Posts
1049
Joined
7/25/2010
Location
Leominster, MA
US
Feint
1/17/2015 6:57pm
1/17/2015 6:57pm
Edited Date/Time
5/11/2015 8:53pm
I've been working on adapting the Elo rating system used in chess(among other things) for supercross. I'm doing individual seasons and career ratings, but only this season is ready right now. For the career ratings I am starting from 2006 when the majority of the field switched to 450s. The way the rating works, DNFs hurt a lot. I'm thinking of a way to lessen the impact when it is a mechanical DNF, but that is not implemented yet.
450 Class
250 West Class
450 Class
250 West Class
I would also use a K value of 32.
Here is an update for tonight. Riders that have not made every main are not included. They will be included if they have raced at least 75% of the mains.
450 Class
250 West Class
The Shop
It will take a few more races before riders begin to settle into the ratings they should have. I'm mostly just doing the single season ratings as an experiment. I am working on career ratings that would be a bit more accurate, but the amount of data entry I have to do for that is a bit daunting.
450 Class
Here we can see the effect one bad race can have on a riders rating. Roczen had a decent lead, but his 15th place finish last week actually dropped him down into 4th in the ratings behind Dungey, Canard, and Tomac. Speaking of Tomac, he has made a big recovery from his awful start to the season. I expect to see Roczen's rating recover some this week as I doubt he will have two bad races in a row.
250 West Class
The 250 class has been a bit more consistent with only Justin Hill losing rating. Webb and Bowers are showing themselves to be the class of the field. You can also see how Malcolm Stewart has had a similar recovery in the ratings as Tomac has in the 450 class.
http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/projects/trueskill/details.aspx
Also you may want to give Glicko2 a scan. Might be a little better for you if you haven't.
450 Class
Ryan Dungey continues to be the most consistent top finisher and it shows in his rating. However, one bad race could change things up significantly. Cole Seely has also shown up in the top 5 for the first time this season due to his improvement each week.
250 West
Cooper Webb continues to dominant in the 250 class. He crashed in practice today and it remains to be seen how that will affect his racing tonight. Due to his bad race last week, Tyler Bowers has fallen outside the top 5. I expect to see him recover tonight and regain his spot.
Knowing that bad results or no results skew the results, what do we learn from that? should you not drop a rider from the problem when or based on a % representative to some baseline?
Post a reply to: Supercross Elo Ratings