450 MX predictions

smee113
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smee113 5/23/2021 2:29pm
5/23/2021 2:29pm Edited Date/Time 5/23/2021 2:34pm
I feel like preseason hype usually gets blown out of proportion, but honestly, I can't remember a year where this many riders could win the title. Tomac and Roczen might be favorites on paper, but there's good reason to believe both may be missing their edge this summer. Osborne would be next in line, but his lingering back issues are a big red flag. Webb dominated the later half of Supercross, but hasn't done much on the 450 outdoors. Musquin has the speed, has never been able to finish the job on the 450. After that, it would be Sexton and AC, but both still hit the ground too much.

If I was a betting man, I'd put my money on Roczen; I know Webb got in his head during Supercross, but he has to believe he's a better rider outdoors than Webb is, and will surely be looking for redemption.
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blockhead17 5/23/2021 3:17pm
5/23/2021 3:17pm
Real question is that if Marv wins, does Ryno take all the credit?
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IWreckALot
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IWreckALot 5/23/2021 4:57pm
5/23/2021 4:57pm
D_L118 wrote:
I’m surprised so many people are counting Webb out. I have a feeling he will be very strobg this summer.
That’s why I like webb. He doesn’t make any excuses and figures out where and how to improve. Just a straight workhorse.
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BS12
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BS12 5/23/2021 5:09pm
5/23/2021 5:09pm
Would anyone agree with my theorizing that we may see a rejuvenated Tomac this Summer? Decisions like leaving Kawasaki, the team you've been with for 6 years, aren't made overnight, and could well have been on his mind since early in the SX season, maybe even earlier? That's a huge burden to carry while trying to carry on with and focus on the job at hand.

Would love to see a care free (in a good way) Tomac come out swinging Outdoors and lay down a reminder to the field of what he is capable of and who he (still) is.
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ZOBITO
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ZOBITO 5/24/2021 2:59am
5/24/2021 2:59am
ZOBITO wrote:
People who think Musquin will get a 450 title usually end up being wrong.
Wink
ZOBITO wrote:
This is not an opinion, it's a fact, just like Maverick confirmed.
Tongue
Downvoting reality doesn't make it less real.
Wink
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slaveO
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slaveO 5/24/2021 3:09am
5/24/2021 3:09am
TeamFlannel wrote:
OP read like a commercial for the Nationals, “never before, perfect storm, first season ever, etc, etc-overplayed when you hear/read it every other year. All that...
OP read like a commercial for the Nationals, “never before, perfect storm, first season ever, etc, etc-overplayed when you hear/read it every other year. All that will change after the first race. Even more so after the second race. Can Baby Jesus fulfill his prophecy? My eye will be on him, but my money would be on Moosecan. I absolutely love watching that dude ride! So technical, what is it with French dudes? (I loved watching Bayle on a 500 as well, Pourcell, Ferrandis). MM25 FTW
French riders always had the tendency to make up their lack of fitness with technique TongueCool
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CPR
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CPR 5/24/2021 3:39am
5/24/2021 3:39am
blockhead17 wrote:
Real question is that if Marv wins, does Ryno take all the credit?
That’s probably the one thing there’s no doubt about 😂
-MAVERICK-
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-MAVERICK- 5/24/2021 6:25am
5/24/2021 6:25am Edited Date/Time 5/24/2021 10:29am
ZOBITO wrote:
Downvoting reality doesn't make it less real.
Wink
You being in denial doesn't make it less real. Grinning
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kpiper
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kpiper 5/24/2021 8:12am
5/24/2021 8:12am
Eli turns it up a notch.

Kenny plays tougher.

Either could win the title.

Zack and Webb will be consistent and in the hunt at the end.

If AC & CS don't crash they will win a lot.
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THE mx addict 5/24/2021 8:21am
5/24/2021 8:21am
slaveO wrote:
French riders always had the tendency to make up their lack of fitness with technique TongueCool
It was true a very long time ago. Not anymore.
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THE mx addict 5/24/2021 8:24am
5/24/2021 8:24am
RalphS wrote:
I think we're forgetting about Plessinger and Ferrandis to fight for podiums and eventually wins.
Almost nobody talks about Ferrandis yet... But he will turn some heads this summer in TGO.
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Mavetism
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Mavetism 5/24/2021 8:32am
5/24/2021 8:32am
THE mx addict wrote:
Almost nobody talks about Ferrandis yet... But he will turn some heads this summer in TGO.
I think most people don't mention him because we all know how Ferrandis starts and it for sure doesn't help him in a stacked field like that, but nobody would be surprised if he wins motos with a good start.
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-MAVERICK- 5/24/2021 8:36am
5/24/2021 8:36am
RalphS wrote:
I think we're forgetting about Plessinger and Ferrandis to fight for podiums and eventually wins.
THE mx addict wrote:
Almost nobody talks about Ferrandis yet... But he will turn some heads this summer in TGO.
Plessinger said the bike is great. I'm thinking we'll be seeing the boys in blue up front quite a bit.

5 more days.
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-MAVERICK-
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-MAVERICK- 5/24/2021 8:37am
5/24/2021 8:37am
Mavetism wrote:
I think most people don't mention him because we all know how Ferrandis starts and it for sure doesn't help him in a stacked field like...
I think most people don't mention him because we all know how Ferrandis starts and it for sure doesn't help him in a stacked field like that, but nobody would be surprised if he wins motos with a good start.
Tomac doesn't have great starts and he's done very well.
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davistld01
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davistld01 5/24/2021 8:42am
5/24/2021 8:42am
IWreckALot wrote:
That’s why I like webb. He doesn’t make any excuses and figures out where and how to improve. Just a straight workhorse.
Webb will always remind of Villopoto in that respect. Neither guy has a personality that I can hang with personally...but that doesn't matter, both guys are stone cold killers on the track. They were both there to do one thing: win a championship. They both know/knew how to win, and how to take advantage of the weaknesses in their competition.
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THE mx addict 5/24/2021 9:11am
5/24/2021 9:11am
Mavetism wrote:
I think most people don't mention him because we all know how Ferrandis starts and it for sure doesn't help him in a stacked field like...
I think most people don't mention him because we all know how Ferrandis starts and it for sure doesn't help him in a stacked field like that, but nobody would be surprised if he wins motos with a good start.
Ferrandis will take much better starts this summer, believe me !
Wink
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Up Wind
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Up Wind 5/24/2021 12:54pm
5/24/2021 12:54pm Edited Date/Time 5/24/2021 1:05pm
Jake86 wrote:
My top 5

ET3
AC9
Bam Bam
Marv
Sexton not in any particular order...

#1 That was easyTomac
#2 Maybe I should have stayed AP
#3 I can't believe AP has been beating me Ken
#4 I'll finally show Webb I was a better AM AC
#5 I need a job Ozzy
#6 I should have got a 2 year deal Marv
#7 If I was in shape Chase
#8 I already made 4 milly Webb
#9 I can't win with a 15th place start this year?Dill
#10 Is it time to go home yet Jason
#11 Ill get good starts and fade Craig
#12 I thought everyone can win on a KTM Justin.

I thought I'd add their thoughts in the last moto of the season.
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MX Culture
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MX Culture 5/24/2021 1:10pm
5/24/2021 1:10pm
Anyone seen the entry lists yet?
I've looked everywhere.
Mav?
zehn
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zehn 5/24/2021 1:30pm
5/24/2021 1:30pm
wreckitrandy wrote:
Kawasaki's up front the first couple of races. Webb 4th or 5th. Then, Paul picks it up. Paul wins the title. Then, people say,,,, 'Well, if...
Kawasaki's up front the first couple of races. Webb 4th or 5th. Then, Paul picks it up. Paul wins the title. Then, people say,,,, 'Well, if so and so hadn't crashed or, didn't have bike problems, Webb wouldn't have won.' Paul takes the check to the bank and laughs out loud.
Lol why are Webb fans always like this
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Mavetism
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Mavetism 5/24/2021 3:21pm
5/24/2021 3:21pm
Mavetism wrote:
I think most people don't mention him because we all know how Ferrandis starts and it for sure doesn't help him in a stacked field like...
I think most people don't mention him because we all know how Ferrandis starts and it for sure doesn't help him in a stacked field like that, but nobody would be surprised if he wins motos with a good start.
THE mx addict wrote:
Ferrandis will take much better starts this summer, believe me !
Wink
Let's hope so! He had some unreal speed in SX already, coming from last to a top 5th a couple times this season. I think he will do better in outdoors results wise, I mean Ferrandis and AC were pretty much equally fast in 2019 and AC crushed it last year.
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Kennyfreemoney 5/24/2021 3:24pm
5/24/2021 3:24pm
I didn’t read the whole thread but here’s my *uneducated* guess

Tomac and Osborne battlefield the title. Both winning a fair amount of overalls. Could go either way in the end. Possibly going to whoever doesn’t have a DNF. Swaying in Osborne’s way if there’s a mudder.

Barcia, Musqin, AC, Plessinger, Sexton, Ferrandis, Roczen, and Anderson all getting Moto wins, a few of them win an overall or 2. The overall championship positions for all of these guys could be put in any order from 3-10 and make sense.

Just my opinion. Go ahead and disagree 😂
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-MAVERICK- 5/24/2021 3:40pm
5/24/2021 3:40pm
Where do you guys have Nicoletti? I personally think he's riding better than ever. He's been on a Yamaha for a number of years now and likes the bike.

I can see him finishing 8th in points.

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Black Diesel Bomber 5/24/2021 4:00pm
5/24/2021 4:00pm
This is very tough to predict because any one of these guys can win races...but here's my prediction for final championship standings. If AC and Ferrandis can stay on two wheels I see them closer to the front but we'll see what happens:

1. Zach
2. Tomac
3. Roczen
4. Webb
5. Marvin
6. Sexton
7. Barcia
8. Anderson
9. Plessinger
10. AC
11. Ferrandis

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CPR
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CPR 5/24/2021 4:54pm
5/24/2021 4:54pm
-MAVERICK- wrote:
Where do you guys have Nicoletti? I personally think he's riding better than ever. He's been on a Yamaha for a number of years now and...
Where do you guys have Nicoletti? I personally think he's riding better than ever. He's been on a Yamaha for a number of years now and likes the bike.

I can see him finishing 8th in points.

I see him as a sleeper for 5-10th overall.
Top 5 at certain tracks, 10-15th on a bad day.

People forget how good he was on the JGR Yamaha. Hope to see him surprise a few, yet again.
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mb60
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mb60 5/24/2021 5:12pm
5/24/2021 5:12pm
Black Diesel Bomber wrote:
This is very tough to predict because any one of these guys can win races...but here's my prediction for final championship standings. If AC and Ferrandis...
This is very tough to predict because any one of these guys can win races...but here's my prediction for final championship standings. If AC and Ferrandis can stay on two wheels I see them closer to the front but we'll see what happens:

1. Zach
2. Tomac
3. Roczen
4. Webb
5. Marvin
6. Sexton
7. Barcia
8. Anderson
9. Plessinger
10. AC
11. Ferrandis

So you think Wilson , JS17, Antsie and Craig and Bogle are not worth mentioning ? The class is deep and someone mentioned Nicoletti is a 5-8th place guy ?
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Black Diesel Bomber 5/24/2021 5:17pm
5/24/2021 5:17pm
Black Diesel Bomber wrote:
This is very tough to predict because any one of these guys can win races...but here's my prediction for final championship standings. If AC and Ferrandis...
This is very tough to predict because any one of these guys can win races...but here's my prediction for final championship standings. If AC and Ferrandis can stay on two wheels I see them closer to the front but we'll see what happens:

1. Zach
2. Tomac
3. Roczen
4. Webb
5. Marvin
6. Sexton
7. Barcia
8. Anderson
9. Plessinger
10. AC
11. Ferrandis

mb60 wrote:
So you think Wilson , JS17, Antsie and Craig and Bogle are not worth mentioning ? The class is deep and someone mentioned Nicoletti is a...
So you think Wilson , JS17, Antsie and Craig and Bogle are not worth mentioning ? The class is deep and someone mentioned Nicoletti is a 5-8th place guy ?
Yes they are worth mentioning but I was trying to pick my top 10 and it ran over into top 11. What’s your prediction for the top 15 then? It’s tough...

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