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Joined
4/1/2008
Location
GB
Edited Date/Time
4/20/2014 4:56am
Here's an interesting stat for the anal people out there...
So, the other guys appear to have caught up with Herlings in MX2 this year. He's not been so dominant and has been beaten a couple of times. (Of course he has also just come back from an injury).
However, how do we know whether JH is slower, or whether the MX2 guys have become faster this year? (as my buddy Geoff likes to think).
You can't just look JH's lap times from last year (compared to the chasing MX2 riders) because that won't tell you whether he's slower or the others faster. And of course, lap times on any given track change from year to year. (Trentino was around a 1min 45 this year compared to 2m 00 last year.)
However, perhaps we need to look at a different datum point for comparison? - the 450 class?
So, what I did was this:
1. Work out the average fastest lap for the top five of the 450 class at Trentino last year. (Not average lap, but the average of the top 5 riders' best lap of the race).
At Trentino 2013 the 450 class 'best lap' average for the top five 450s, across both motos, was 2:00.3.
2. Then I did the same for Herlings. His average best lap over the two motos in 2013 was 2:00.0 (ie he was 99.84% of the 450 lap time, so in fact he was a fraction FASTER than the 450s)
3. Then I did the same for the top five 250 guys (excluding Herlings). Their average fast lap, across both motos, was 2:01.5. (ie they were on average 101.05% of the 450 guys best lap average, or in other words they were 1.05% slower than the 450s.
So, in 2013, at Trentino, Herlings was a tiny bit faster than the top five 450 guys and the next five 250 guys behind Herlings were 1.05% slower than the 450s.
Now, looking at the same stats for 2014, again from Trentino:
The top five 450 guys averaged a fast lap of 1:44.5.
Herlings averaged a fast lap of 1:45.8 (101.25%, or 1.25% slower than the 450s)
The top five 250 guys excluding JH, averaged a fast lap of 1:45.9 (101.34%, or 1.34% slower than the 450s)
So, what does this tell us?
The top five 250 guys (excluding JH) were 1.05% slower than the 450s last year, and 1.34% slower this year. Not much in that.
JH was 0.16% faster than the 450s last year but 1.25% slower this year.
So assuming that the 450 class speed/talent level has stayed the same from last year to now, it looks like the 250 guys haven't gotten any faster relative to the 450s but Herlings is going a bit slower.
Doesn't mean anything though as of course he's just come back from injury etc, but it killed an hour on my lunch break...
So, the other guys appear to have caught up with Herlings in MX2 this year. He's not been so dominant and has been beaten a couple of times. (Of course he has also just come back from an injury).
However, how do we know whether JH is slower, or whether the MX2 guys have become faster this year? (as my buddy Geoff likes to think).
You can't just look JH's lap times from last year (compared to the chasing MX2 riders) because that won't tell you whether he's slower or the others faster. And of course, lap times on any given track change from year to year. (Trentino was around a 1min 45 this year compared to 2m 00 last year.)
However, perhaps we need to look at a different datum point for comparison? - the 450 class?
So, what I did was this:
1. Work out the average fastest lap for the top five of the 450 class at Trentino last year. (Not average lap, but the average of the top 5 riders' best lap of the race).
At Trentino 2013 the 450 class 'best lap' average for the top five 450s, across both motos, was 2:00.3.
2. Then I did the same for Herlings. His average best lap over the two motos in 2013 was 2:00.0 (ie he was 99.84% of the 450 lap time, so in fact he was a fraction FASTER than the 450s)
3. Then I did the same for the top five 250 guys (excluding Herlings). Their average fast lap, across both motos, was 2:01.5. (ie they were on average 101.05% of the 450 guys best lap average, or in other words they were 1.05% slower than the 450s.
So, in 2013, at Trentino, Herlings was a tiny bit faster than the top five 450 guys and the next five 250 guys behind Herlings were 1.05% slower than the 450s.
Now, looking at the same stats for 2014, again from Trentino:
The top five 450 guys averaged a fast lap of 1:44.5.
Herlings averaged a fast lap of 1:45.8 (101.25%, or 1.25% slower than the 450s)
The top five 250 guys excluding JH, averaged a fast lap of 1:45.9 (101.34%, or 1.34% slower than the 450s)
So, what does this tell us?
The top five 250 guys (excluding JH) were 1.05% slower than the 450s last year, and 1.34% slower this year. Not much in that.
JH was 0.16% faster than the 450s last year but 1.25% slower this year.
So assuming that the 450 class speed/talent level has stayed the same from last year to now, it looks like the 250 guys haven't gotten any faster relative to the 450s but Herlings is going a bit slower.
Doesn't mean anything though as of course he's just come back from injury etc, but it killed an hour on my lunch break...
But interesting that the MX2 guys aren't going any faster relative to the 450s class, based on this one snapshot analysis.
[youtube]oFuXtEhdy0Y[/youtube]
He said it himself. For the last couple of weeks he only did one day of riding and rest the other day because he was sore from riding. At the GP's he must do 2 days of riding so he is struggling on Sunday.
His speed is also not there yet. Only doing longer session on the bike but wants to start on short sprint sessions soon to get back up to speed.
My bet is he will take it easy again this weekend at Bulgaria, use the weekend off the get in better shape and will kill it at Valkenswaard in 2 weeks.
The Shop
The other guys are faster this year no doubt. The 450 guys are too
both.
Personnaly, from what I've seen since Losail, I would say that JH is not at his habitual level right now.
It gives better racing for sure in the MX2 class this year...
Cairoli crashing around all day, Herlings fighting to keep up...
Looking at the races these 2 guys weren't having an easy ride on their bikes were they?
Both of theirKTM's were not easy to keep under control at this kind of track.
Both were having big suspension trouble all day.
Look at the races again and watch both of their bikes being a handfull.
Just my 2 cents....
And I also doubt that the entire top five of the 450s have all got faster.
I think Jeffrey is just a little slower because he's been hurt and will naturally be out of practice as a result.
What is interesting in all of this though is that he was so dominant last year that I doubt anyone even thought that they had a chance against him. Rather like Tiger Woods when he was dominating. Now Jeffrey's been hurt and has been beaten it remains to be seen whether his perceived invincibility has been shattered and the chasing riders can now smell blood. Again just like when Tiger Woods came back and got beaten.
Can Herlings reassert his authority on the class or will the others find the confidence to take it to him? We will see.
He'll get back to stomping them soon I'd imagine, least it is somewhat interesting for now!
" The pace doesn't look outrageous". Good stuff there. All it needed was a "stamp it" behind it to give it more cred.
Regarding comparisons to 2013, they changed the part in the back of the track, so there is no way you can compare 2013 to 2014.
Pit Row
And yeah you have to laugh
This year not so much. Nothing funny about it!
Last year he was just wanted to prove a point and break records, he was pinned every race and wanting to lap every rider. This year he doesn't have to prove anything. He's riding much smarter, doing what it takes to stand on the top step.
The only round i expect that the change is Valkenswaard, where he'll be out to lap the field in front of his home fans
It would be interesting to review the gap charts between Herlings and 2nd place this year to last (for comparable races), Valkenswaard would be a good place to start, i might check this out after round 6
and yes, Derpin'... he's also apparently a pretty awesome dude, whoever he is
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