AC Will Win The 450 National Title This Year

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9/8/2020 9:04 AM

And here is why- His Kawi seems on point, while his teammate constantly has bike issues, Marv isn't quite back to full conditioning yet, Zach seems to have lots of small mistakes, K-Roc took the summer off, and Webb has back issues. Lets face it, the 450 class is RIPE for the picking, especially by someone with AC's raw speed...

Btw... the last time I did a new thread like this was in the Fresh Dirt days when I posted that RC would win Daytona his rookie year in the 250s (2000)....

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www.bettercallsaul.com
Die Antwoord

9/8/2020 9:07 AM

I’m a fan of AC but I’m gonna go with a hard no.

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9/8/2020 9:09 AM

In your dreams, maybe.

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"Sorry Goose, but it's time to buzz the tower."

9/8/2020 9:16 AM

uuuuuuhhhh.... khakis

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Never try to argue with idiots; they will only bring you down to their level.....and being more experienced, they will beat you at their own game!

2020.5 KTM 450 SXF FE
2006 KX250

9/8/2020 9:16 AM

Have friends that have connections in the CO area. They tell me that's where all the good Marry Jane is at..

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Speak softly and carry a big stick.

9/8/2020 9:19 AM

gt80rider wrote:

And here is why- His Kawi seems on point, while his teammate constantly has bike issues, Marv isn't quite back to full conditioning yet, Zach seems to have lots of small mistakes, K-Roc took the summer off, and Webb has back issues. Lets face it, the 450 class is RIPE for the picking, especially by someone with AC's raw speed...

Btw... the last time I did a new thread like this was in the Fresh Dirt days when I posted that RC would win Daytona his rookie year in the 250s (2000)....

Both AC and Eli’s bikes are on point. The difference is how they ride them and mostly who gets the better starts.

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9/8/2020 9:20 AM

AC has big mistakes fairly often. If he can ride like he did yesterday then yeah maybe. But he hasnt proven to be that guy yet.

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9/8/2020 9:21 AM

Photo
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9/8/2020 9:21 AM

H4L wrote:

Have friends that have connections in the CO area. They tell me that's where all the good Marry Jane is at..

Don’t blame the weed! This might be a case of drinking bong water.

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9/8/2020 9:25 AM
Edited Date/Time: 9/8/2020 9:40 AM

kb228 wrote:

AC has big mistakes fairly often. If he can ride like he did yesterday then yeah maybe. But he hasnt proven to be that guy yet.

My thoughts are he's building his program this yr. & can potentially be a title threat next season. He appears to be getting it figured out in the big bike class.

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Speak softly and carry a big stick.

9/8/2020 9:28 AM
Edited Date/Time: 9/8/2020 9:29 AM

2021 will begin the AC, Sexton and Ferrandis era.

And the best part is that none of them are on KTM's.. yet.

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Current Rides: 2019 YZ450F & 2015 YZ250
Past Rides: 2018 YZ125, 2007 YZ250, 2005 YZ250F

9/8/2020 9:31 AM

Isnt he 42 pts back??? If so, good luck.

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9/8/2020 9:32 AM

GripNRip617 wrote:

2021 will begin the AC, Sexton and Ferrandis era.

And the best part is that none of them are on KTM's.. yet.

Also CW2.. The kid has shown he has a bull dog mentality that can't be taught. You either have it or you don't.

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Speak softly and carry a big stick.

9/8/2020 9:32 AM

Title should be changed to:

"If AC92 can stay healthy for the remaining rounds, he will continue to impress"

I am a fan, I would love to see him get a title. But he needs to reduce his mistakes, continue turning heads, and focus on a SX title in 2021.

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9/8/2020 9:35 AM

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9/8/2020 9:50 AM

Realistically.. no.
Photo

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9/8/2020 10:13 AM

Negative ghost rider.

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9/8/2020 10:39 AM

At this point, it is more Zach's to lose, than anybody else's to win.

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9/8/2020 11:13 AM

Here's a "Math with Falcon" moment:

AC is 42 points down to Zacho, which means he'll have to gain 43 points in 8 motos to take it. That means 5.4 points per moto, or approximately 3 positions at the sharp end of the pack. I don't see Adam winning every moto from here on out, so let's assume an average finish of 2nd; Zach would have to finish 5th or worse each time out.


A statistically more likely scenario has Marvin taking the title away from Zach with 29 points in 8 motos; that's 3.6 points per gate drop, or about 2 positions at the top part of the results. That would still require #25 to take 2nd place in every moto and Zach to finish 4th or worse.

Less statistically likely but arguably more probable is Eli Tomac winning all the remaining motos. He would need 5.9 points per moto, or about 3 positions ahead of Zach. Still 4th or worse for Osborne in EVERY moto going forward.

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Braaapin' aint easy.

9/8/2020 12:06 PM

I am a huge fan of him and Osborne so I would love either of them to win it but I think Osborne has this year locked in ..

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9/8/2020 12:11 PM

A little bad luck from Osborne could crack this thing wide open again. Not likely to happen but it could

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9/8/2020 2:17 PM

gt80rider wrote:

And here is why- His Kawi seems on point, while his teammate constantly has bike issues, Marv isn't quite back to full conditioning yet, Zach seems to have lots of small mistakes, K-Roc took the summer off, and Webb has back issues. Lets face it, the 450 class is RIPE for the picking, especially by someone with AC's raw speed...

Btw... the last time I did a new thread like this was in the Fresh Dirt days when I posted that RC would win Daytona his rookie year in the 250s (2000)....

RC's rookie year in 250 sx was 1999 just sayin

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9/8/2020 2:34 PM

I'd like to see any of the top 5 win. I'd like it to be close when Pala comes around.

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9/8/2020 4:23 PM
Edited Date/Time: 9/8/2020 4:24 PM

Osborne has been inconsistent in the past and although this year he is probably riding better than he ever has history tells me not to bet the farm on him.

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9/8/2020 7:44 PM

Spudnut wrote:

A little bad luck from Osborne could crack this thing wide open again. Not likely to happen but it could

But it is 2020 so I've put my surprised face away until next year.

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The older I get, the faster I was.

9/20/2020 9:00 AM

smile
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www.bettercallsaul.com
Die Antwoord

9/20/2020 9:07 AM

gt80rider wrote: smile

Getting warmer! wink

I still put my money on Zacho, though.

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BT20 👉 02/20/20 👉#TICKLETIMEBITCHES

9/20/2020 9:26 AM

Falcon wrote:

Here's a "Math with Falcon" moment:

AC is 42 points down to Zacho, which means he'll have to gain 43 points in 8 motos to take it. That means 5.4 points per moto, or approximately 3 positions at the sharp end of the pack. I don't see Adam winning every moto from here on out, so let's assume an average finish of 2nd; Zach would have to finish 5th or worse each time out.


A statistically more likely scenario has Marvin taking the title away from Zach with 29 points in 8 motos; that's 3.6 points per gate drop, or about 2 positions at the top part of the results. That would still require #25 to take 2nd place in every moto and Zach to finish 4th or worse.

Less statistically likely but arguably more probable is Eli Tomac winning all the remaining motos. He would need 5.9 points per moto, or about 3 positions ahead of Zach. Still 4th or worse for Osborne in EVERY moto going forward.

What are the updated statistics now?

I didn’t think that AC had much of a chance when this thread was started, but with Osborne’s bad luck yesterday and AC’s speed the last couple of weeks, I think that he really could win the thing.

If AC rides like the last few weekends, he could beat anyone on the line easily. If he gets just a tiny lapse in concentration, though, he seems much more likely than the other top guys to yard sale out of contention.

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9/20/2020 9:29 AM

gt80rider wrote:

And here is why- His Kawi seems on point, while his teammate constantly has bike issues, Marv isn't quite back to full conditioning yet, Zach seems to have lots of small mistakes, K-Roc took the summer off, and Webb has back issues. Lets face it, the 450 class is RIPE for the picking, especially by someone with AC's raw speed...

Btw... the last time I did a new thread like this was in the Fresh Dirt days when I posted that RC would win Daytona his rookie year in the 250s (2000)....

Still 6 moto's left to run. Anything can happen (#16 & #25 proved this in moto 2 yesterday)

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Brapasaurus Rex

9/20/2020 11:47 AM

Spudnut wrote:

A little bad luck from Osborne could crack this thing wide open again. Not likely to happen but it could

captmoto wrote:

But it is 2020 so I've put my surprised face away until next year.

👆🏻

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