450 MX predictions

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5/20/2021 1:59 PM

Entering this year we have one of the healthiest fields we have had in over 20 years. Nearly every factory 450 guy is lining up in somewhat decent shape and unlike most years we have no clear favorites. Tomac has not been “Tomac” since the 2020 SX series and can no longer be the clear favorite. We have no idea what Roczen we are getting. I’m sure there will be at least one National where he makes everyone look like beginners but what about the rest? If Tomac and Roczen ride like their old selves they run away with this easily but I don’t think that’s going to happen. AC is coming in with a head start of practice and had one of the better rookie 450 MX seasons we have ever seen. Zac has his back issue still lurking. How bad will this effect him? Sexton could be a dark horse for the title, he has serious top speed and was pretty consistent last year for a rookie. Musquin was coming in strong at the end of SX and IMO is even better outdoors. Musquin is the best rider in the world IMO to not have a major 450 title (SX,MX,MXGP) Lastly we have Webb, we have heard he is ripping right now according to some guys who have seen him and will this be his break out summer and will he shed the SX only tag that follows him? I think the title comes down to one of these guys but putting them in order is impossible for me right now. I think AC wins the opener and after that I have no idea. What do you guys think?

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5/20/2021 2:05 PM

The only person i would add to that list is Barcia, with a 4th overall in SX and being comfortable on the GasGas its hard to count him out.

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5/20/2021 2:05 PM

I like to wait for the gate to drop before speculating since until then nobody has a clue.

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5/20/2021 2:11 PM

I think we're forgetting about Plessinger and Ferrandis to fight for podiums and eventually wins.

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5/20/2021 2:14 PM

RalphS wrote:

I think we're forgetting about Plessinger and Ferrandis to fight for podiums and eventually wins.

Thought about it, Ferrandis starts are a problem. Maybe Plessinger wins a moto here and there but I don’t see them as title threats. Obviously I could be very wrong.

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5/20/2021 2:14 PM

AC is going to start waxing the field

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5/20/2021 2:17 PM
Edited Date/Time: 5/20/2021 2:24 PM

Call me crazy, but I think this is the year Marv gets it done. My top 5 in the season standings.

Marv- tons of motivation
Tomac- thinking about the blue bike
Zacko- rusty and back issues
AC- fast but inconsistent
Webb- fast but doesn't care (sx title)

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Official member of the ElHombre fan club


Team MooseCAN

Deano2021

5/20/2021 2:18 PM

BUBBA COMEBACK.

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5/20/2021 2:23 PM

Not sure why but I feel like AC wins this title. He was solid outdoors last year
But then again I wouldn't be surprised if he's only the 5th best guy
Definitely has been a while since we had a field like this going into outdoors

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5/20/2021 2:28 PM

I don't know which Kenny is going to show up, but I could watch him ride all day.

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by Ken Roczen (@kenroczen94)

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"Sorry Goose, but it's time to buzz the tower."

5/20/2021 2:31 PM

If Zach is healthy, put him right there... If not, drop from the list. Just rewatch WW Ranch from last year. It will put you at ease considering him a favorite. AC will have to stay healthy. He wins this year, multiple times, I think Sexton might too... But I still don't know if they will be consistent enough. Roczen and Tomac... Damn, don't know what to think of them yet. Could be the 2 to beat and could be both are being overtaken by the youth in the class. Marv will be better this year, just don't know if he's strong enough to get it done. Webb? Some tracks yes, some tracks no... Same with Anderson and Barcia.

Out on a limb... Just a guess.

AC
Zach
Roczen
Marv
Tomac
Webb
Sexton

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'75-'83 through the minicycle boom.
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I was fast... But being fast is relative to who else is on the track with you.

ZachO fan! ZO16

TG243 fan!

5/20/2021 3:17 PM

hartebreak wrote:

Call me crazy, but I think this is the year Marv gets it done. My top 5 in the season standings.

Marv- tons of motivation
...more

This is mostly accurate except a few things:

Wacko is not going to be that rusty. He will be toward the front quite often.
Webb is going to be a lot better and in the title chase.

I'm going to throw Anderson's name out there...his results outdoors are going to command a better pay at Kawi next year. I think he will be good.

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#TeamSway
SwayMX.com

5/20/2021 3:20 PM
Edited Date/Time: 5/20/2021 3:34 PM

-MAVERICK- wrote:

I don't know which Kenny is going to show up, but I could watch him ride all day.

View this post on Instagram
...more

He showed some flashes of 2016 in 2019 already, but what really fucked him was the Florida national I think (heat issues), after that he was just a different rider until Unadilla. I hope we won't see any weird fatigue rides this season.

Man this field is stacked this year. It's really hard to make predictions with all these riders who can win motos.

My top 5

Kenny
AC
Tomac
Marv
Sexton

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5/20/2021 3:36 PM

I have no clue. My one guess with people throwing ACs name out is that Sexton finished the season in a higher position than Adam.

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5/20/2021 4:14 PM

Dungey

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5/20/2021 4:17 PM

AC and Sexton both bounce of the ground a bit much for me to count them in for a title.. but both will be fast as shit

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5/20/2021 4:23 PM

We could play ifs all day long.... but if AC didn’t crash at LL in the mud he wins the title last year. I predict a title fight between AC, ZO, and Sextown

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5/20/2021 4:31 PM

Ken while fun to watch will melt with the summer heat and most likely not finish the series. Not trying to hate on the guy but he doesn’t seem to have the grit from his prior championship seasons. ET is all over the map so who knows. Kinda feel like it’s Osborne with a repeat or Webb just because he’s not been the guy outside yet and is relentless.

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5/20/2021 4:33 PM

skeef wrote:

AC is going to start waxing the field

With his past performance that maybe an option, literally.
The future of manscaping looks bright.

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5/20/2021 4:35 PM
Edited Date/Time: 5/20/2021 4:36 PM

-MAVERICK- wrote:

I don't know which Kenny is going to show up, but I could watch him ride all day.

View this post on Instagram
...more

It might dazzle some, but after watching Everts and Townley, Kenny is a hack at that.

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5/20/2021 4:47 PM

I don't know who will win, but I can't wait to see.

ROOOOSEEEBUUUD!!!!!

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5/20/2021 4:52 PM

DF313 wrote:

I don't know who will win, but I can't wait to see.

ROOOOSEEEBUUUD!!!!!

Photo
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5/20/2021 5:21 PM

-MAVERICK- wrote:

I don't know which Kenny is going to show up, but I could watch him ride all day.

View this post on Instagram
...more
Mavetism wrote:

He showed some flashes of 2016 in 2019 already, but what really fucked him was the Florida national I think (heat issues), ...more

He will wreck everyone until the fade starts then it's a toss up who picks up the pieces. I'm so pumped for outdoors

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5/20/2021 6:02 PM

-MAVERICK- wrote:

I don't know which Kenny is going to show up, but I could watch him ride all day.

View this post on Instagram
...more
Mavetism wrote:

He showed some flashes of 2016 in 2019 already, but what really fucked him was the Florida national I think (heat issues), ...more

Chris_Buehler wrote:

He will wreck everyone until the fade starts then it's a toss up who picks up the pieces. I'm so pumped for outdoors

Mmm tho does he fade outdoors or only In sx in previous years ?

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5/20/2021 6:11 PM

-MAVERICK- wrote:

I don't know which Kenny is going to show up, but I could watch him ride all day.

View this post on Instagram
...more
inthebadboycorner wrote:

It might dazzle some, but after watching Everts and Townley, Kenny is a hack at that.

Seems to be the hot new skill ripping ruts with your feet on the pegs but definitely risky for the ankle twist & knee. Levi kitchen been doing it a lot I noticed.

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Washed up mid pack B rider

5/20/2021 6:34 PM

Muffin69 wrote:

The only person i would add to that list is Barcia, with a 4th overall in SX and being comfortable on the GasGas its hard to ...more

I hear ya, but he’s never really been a title contender outdoors. I think podiums are a guarantee with a possible win but for the title I don’t think so. Maybe though the stars align and for him as he realistically is the only one who you can make an argument for.

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5/20/2021 6:59 PM

I am going with Tomac to get title number 4. Pala and Thunder Valley to start the season, then Hangtown and Pala to end the season. I don't think its going out on a limb to say he can win those 4 rounds. I think you can stamp that he wins at least 2 of the following: Southwick, Red Bud, Spring Creek, and Washougal. The only rounds I see him not having a chance at winning are Unadilla & High Point. I think whoever the champion is wins the championship on pure consistency. I don't see a rider winning more than 8 motos. But back to my Tomac argument, you take away LL2 then Eli is only 5 points off Osbourne last season.

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5/20/2021 7:01 PM
Edited Date/Time: 5/20/2021 7:04 PM

Mavetism wrote:

He showed some flashes of 2016 in 2019 already, but what really fucked him was the Florida national I think (heat issues), ...more

Chris_Buehler wrote:

He will wreck everyone until the fade starts then it's a toss up who picks up the pieces. I'm so pumped for outdoors

bowl wrote:

Mmm tho does he fade outdoors or only In sx in previous years ?

He was pretty damn good in 2019. Taking away Eli, he destroyed the field. Eli was just about as good as he's ever been that yr so how good Ken was kinda flew under the radar
Edit: I just looked at the points standing and Marv was pretty close to Ken in points. Huh don't remember Marv being so good in '19. Sleeper for this summer?

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5/20/2021 7:05 PM

I'd like to see Ferrandis taking a win

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5/20/2021 7:08 PM

Id like to see max anstie throw a wrench into the results.

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