2014 450F US Outdoor MX Nationals Analysis - Quarter Grades

bd
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6/8/2014 5:54pm Edited Date/Time 6/8/2014 10:15pm
Ken “KROC” Roczen – Grade A+

Currently, he is the fastest motocrosser in the United States. His technique, speed, and fitness have improved from his 250F career and I expect him to grow from Year 1 to Year 2 and Year 2 to Year 3 in the 450F class exponentially. Hence, his competition better explore their programs or they will be left behind. One of Ken Roczen’s greatest strengths, is to venture out of his comfort zone, to explore his program and make change – working with Aldon Baker and Ryan Villopoto have helped significantly. On round 1, 2 and 3 (moto 2) Roczen had the fastest lap. With 9 races to go, he is the favorite to win the title.

Ryan “The Diesel” Dungey – Grade B+ (he was the favorite to win the title before Round 1)

Ryan Dungey is one of the greatest motocrossers of all time. He is the Wardy to Johnson in the present era. Dungey has sound technique and fitness. Unlike Roczen, Dungey stays within his comfort zone (he finally hired a trainer for 2014 Supercross – attrition assisted Dungey in the final points). Unfortunately, this will limit his growth in the sport. Both Ryan Villopoto and Ken Roczen are faster than Dungey and its product of their program. Dungey has the fitness, technique, and talent to race any rider in the current era. At the quarter, he has one moto win and overall at arguable the most challenging race in the circuit. However, to beat Baker’s riders for titles, he will have to make changes to his program.

James “Bubba” Stewart – Grade B -

Arguably the most talented rider in the history of the sport, James Stewart was struggling to keep up with the top riders at Rounds 1 and 2. At round 3, Stewart proves to the industry, fans, and competition he still has the speed and fitness when he wins moto 1 at Colorado. If bike set-up is truly the issue (he had months to set up for Supercross and came out blazing fast Round 1 supercross), Suzuki needs to hire a test rider to assist James in his quest for titles. He has the speed, fitness, technique to race any rider – does he have the health and team infrastructure to compete against KTM (did I really say that?)

Trey Canard – Grade A -

Trey Canard is returning from numerous injuries that would have ended the majority of rider’s motocross careers. From broken back to broken femurs, Trey Canard has the will to compete at the highest level in motocross. It is “will” that makes him extremely dangerous to the competition. If he can limit the big injuries (everyone will have small injuries during the season), he has huge upside. He has speed and technique - example, Round 3 he had the fastest practice lap (faster than Stewart, Roczen, and Dungey – no easy feat). During the race in Colorado (Round 3), he lost concentration, which allowed Dungey and Roczen to pull away from the factory Honda speedster. Canard needs momentum (health), improve his concentration and he will be racing for overall wins – potentially the title.
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bd
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6/8/2014 5:56pm
Feel free to dispute my analysis, mother fuck me (that's most of the poser's ammo) or to add to my quarter write up on the 450F class.
RonSkj
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6/8/2014 6:02pm
Could we get an analysis and grade on JG33?
RonSkj
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6/8/2014 6:04pm
And why does Trey, not get a "nic name" ?
bd
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6/8/2014 6:13pm
RonSkj wrote:
Could we get an analysis and grade on JG33?
Josh Grant – Grade B

Josh Grant has already exceeded anyone’s expectations with his amazing ride at Round 1, Glen Helen. He led every lap, moto 1, at arguably the hardest track on the circuit - winning Moto 1. Grant is blazing fast and on an extremely sound team and bike. However, Round 2, Grant runs into the Grant black cloud and has a dismal race. Round 3, Josh Grant is back in the mix racing right behind the lead pack. Grant needs to stay healthy so he can build on his speed and determination. If Grant had a solid Round 2, I would grade him B+ (no one, but maybe Grant and JGR thought Grant would be racing this pace).


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RonSkj
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6/8/2014 6:19pm
RonSkj wrote:
Could we get an analysis and grade on JG33?
bd wrote:
Josh Grant – Grade B Josh Grant has already exceeded anyone’s expectations with his amazing ride at Round 1, Glen Helen. He led every lap, moto...
Josh Grant – Grade B

Josh Grant has already exceeded anyone’s expectations with his amazing ride at Round 1, Glen Helen. He led every lap, moto 1, at arguably the hardest track on the circuit - winning Moto 1. Grant is blazing fast and on an extremely sound team and bike. However, Round 2, Grant runs into the Grant black cloud and has a dismal race. Round 3, Josh Grant is back in the mix racing right behind the lead pack. Grant needs to stay healthy so he can build on his speed and determination. If Grant had a solid Round 2, I would grade him B+ (no one, but maybe Grant and JGR thought Grant would be racing this pace).


superorbital
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6/8/2014 6:23pm
I just have to argue with the word exponentially - I expect him to grow from Year 1 to Year 2 and Year 2 to Year 3 in the 450F class exponentially. This is impossible. He will continue to grow steadily, but not exponentially. That is all. Laughing
hartebreak
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6/8/2014 6:37pm
I think you are close on most, but you are off on Stew. He is C maybe C+ at this point. James Stewart is a much MUCH better rider than the results this year have shown so far. For him to be finishing where he has been (minus Lakewood) without crashing is a huge letdown. JMO
bd
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6/8/2014 6:41pm
hartebreak wrote:
I think you are close on most, but you are off on Stew. He is C maybe C+ at this point. James Stewart is a much...
I think you are close on most, but you are off on Stew. He is C maybe C+ at this point. James Stewart is a much MUCH better rider than the results this year have shown so far. For him to be finishing where he has been (minus Lakewood) without crashing is a huge letdown. JMO
Agree 110% - Lakewood was his saving grace with my analysis. Both of you are correct, Sewie is probably a C+ or B - overall
6/8/2014 6:45pm
hartebreak wrote:
I think you are close on most, but you are off on Stew. He is C maybe C+ at this point. James Stewart is a much...
I think you are close on most, but you are off on Stew. He is C maybe C+ at this point. James Stewart is a much MUCH better rider than the results this year have shown so far. For him to be finishing where he has been (minus Lakewood) without crashing is a huge letdown. JMO
bd wrote:
Agree 110% - Lakewood was his saving grace with my analysis. Both of you are correct, Sewie is probably a C+ or B - overall
lakewood he would of got an A- at best especially considering its james stewart. I think his overall would be C overall. You have to remember this is a guy that went 24/0
CR250Rider
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6/8/2014 6:47pm
RonSkj wrote:
And why does Trey, not get a "nic name" ?
I've heard him called Ice-Trey Smile
yak651
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6/8/2014 7:00pm
So you giving Trey a higher grade than Ryan due to Trey coming back from injuries? I know it's popular to downgrade Ryan, but I don't get the reason for this. He quietly goes about his job, has one overall out of 3 races and has been in position to win multiple motos. I think he realizes it's a long season and is just riding in his comfort zone, Kenny could've gone down multiple times the last couple of weeks, I feel he is on the edge pushing while Ryan is just "putting in work". We'll see come the half way point, if this will work out or not.
bd
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6/8/2014 7:38pm
yak651 wrote:
So you giving Trey a higher grade than Ryan due to Trey coming back from injuries? I know it's popular to downgrade Ryan, but I don't...
So you giving Trey a higher grade than Ryan due to Trey coming back from injuries? I know it's popular to downgrade Ryan, but I don't get the reason for this. He quietly goes about his job, has one overall out of 3 races and has been in position to win multiple motos. I think he realizes it's a long season and is just riding in his comfort zone, Kenny could've gone down multiple times the last couple of weeks, I feel he is on the edge pushing while Ryan is just "putting in work". We'll see come the half way point, if this will work out or not.
At Round 2 (Moto 1 and Moto 2) AND Round 3 (Moto 2 - not sure about Moto 1), Roczen had the fastest lap and fastest average lap. He beat Dungey Moto 2 - Colorado, who was right behind him in the beginning of the moto, by 6.5 seconds. Moto 1, Colorado, it was Dungey who crashed. Many people stated this was Dungey's title to lose and he is chasing KROC.

Canard is on it - currently has more upside and has exceeded most fan's expectations.

These are quarter grades and could be radically different at half time.
jloucks742
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6/8/2014 7:52pm
yak651 wrote:
So you giving Trey a higher grade than Ryan due to Trey coming back from injuries? I know it's popular to downgrade Ryan, but I don't...
So you giving Trey a higher grade than Ryan due to Trey coming back from injuries? I know it's popular to downgrade Ryan, but I don't get the reason for this. He quietly goes about his job, has one overall out of 3 races and has been in position to win multiple motos. I think he realizes it's a long season and is just riding in his comfort zone, Kenny could've gone down multiple times the last couple of weeks, I feel he is on the edge pushing while Ryan is just "putting in work". We'll see come the half way point, if this will work out or not.
I think (atleast) part of the grades are based on expectations. Trey was obviously expected to ride well but I dont think anyone thought he would be this good. When people thought Dungey would be racking up overalls i think a B- is perfect. Trey definitely is an A for what hes doing right now
2thefront
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6/8/2014 7:57pm
Roczen has been a surprise so far in that he's been better in 450s than he ever was in 250s outdoors so far. I think working with Aldon is a huge part of that but I still think it will be interesting to see how he does when we get into the really hot and humid part of the schedule. He's struggled with putting two motos together in the past.
level
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6/8/2014 8:02pm
Trey canard is just a beast. Kid has been through so much injury wise. Just an amazing talented rider and great guy.
kiwifan
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6/8/2014 8:48pm
Sounds like good grades to me, what about Reed?
6/8/2014 9:27pm
bd wrote:
Feel free to dispute my analysis, mother fuck me (that's most of the poser's ammo) or to add to my quarter write up on the 450F...
Feel free to dispute my analysis, mother fuck me (that's most of the poser's ammo) or to add to my quarter write up on the 450F class.
"...injuries that would have ended the majority of rider’s motocross careers."

RIDERS' careers. Plural possession, motherfucker.

p.s. I lean towards 'Turbo Trey' myself
bdub
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6/8/2014 10:05pm
Great write up, I agree with your Stewart grade, first two rounds he was painfully disappointing. But... Watching him keep those two KTM's behind him the entire first moto at Lakewood was a thing of beauty and deserving of the higher grade.
Mr. G
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6/8/2014 10:15pm
tracheotomy

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