoli in 2nd ( who by the way was 1st. from lap one)

Or Lierop qualirace in i think maybe '13, he crashed in the start, came back and won by 10 sec. ( 20 min quali race)
At the MXoN in Lommel 2012 Cairoli just controlled the race without pushing to the limit (and still he was a few corners away from overlapping Dungey, who was in six position...), just like Herlings did in the second moto in Latvia last weekend.

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USMCMXer 5/10/2017 12:43pm
5/10/2017 12:43pm
It is so hard to say in MXGP, as these guys are the least consistent of the lot. A good deal of diverse tracks remain and that caters to multiple winners. Every season there are huge points shake-ups in MXGP, so yeah, I think he has at least an outside chance. Wouldn't be surprised if he got to second and was mathematically in it still at the last round. Should make for an interesting season.
DP#201
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DP#201 5/10/2017 12:48pm
5/10/2017 12:48pm
line-up wrote:
At the MXoN in Lommel 2012 Cairoli just controlled the race without pushing to the limit (and still he was a few corners away from overlapping...
At the MXoN in Lommel 2012 Cairoli just controlled the race without pushing to the limit (and still he was a few corners away from overlapping Dungey, who was in six position...), just like Herlings did in the second moto in Latvia last weekend.

However, you can't deny Herling capability to go through the field, as Brownnose stated above he could not do. AND i think JH was a little closer to TC than he was comfortable with in the end, I think a lapper ruined JH last strike at TC in the end. Cool
EnvyMedia 5/10/2017 12:54pm
5/10/2017 12:54pm
EnvyMedia wrote:
Did you watch Valkenswaard?

Or any mx2 race in the past 5 years for that matter...
Brownstone322 wrote:
All of them. So? I saw Gajser win all four motos in Argentina and Mexico too. So?

So you saw Herlings started around 20th and worked his way up to 3rd both motos? Thought you said he doesn't know how to slice through the field.
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Motofinne 5/10/2017 12:57pm
5/10/2017 12:57pm
It's possible but his margin of error is minimal. He can't afford any races outside the top 5 if both Gajser and Cairoli stays healthy and makes all the rounds.

DimitrieSep 5/10/2017 1:39pm
5/10/2017 1:39pm
I think Herlings is a better points chaser then a points leader, he always crashes when he has a 100 points lead. i think he will stay way more focussed till the end off the season

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