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334th
Edited Date/Time
11/8/2014 9:54pm
Ok, this has all been hashed out 9 ways to Sunday, with everyone weighing in on their side of the fence.......
But, what's a reasonable end game to get the big 4 producing two stoke race bikes again?
Here's the conundrum as we stand.....
-4 stroke sales are good
- KTM is making moves, and selling out their 2 stroke stock yearly
- KTM 4 stroke SX sales dwarf 2 stroke
- and Yamaha is looking at their 2 stroke sales thinking they don't warrant R&D dollars
The problem is the used 2-stroke market. It never moves a needle or reaches desks in Japan. They don't grasp the market for 08 RM250's and the such.
My overall point, is how do desk jockeys in Japan get the massage from used bike sales? Does KTM release a DI 2-stroke and change the game to the point they just now compete?
But, what's a reasonable end game to get the big 4 producing two stoke race bikes again?
Here's the conundrum as we stand.....
-4 stroke sales are good
- KTM is making moves, and selling out their 2 stroke stock yearly
- KTM 4 stroke SX sales dwarf 2 stroke
- and Yamaha is looking at their 2 stroke sales thinking they don't warrant R&D dollars
The problem is the used 2-stroke market. It never moves a needle or reaches desks in Japan. They don't grasp the market for 08 RM250's and the such.
My overall point, is how do desk jockeys in Japan get the massage from used bike sales? Does KTM release a DI 2-stroke and change the game to the point they just now compete?
What is this mythical DI 2 stroke everyone speaks of?
Everyone that wants a 2T should go out and buy a NEW one. Husky/KTM/Yamaha/Gas Gas/TM/etc. Enough people buy new and the land of the rising sun may [I repeat may] take notice.
The only problem with that idea is availability of dealers. The Japanese dealers are on every corner while the boutique bike dealers are few and far between.
I'm not holding my breath.
The Shop
It will cost lots and lots of R&D money to produce even a re-hashed 2008 motorcycle with new plastic. (I bet someone at Yamaha can confirm for me.) In order to spend that money, a manufacturer will have to have a reasonable assurance that they will reap a return on investment. To be assured, they look at sales data.
Sadly, the sales data from 1998 onward presents a stark reality: people bought more and more 4-strokes, and fewer and fewer 2-strokes. Extrapolating the data no doubt shows only a very mild resurgence in new 2-stroke sales over the past 2-3 years, even with continued improvement by KTM and now Husqvarna. For a manufacturer to throw their hat into a very small ring in hopes of capturing a slice of market share doesn't make much sense to the bean counters. Even if they create some Earth-shattering 2-stroke that corners the market, the truth is that market is hardly any bigger than the one for CRF50s, and probably much smaller than the market for scooters. It does not make economic sense.
There is only one thing that will bring back 2-strokes: people must stop buying new thumpers and start buying new 2-strokes - in very big numbers.
It really is as simple as a money thing.
But for us guys ( like me ).....I like them both. Like riding them both. I love my 4 stroke 450 and I love my 2 stroke 250.
But if I was given a choice to have to rebuild one........of course it would be the 2 stroke hands down. Because I could do it myself. I look at my 450.....and confusion sets in. Well.....that and I see my bank account taking a big hit haha.
To reproduce all that now, as well as the investment in retooling/setting up an assembly line is BIG $$$s. I guarantee they have looked at bringing 2-strokes back (They aren't dumb), and have decided that the margin and bike sales aren't there anymore to justify the huge reinvestment.
Why is KTM different? They are a much smaller company, and have the flexibility to change directions as a company whenever they want. (Fewer levels of Execs to go through to make things happen).
Like how many two strokes vs four strokes they sell every year?
Edit:
Just found this link:
http://blog.motorcycle.com/2014/01/21/manufacturers/ktm/ktm-announces-r…
"The Austrian manufacturer sold 123,859 motorcycles in 2013, compared to the previous annual sales record of 107,142 motorcycles set in 2012"
But that includes street bikes too.
I think the first domino required to fall will be a professional rules change allowing equal displacement. Once that happens, and a bulk of privateers and a few factory-ish guys are on a YZ or KTM 250 2-stroke I think Kawisaki and Suzuki will take notice and POSSIBABLY re-enter the market. With that said, it'll never happen..... And this is all pointless speculation, but I've been trying to conjure up a scenario where someone starts production again, and R&D dollars are invested, but I can't.
Hell, even the almighty KTM is just a 8 year old motor in a 250f frame. There isn't really any R&D there either. We'll see if the DI comes to furition or not.....
The 2015 250 and 125 both have different engine cases, cylinders, pistons, flywheels, ignitions, reeds,pipes,... than the 2007 models.
The 250 even has a diferent size carburetor (not sure when it was changed, i believe 07 but it could be 06) and the dds clutch.
Also they have a different frame geometry than the 250f.
In my opinion the only manufacturer that could possibly make a new two stroke bike would be kawasaki since they just updated their 85.
Pit Row
Just look at Kalib Russell smoking all the factory 450's on a 150 2 stroke. Honda will probably complain to the ama about the
advantage of a 150 2 stroke and have the ama change the rules to dissallow a smaller size bike to run in the 450 class.
Post a reply to: The 2-stroke conundrum....