This thread is informational for a lot of members who don't seem to really follow the GPs
Herlings broke his hand shortly before the season.
During the first four rounds, Herlings scored 59 points and Cairoli scored 136. A gap of 77 points right off the bat.
Since then the points are Cairoli 495 to Herlings 471. This includes the last GP in which Herlings was running second and looking good to probably win the moto and his chain de-railed.
Herlings probably still suffering from affects of the injury through Valkenswaard where he scored a 3-3 finish. He had previously never lost a moto there.
They have been the two best guys all season and Cairoli generally starts quite a bit better than Herlings. I'd say that Cairoli has stayed healthy and used his championship racecraft to be in the position he is now. I would also say that Herlings is probably the faster of the two more times than not with all things being equal.