After listening to the press conference, post race interviews, Pulp review, etc; the narrative appears to be "Sexton won because of the whoops". I wondered if that was actually the case. The whoops represented about 17 seconds of a 54 second lap, or a little over 31% (this was based on looking at Chase's lap 15, I just tried to pick a middle of the road lap for Sexton).
I went back to the replay of the race to try and determine where Sexton had his biggest lead and best I can tell it was around the 3:00 minute mark. So, approximately lap 20. That lead was 19.7 seconds according to the broadcast and about 17 seconds according to the segment chart.
For those first 20 laps there were 152 recorded segment times for Sexton and Webb (there were a couple missing from each and those segments were disregarded). Chase was faster in 109 of those 154 segments!! Webb, 43.
Through lap 10, Chase had a lead of 8.2 seconds with 4.7 coming just from the whoops.
Through lap 20, Chase had a lead of 14.5 seconds but only 5.4 seconds coming from the whoops. So in the middle of the race, Chase dominated just about everywhere on the track.
Between laps 11 and 12, Chase beat Webb in 15 consecutive segments!
When looking at the race in total, Chase won by a margin of 13.175 seconds (remember there were some segments not counted for each rider, I think about 8 total) with only 1.797 seconds coming from the whoops.
When looking at each segment, here is the breakdown:
S1 23 total (not on lap 1): Chase 15 Webb 8 net lead for Chase .631
S2 23 total (not on lap 1): Chase 15 Webb 8 net lead for Chase .101
S3 20 total (not on lap 1 and missed three other laps): Chase 11 Webb 9 net lead for Chase 1.696
S4 20 total (not on lap 1 and missed three other laps): Chase 15 Webb 5 net lead for Chase 4.682!!!
S5 24 total: Chase 11 Webb 13 net lead for Chase -.685
S6 24 total: Chase 19 Webb 5 net lead for Chase .954
S7 24 total: Chase 19 Webb 5 net lead for Chase 4.075!!!
S8 24 total: Chase 17 Webb 7 net lead for Chase 1.721
Of the 8 segments, Webb had the advantage in only one and that got him a net gain on Chase of less than 1 second. Segments 2 and 3 were the two whoop sections. Chase’s biggest gainers were segments 4 and 7. 4 was the on/off into triple after the whoops (Chase was consistently hitting that). Segment 7 had the two doubles after the big triple.
The one segment that Webb won was 5 and that was the big, long rhythm.
After looking all of this over, I think it’s pretty clear that Saturday’s results were not all about the whoops. Chase handled Webb in almost every area of the track. But this is only numbers. And I have no idea how accurate they are. And Saturday could be the complete opposite. Anyway, I love digging into shit like this so figured I’d post it.
I think Webb has big swings in motivation based on his current assessment of risk reward and the big picture of the championship and his position in it. He does not try to win every race the way some other racers do. When he is in the right position on the right track with the right setup, he will push the risk factor. When he's not feeling it, he will back off and take what's due. Call it smart or call it lazy, he seems to win when he can and its necessary.
I just want to say thanks for spending the time and posting all of that, super interesting and informative man.
Super interesting. I did think it was 90% because of the whoops
Nice analysis, should we have to handicap Webbb’s times since he’s recovering from gun shot wounds?
The Shop
DeCal Works Huge Plastic Inventory of UFO and Polisport kits.
Luxon 4-Post Bar Mounts
$189.95 - $239.95
Free shipping: VITALMX
The way I figure it: After an early try... Webb knew he couldn't keep up because of the whoops and backed it down to take 2nd without risking finishing worse than 2nd
This is a chess game at this point and Webb is a master at the game.
Webb will need to draw on his mental toughness these next couple of weeks. He did look and sound a bit like he had just been knocked down in the 10th round of a title fight that he was leading 6 rounds to 4 with 2 to go and his opponent showing a second wind.
Old school sports fans will get it..,
Whoops are Supercross and we need them back like mid 2000s. Back then you couldn't be bad at whoops and get a podium. Stewart and Reed must laugh watching them hop though 9 whoops...
At least we had two section this week.
Thanks for this, and thanks ChatGPT for the summary:
Although many attributed Sexton's win to his performance in the whoops, a detailed segment analysis shows he consistently outperformed Webb across nearly the entire track, with only a small portion of his overall lead actually coming from the whoop sections.
Sure thing! I love stats.
I think for a couple races Webb can play it safe and assume that Chase will make a mistake somewhere in the latter part of the season. As it is right now Chase probably has no room for error. I don't like using the one guy first/one guy second scenario usually but it really is clear that no one is going to beat Chase or Webb unless they make a mistake.
The one guy that I could see spoiling the party would be Cooper. Let's say he gets a holeshot and Webb/Sexton start mid pack. He's got the speed to check out. I think that's a bit of a stretch but I do think it's possible.
If I'm Webb I probably continue to play it safe this weekend and then reevaluate should Chase in again.
Man, those Arlington points are looming LARGE for Chase right now.
In terms of the speed argument: Take it away AI!
Based on data from the 2025 AMA Supercross season, Chase Sexton consistently demonstrates superior raw speed compared to Cooper Webb, particularly evident in qualifying sessions and lap times during races.
Well there it is, despite what all the expert commentary has been saying, the whoops were only a small part of Sexton’s advantage. Thanks tuttle.
I don’t believe Webb was playing it safe or backed it down. He said he was going to kick Chase’s ass this weekend, and he was dejected on the podium. That was a straight up beating. The best Cooper could hope for was a mistake that never came.
The big question is, can Sexton keep this up? Because we know Webb will be there regardless.
The whoop thing is funny. Everyone says Mookie is the best in the whoops because of the round Chase crashed in them. 2 weeks later, Chase passed Mookie through the whoops. No one mentioned it.
It was pretty clear to me Chase was faster almost everywhere not just the whoops. The stats are cool though haha
I was really hoping he would yank the lead out to 30+ seconds. I can’t remember the last time I saw someone do that if ever in sx. Maybe MC or JS or something? Chat GPT can’t find a bigger margin besides chases other 18 second gap win in Salt Lake City 2023.
I did notice this and thought that was pretty ironic lol
Webb will need to choose one round to go out and beat Sexton straight up in the last 3 races to win the title,
and he chose not to try it on saturday night as he was no where near him, wise choice imo,
great analysis, in the press conference coop really seemed to be trying to convince himself that he didnt just get beat as bad as he did and it was only cuz of the whoops, especially with the “probably shouldve been a bigger gap” comment. it’ll be interesting to see how this weekend goes although im sure webb will be just as strong as always, cant doubt that guy
Pit Row
was funny that only chase and webb were consistently doing that long single to landing ontop of the table out of the corner..3rd place and down said fuck that lol
Yes, Chase took this race not just the whoops. It wasn't handed to him by Webb managing the championship.
With such a depleted field these guys are going to run 1,2 to the end unless mud and/or wild things happen. The only one left who can regularly keep up when healthy is Ken, and he's riding with a hurt shoulder.
AP was doing it.
He did. He told us emphatically last week in Philly. Then…
Very nice breakdown! Just watching the race I thought the whoops were the difference but there was more to it. Chase was flying everywhere - I don’t know if anyone could have beat him on Saturday. If he keeps riding like that then he’ll lock this up and nobody should shit on him because of who isn’t there. But that’s a big if. Would like to see it. But he’s got little room for error and thus far he’s been error prone. He has a chance to throw that narrative in the trash and build a new narrative.
At this point, he has to show us he has it…. After what I just watched, I’m not sure he does.
i agree, i thought the north east swing would favour Webb, but the Sexton that disappeared in the main saturday night was something else,
I don't know why you got three downvotes for this. You're exactly right: all Webb has to do is beat Sexton once - at any position, that is - and he'll be in the position to take 2nds and win the title. If it's a mudder this weekend and Cooper takes 15th while Sexton takes 16th, that will do it.
I agree with you that CW backed it off and just coasted in. The real question is: Did he back it off cause he knew he was going to get his doors blown off regardless? And if so, that's gotta have a serious confidence impact on him, no matter how mentally tough we all want to think he is. He KNOWS how important it is to win these races, and he got flat smoked. It'll be interesting to see his response on Saturday. If he doesn't finish in front of Chase, I think it's Chase's to win. That last race cannot be ignored....
I wouldn't say he "coasted" in.... wasn't he up 10 seconds over 3rd place? Webb isn't going to risk going balls out when he knew Chase owned his ass in the whoops. Too much risk. Cash in the 2nd and wait till the next week, he still has the buffer in his favor. Chess.
Gonna be an interesting final 3 races.
There were other guys doing it, it’s just that Chase was the only one linking it by going off the table and over the next single then tripling into the corner, making it a fluid line that carried a ton of momentum. Webb was rolling down the face of the table and doubling which killed his momentum. I haven’t looked closely at sector times but that line alone made a huge difference for lap times
Chase picked up less than two seconds on him in the whoops over the course of the entire main event. That's kind of the point of this thread.
Webb got smoked, no big deal.
Post a reply to: Sexton/Webb East Rutherford Breakdown