Will Mike be a threat

He'll get holeshots like he always does. Until he improves his ability in the whoops though, top 5 will be considered a good night for him.

NO threat.

No threat. He hasn't been a threat in years, and now the competition is tougher than ever. Unless someone makes a mistake, or injury he won't be top 5

no woops = this weeks race was his best chance to win.

I don't know guys, I think your whoop argument is over. Last year he was markedly better in the whoops. If he still struggled like he did on the 350 through them I would validate that argument, but I think it's all but gone.

I think it'll be tough, especially when they go to 20 laps and while the field is full. But he's as determined as anyone, so it's possible he'll play a spoiler or better role. It's be great for the fans of good racing if he does.

lucero10x wrote: for a podium from week to week? Has he gotten better at SX and could he hold off a Dungey or Reed with 5 to go? I think Barcia would get around him just because he is so aggro, as well as RV, but we all know James is a wild card and Trey's starts aren't that great so he will be coming from behind more often than not. Sure, if the stars align any of these guys can win one, but on a week to week basis, will Mikey be a threat for the box?

No.


P

Well I guess we can't believe the hype. No, he won't be a factor. A solid 8th to 12th most nights.

Actually Mike went pretty good thru the whoops this year. And lets not forget that he was the only rider to race every race this year...he doesn't look back as much as he used too. He has a couple months to get ready and I say every time he lines up he will be a threat....if you don't believe me just ask Bobby!

I like Mike, He is a true competitor, good luck to Mike.

Top 5 threat will be good for him.

I think he is a threat for the top 5... People are going to make mistakes and he is very focused and steady. One of the dark horses for sure.

Starts are massive in SX but i dont recall him getting nearly as many holeshots indoors as he does outdoors. I could be wrong about that and usually am.

Theres alot of guys that i would rate as better SX riders than Mike, quite a few that weren't at the monster cup. Top 5 on his best night i think is all he can hope for. Solid 10th to 15th though if he stays healthy and thats not to shabby at all.

lucero10x wrote: for a podium from week to week? Has he gotten better at SX and could he hold off a Dungey or Reed with 5 to go? I think Barcia would get around him just because he is so aggro, as well as RV, but we all know James is a wild card and Trey's starts aren't that great so he will be coming from behind more often than not. Sure, if the stars align any of these guys can win one, but on a week to week basis, will Mikey be a threat for the box?

Wish we could get the good stuff here on the east coast!!

Will he be a podium threat from week to week? I don't think so. I do think he's a realistic threat for one or two podiums though.

Markout wrote: No threat. He hasn't been a threat in years, and now the competition is tougher than ever. Unless someone makes a mistake, or injury he won't be top 5

He's been injured most of those 5 years, damn dumb ass canucks.. Mike will continue to kick ass.

Here are a list of riders that are better at SX than Mike:

Villopoto
Reed
Dungey
Canard
Barcia
Stewart
Windham
Wilson
Milsaps
Short
Weimer
Tickle
Brayton
Grant
Hansen

So, long answer made short: no.

Bullshit.

lumpy790 wrote: no woops = this weeks race was his best chance to win.

Yep, the MEC was the best-case (SX) scenario as far as Mike is concerned. Not taking anything away from MA, I think his current program is as good as it's been in a while, he's just not a great SX rider...never has been.

I'm a fan, but nope.

Yeah I think top 5 is more realistic as a good night, maybe the occasional podium too. Definitely inside the top 10 though. I think Mike has rightly gained much more confidence with his performances over the past year and, along with his starts, will no doubt be a factor.

Crashinskinoff wrote: Bullshit.

Good point. It's hard to argue with such a valid statement...

How many of those riders do you think Alessi will regularly beat in SX? Now, I understand that there are going to be nights that he's not beaten by all 15 of those riders, but I can promise you that he doesn't get a single podium this indoor SX season.

Which reminds me, I made a bet with BobbyM and ModKiller, for $10 and $20 respectively, that Alessi wouldn't get a single OA this season... maybe I should cash in.

Yes he will be a top10 threat like Weimer, Milsaps, Tickle, Metty, Short, Wilsson. the top dogs need to have bad luck for any of these guys to even get a top5

Grieby54 wrote: Here are a list of riders that are better at SX than Mike:

Villopoto
Reed
Dungey
Canard
Barcia
Stewart
Windham
Wilson
Milsaps
Short
Weimer
Tickle
Brayton
Grant
Hansen

So, long answer made short: no.

I agree with most of that list, most of the time. I think we can throw out;

Short
Grant
Hansen
Windham
Brayton
Weimer

Now for the actual fast guys;

Wilson is going to be a wild card.
James is going to finish on the box only 50% of the time.
Millsaps can't start
Tickle will rarely start up front

That leaves the guys who will usually beat him;

Villopoto who will always be there on the start
Barcia will always be there on the start and when he isn't he will push his way forward, quickly
Dungey typically a good starter who isn't too aggressive because he keeps the long view
Canard, who can definitely beat Mikey but rarely starts in the top 10.
Reed will typically be there but isn't all that aggressive because he also keeps the long view.

It's going to be fun to watch, for sure.

lucero10x wrote: I agree with most of that list, most of the time. I think we can throw out;

Short
Grant
Hansen
Windham
Brayton
Weimer

Now for the actual fast guys;

Wilson is going to be a wild card.
James is going to finish on the box only 50% of the time.
Millsaps can't start
Tickle will rarely start up front

That leaves the guys who will usually beat him;

Villopoto who will always be there on the start
Barcia will always be there on the start and when he isn't he will push his way forward, quickly
Dungey typically a good starter who isn't too aggressive because he keeps the long view
Canard, who can definitely beat Mikey but rarely starts in the top 10.
Reed will typically be there but isn't all that aggressive because he also keeps the long view.

It's going to be fun to watch, for sure.

You're kidding me... right?

You're going to throw our Short, who won a main event in 2012, and finished top 3 in the Supercross class every year except for last year due to injury.
You're going to throw out Windham, who was the only one to ever consistently separate the top 5 in 2011, and was looking as fast as ever and had multiple podiums before injury in 2012.
You're going to throw out Grant, who actually had a podium finish last year despite being injured most of the season, and has won a main event.
You're going to throw out Brayton and Weimer, both of which finished ahead of Alessi in the points standings last year and had multiple podiums to their credit.

There's literally no way that you can logically argue that Alessi is better than any of those guys that you wanted to "throw out." There's no way. You're talking about a guy who has NEVER won a single SX main event (or even a heat race that I'm aware of), and has, I think, 3 podiums in his whole SX career? Every single one of those people mentioned has won at least 1 main event (Lites or SX), and 10 of them have a championship (11 if you count Dean's MX championship) to their credit.

Here's a list of guys that will absolutely beat him on a regular basis (when healthy):
-RV
-RD
-CR
-TC
-JBarcia
-JS
-DW
-KW

Here's a list of guys that will beat him more often than he beats them:
-JW
-DM
-AS
-BT
-JBrayton
-JG

If I were Mike Alessi...I'd build an entire track with the most gnarly whoops I'd ever seen...it'd go...start, corner, whooops, corner, whoops, corner, whoops, corner, whoops, corner, whoops, corner, start straight, corner...

They are a deal breaker for him in Supercross...and it's a confidence/mental thing in my opinion as he certainly has the talent and the drive...If he can get those dialed, he's a top five threat along with about 10 or 15 other riders (I say top five because even on his best day, on a track with no whoops he doesn't beat RV, RD, CR, JS).

Grieby54 wrote: You're kidding me... right?

You're going to throw our Short, who won a main event in 2012, and finished top 3 in the Supercross class every year except for last year due to injury.
You're going to throw out Windham, who was the only one to ever consistently separate the top 5 in 2011, and was looking as fast as ever and had multiple podiums before injury in 2012.
You're going to throw out Grant, who actually had a podium finish last year despite being injured most of the season, and has won a main event.
You're going to throw out Brayton and Weimer, both of which finished ahead of Alessi in the points standings last year and had multiple podiums to their credit.

There's literally no way that you can logically argue that Alessi is better than any of those guys that you wanted to "throw out." There's no way. You're talking about a guy who has NEVER won a single SX main event (or even a heat race that I'm aware of), and has, I think, 3 podiums in his whole SX career? Every single one of those people mentioned has won at least 1 main event (Lites or SX), and 10 of them have a championship (11 if you count Dean's MX championship) to their credit.

Here's a list of guys that will absolutely beat him on a regular basis (when healthy):
-RV
-RD
-CR
-TC
-JBarcia
-JS
-DW
-KW

Here's a list of guys that will beat him more often than he beats them:
-JW
-DM
-AS
-BT
-JBrayton
-JG

Short got 3rd on the KTM? And Mikey is as good as Brayton for sure. And mike KILLED Weimer in Vegas...

...no

Grieby54 wrote: Here are a list of riders that are better at SX than Mike:

Villopoto
Reed
Dungey
Canard
Barcia
Stewart
Windham
Wilson
Milsaps
Short
Weimer
Tickle
Brayton
Grant
Hansen

So, long answer made short: no.

lucero10x wrote: I agree with most of that list, most of the time. I think we can throw out;

Short
Grant
Hansen
Windham
Brayton
Weimer

Now for the actual fast guys;

Wilson is going to be a wild card.
James is going to finish on the box only 50% of the time.
Millsaps can't start
Tickle will rarely start up front

That leaves the guys who will usually beat him;

Villopoto who will always be there on the start
Barcia will always be there on the start and when he isn't he will push his way forward, quickly
Dungey typically a good starter who isn't too aggressive because he keeps the long view
Canard, who can definitely beat Mikey but rarely starts in the top 10.
Reed will typically be there but isn't all that aggressive because he also keeps the long view.

It's going to be fun to watch, for sure.

Grieby54 wrote: You're kidding me... right?

You're going to throw our Short, who won a main event in 2012, and finished top 3 in the Supercross class every year except for last year due to injury.
You're going to throw out Windham, who was the only one to ever consistently separate the top 5 in 2011, and was looking as fast as ever and had multiple podiums before injury in 2012.
You're going to throw out Grant, who actually had a podium finish last year despite being injured most of the season, and has won a main event.
You're going to throw out Brayton and Weimer, both of which finished ahead of Alessi in the points standings last year and had multiple podiums to their credit.

There's literally no way that you can logically argue that Alessi is better than any of those guys that you wanted to "throw out." There's no way. You're talking about a guy who has NEVER won a single SX main event (or even a heat race that I'm aware of), and has, I think, 3 podiums in his whole SX career? Every single one of those people mentioned has won at least 1 main event (Lites or SX), and 10 of them have a championship (11 if you count Dean's MX championship) to their credit.

Here's a list of guys that will absolutely beat him on a regular basis (when healthy):
-RV
-RD
-CR
-TC
-JBarcia
-JS
-DW
-KW

Here's a list of guys that will beat him more often than he beats them:
-JW
-DM
-AS
-BT
-JBrayton
-JG

I hear ya. I am fucking with you, a little. But...

Grant has a some work left to do but is almost there, which would be super cool to see him make a return to running up front, but he is just so damn fragile.
Short is where I am stretching the most, but we'll find out.
Windham didn't make it through all last season and is pretty much in his twilight (I'm a HUGE fan of Windham) and starts have been his achilles heel, too.
Brayton and Weimer are seriously under performing at this point and pretty much did all summer, too.
Hansen, if he gets that SX only ride on RCH I'll have to rethink him, but as of now he has no team.

Mike's lap times at the MEC are top tier times. I think he is on the upswing as well as Grant but the other guys in that group of six are currently on a downward trend. Sure, it's hopeful thinking on my part...but if you are only as good as your last race...Not that I am rooting against any guys, just hoping Mikey can break out solidly into the top tier.