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Herlings is probably out of it for the championship. Taking that into consideration, Cairoli is the ultra favorite. The only challengers he has are Gajser, Febvre, Desalle and eventually Paulin. Febvre lost a bunch of points yersteday, Desalle and Paulin are looking good but a little off pace (for this first GP even though they both made an awesome come back in race 2).
Gajser was looking awesome though. He got passed by AC, okay, but he kept him honest in race 2 and was able to build a 30+ second gap on 3rd which is huge. The question is, can he find that little plus to got by Cairoli and challenge him for this title ?